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UK coronavirus variant found in Malaysia and Singapore
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Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid...l-variant.html
56% more transmissible
found no evidence for greater or lesser severity
Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown
implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction
number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed.
-----------------------------------------------
Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
Status: report | First online: 23-12-2020 | Last update: 23-12-2020
Authors: Nicholas Davies*, Rosanna C Barnard[SUP]1[/SUP], Christopher I Jarvis[SUP]1[/SUP], Adam J Kucharski[SUP]1[/SUP], James D Munday[SUP]1[/SUP], Carl A.B. Pearson[SUP]1[/SUP], Timothy W Russell[SUP]1[/SUP], Damien C Tully[SUP]1[/SUP], Sam Abbott, Amy Gimma, William Waites, Kerry LM Wong, Kevin van Zandvoort, CMMID COVID-19 working group, Rosalind M Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Mark Jit, Katherine E Atkins & W John Edmunds.* corresponding author1 contributed equally
This study has not yet been peer reviewed.
A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01, emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and appears to be rapidly spreading towards fixation. We fitted a two-strain mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to observed COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital and ICU bed occupancy, and deaths; SARS-CoV-2 PCR prevalence and seroprevalence; and the relative frequency of VOC 202012/01 in the three most heavily affected NHS England regions (South East, East of England, and London). We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. We were unable to find clear evidence that VOC 202012/01 results in greater or lesser severity of disease than preexisting variants. Nevertheless, the increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020, even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December are maintained. Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed. We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html
---------------------------------------------------------
Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid...l-variant.html
56% more transmissible
found no evidence for greater or lesser severity
Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown
implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction
number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed.
-----------------------------------------------
Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
Status: report | First online: 23-12-2020 | Last update: 23-12-2020
Authors: Nicholas Davies*, Rosanna C Barnard[SUP]1[/SUP], Christopher I Jarvis[SUP]1[/SUP], Adam J Kucharski[SUP]1[/SUP], James D Munday[SUP]1[/SUP], Carl A.B. Pearson[SUP]1[/SUP], Timothy W Russell[SUP]1[/SUP], Damien C Tully[SUP]1[/SUP], Sam Abbott, Amy Gimma, William Waites, Kerry LM Wong, Kevin van Zandvoort, CMMID COVID-19 working group, Rosalind M Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Mark Jit, Katherine E Atkins & W John Edmunds.* corresponding author1 contributed equally
This study has not yet been peer reviewed.
A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01, emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and appears to be rapidly spreading towards fixation. We fitted a two-strain mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to observed COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital and ICU bed occupancy, and deaths; SARS-CoV-2 PCR prevalence and seroprevalence; and the relative frequency of VOC 202012/01 in the three most heavily affected NHS England regions (South East, East of England, and London). We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. We were unable to find clear evidence that VOC 202012/01 results in greater or lesser severity of disease than preexisting variants. Nevertheless, the increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020, even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December are maintained. Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed. We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html
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