tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Public Health
. 2021 Dec 4;203:15-18.
doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2021.11.023. Online ahead of print.
Excess deaths from COVID-19 in Japan and 47 prefectures from January through June 2021
S Nomura[SUP] 1 [/SUP], A Eguchi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Y Tanoue[SUP] 3 [/SUP], D Yoneoka[SUP] 4 [/SUP], T Kawashima[SUP] 5 [/SUP], M Suzuki[SUP] 6 [/SUP], M Hashizume[SUP] 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Objectives: In Japan, several studies have reported no excess all-cause deaths (the difference between the observed and expected number of deaths) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020. This study aimed to estimate the weekly excess deaths in Japan's 47 prefectures for 2021 until June 27.
Study design: Vital statistical data on deaths were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. For this analysis, we used data from January 2012 to June 2021.
Methods: A quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the expected weekly number of deaths. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the one-sided prediction interval.
Results: Since January 2021, excess deaths were observed for the first time in the week corresponding to April 12-18 and have continued through mid-June, with the highest excess percentage occurring in the week corresponding to May 31-June 6 (excess deaths: 1431-2587; excess percentage: 5.95-10.77%). Similarly, excess deaths were observed in consecutive weeks from April to June 2021 in 18 of 47 prefectures.
Conclusions: For the first time since February 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was reported in Japan, excess deaths possibly related to COVID-19 were observed in April 2021 in Japan, during the fourth wave. This may reflect the deaths of non-infected people owing to the disruption that the pandemic has caused.
. 2021 Dec 4;203:15-18.
doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2021.11.023. Online ahead of print.
Excess deaths from COVID-19 in Japan and 47 prefectures from January through June 2021
S Nomura[SUP] 1 [/SUP], A Eguchi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Y Tanoue[SUP] 3 [/SUP], D Yoneoka[SUP] 4 [/SUP], T Kawashima[SUP] 5 [/SUP], M Suzuki[SUP] 6 [/SUP], M Hashizume[SUP] 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35016070
- DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2021.11.023
Abstract
Objectives: In Japan, several studies have reported no excess all-cause deaths (the difference between the observed and expected number of deaths) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020. This study aimed to estimate the weekly excess deaths in Japan's 47 prefectures for 2021 until June 27.
Study design: Vital statistical data on deaths were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. For this analysis, we used data from January 2012 to June 2021.
Methods: A quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the expected weekly number of deaths. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the one-sided prediction interval.
Results: Since January 2021, excess deaths were observed for the first time in the week corresponding to April 12-18 and have continued through mid-June, with the highest excess percentage occurring in the week corresponding to May 31-June 6 (excess deaths: 1431-2587; excess percentage: 5.95-10.77%). Similarly, excess deaths were observed in consecutive weeks from April to June 2021 in 18 of 47 prefectures.
Conclusions: For the first time since February 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was reported in Japan, excess deaths possibly related to COVID-19 were observed in April 2021 in Japan, during the fourth wave. This may reflect the deaths of non-infected people owing to the disruption that the pandemic has caused.