tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Public Health
. 2021 Jul 20;198:102-105.
doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2021.07.006. Online ahead of print.
National population prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Scotland during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic
N E Palmateer[SUP] 1 [/SUP], E Dickson[SUP] 2 [/SUP], E Furrie[SUP] 3 [/SUP], I Godber[SUP] 4 [/SUP], D J Goldberg[SUP] 5 [/SUP], P Gousias[SUP] 2 [/SUP], L Jarvis[SUP] 6 [/SUP], L Mathie[SUP] 2 [/SUP], S Mavin[SUP] 7 [/SUP], J McMenamin[SUP] 2 [/SUP], T N McNeilly[SUP] 8 [/SUP], P Murcia[SUP] 9 [/SUP], J Murray[SUP] 10 [/SUP], G Reid[SUP] 2 [/SUP], C Robertson[SUP] 11 [/SUP], K Templeton[SUP] 12 [/SUP], B von Wissmann[SUP] 13 [/SUP], L A Wallace[SUP] 2 [/SUP], C Waugh[SUP] 2 [/SUP], A McAuley[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Objectives: Studies that measure the prevalence of antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ('seroprevalence') are essential to understand population exposure to SARS-CoV-2 among symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. We aimed to measure seroprevalence in the Scottish population over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic - from before the first recorded case in Scotland through to the second pandemic wave.
Study design: The study design of this study is serial cross sectional.
Methods: We tested 41,477 residual samples retrieved from primary and antenatal care settings across Scotland for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies over a 12-month period from December 2019-December 2020 (before rollout of COVID-19 vaccination). Five-weekly rolling seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for the sensitivity and specificity of the assays and weighted to reference populations. Temporal trends in seroprevalence estimates and weekly SARS-CoV-2 notifications were compared.
Results: Five-weekly rolling seroprevalence rates were 0% until the end of March, when they increased contemporaneously with the first pandemic wave. Seroprevalence rates remained stable through the summer (range: 3%-5%) during a period of social restrictions, after which they increased concurrently with the second wave, reaching 9.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.4%-10.8%) in the week beginning 28th December in 2020. Seroprevalence rates were lower in rural vs. urban areas (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.61-0.79) and among individuals aged 20-39 years and 60 years and older (AOR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.64-0.86; AOR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.69-0.91, respectively) relative to those aged 0-19 years.
Conclusions: After two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, less than one in ten individuals in the Scottish population had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Seroprevalence may underestimate the true population exposure as a result of waning antibodies among individuals who were infected early in the first wave.
Keywords: Antibodies; COVID-19; Cross sectional; SARS-CoV-2; Seroprevalence.
. 2021 Jul 20;198:102-105.
doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2021.07.006. Online ahead of print.
National population prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Scotland during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic
N E Palmateer[SUP] 1 [/SUP], E Dickson[SUP] 2 [/SUP], E Furrie[SUP] 3 [/SUP], I Godber[SUP] 4 [/SUP], D J Goldberg[SUP] 5 [/SUP], P Gousias[SUP] 2 [/SUP], L Jarvis[SUP] 6 [/SUP], L Mathie[SUP] 2 [/SUP], S Mavin[SUP] 7 [/SUP], J McMenamin[SUP] 2 [/SUP], T N McNeilly[SUP] 8 [/SUP], P Murcia[SUP] 9 [/SUP], J Murray[SUP] 10 [/SUP], G Reid[SUP] 2 [/SUP], C Robertson[SUP] 11 [/SUP], K Templeton[SUP] 12 [/SUP], B von Wissmann[SUP] 13 [/SUP], L A Wallace[SUP] 2 [/SUP], C Waugh[SUP] 2 [/SUP], A McAuley[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34411992
- DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2021.07.006
Abstract
Objectives: Studies that measure the prevalence of antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ('seroprevalence') are essential to understand population exposure to SARS-CoV-2 among symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. We aimed to measure seroprevalence in the Scottish population over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic - from before the first recorded case in Scotland through to the second pandemic wave.
Study design: The study design of this study is serial cross sectional.
Methods: We tested 41,477 residual samples retrieved from primary and antenatal care settings across Scotland for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies over a 12-month period from December 2019-December 2020 (before rollout of COVID-19 vaccination). Five-weekly rolling seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for the sensitivity and specificity of the assays and weighted to reference populations. Temporal trends in seroprevalence estimates and weekly SARS-CoV-2 notifications were compared.
Results: Five-weekly rolling seroprevalence rates were 0% until the end of March, when they increased contemporaneously with the first pandemic wave. Seroprevalence rates remained stable through the summer (range: 3%-5%) during a period of social restrictions, after which they increased concurrently with the second wave, reaching 9.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.4%-10.8%) in the week beginning 28th December in 2020. Seroprevalence rates were lower in rural vs. urban areas (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.61-0.79) and among individuals aged 20-39 years and 60 years and older (AOR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.64-0.86; AOR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.69-0.91, respectively) relative to those aged 0-19 years.
Conclusions: After two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, less than one in ten individuals in the Scottish population had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Seroprevalence may underestimate the true population exposure as a result of waning antibodies among individuals who were infected early in the first wave.
Keywords: Antibodies; COVID-19; Cross sectional; SARS-CoV-2; Seroprevalence.