Question about H1N1 moving into SE Asia

[wotan]

This is a purely speculative question as it really goes beyond my understanding of how influenza works.

If/when the H1N1 swine flu works into SE Asia, areas where H5N1 is prevalent in birds, can it possibly (combine? mutate?) with the H5N1 virus to produce a new variant that is easily transmissible between humans and much more deadly than H1N1 currently seems to be? Since H1N1 contains both swine and avian traits it has apparently happened before, but with a different type of avian influenza.

 

[UtahApoc]

Re: Question about H1N1 moving into SE Asia

This is a purely speculative question as it really goes beyond my understanding of how influenza works.

If/when the H1N1 swine flu works into SE Asia, areas where H5N1 is prevalent in birds, can it possibly (combine? mutate?) with the H5N1 virus to produce a new variant that is easily transmissible between humans and much more deadly than H1N1 currently seems to be? Since H1N1 contains both swine and avian traits it has apparently happened before, but with a different type of avian influenza.

Im by no means scientific at all. I however think this would be the "Nightmare Scenario"

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Question about H1N1 moving into SE Asia

The short answer is yes. The long answer is it will depend on people getting sick simultaneously with both versions of the flu.

 

[wotan]

Re: Question about H1N1 moving into SE Asia

Speculation of course, but are there known cases of swine infection with H5N1? If so, it would seem possible that the H1N1 strain could move back to pigs and use them as a means of mutating with H5N1.

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Question about H1N1 moving into SE Asia

I am not one of the experts here on flu changes. I do seem to recall in some of Dr. Nimans lists of changes, that pigs as well as other creatures did occasionally add to the soup, so to speak. It was extremely rare, however. Someone else with more expertise in the matter really needs to answer your question. AlaskaDenise perhaps.

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Question about H1N1 moving into SE Asia

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=225208#post225208

well your timing was perfect.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Question about H1N1 moving into SE Asia

Speculation of course, but are there known cases of swine infection with H5N1? If so, it would seem possible that the H1N1 strain could move back to pigs and use them as a means of mutating with H5N1.

Shiloh just posted a good answer here:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=101424

But remember, H5N1 pieces have been seen in a variety of species, however, to my knowledge the highly pathogenic mutations (poly-cleavage and Ns/92) haven't gone along for the ride, or as Dr. NIman would say - they haven't gone "hitchhiking" like the tamiflu resistance gene in seasonal H1N1.

.

 

[wotan]

Re: Question about H1N1 moving into SE Asia

to my knowledge the highly pathogenic mutations (poly-cleavage and Ns/92) haven't gone along for the ride, or as Dr. NIman would say - they haven't gone "hitchhiking" like the tamiflu resistance gene in seasonal H1N1.

.

Unfortunately, that is likely to be only a matter of time.

I wonder if something similar could have accounted for the multiple waves of Spanish flu. My understanding is that there was a "mild" outbreak in the spring followed by a very deadly wave in the fall/winter. Perhaps a new, highly infectious but not terribly deadly strain developed. spread, and then cooked with a much more deadly strain that broke out in the later wave(s).

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Question about H1N1 moving into SE Asia

Wotan, we have lots of fabulous historical information as well as a short course in genetics on the first page of flutrackers. I think you will find it just as fascinating. Look and see what actually happened in 1918. We have some archived pictures and stories from survivors, as well as scientific data.

 

[wotan]

Re: Question about H1N1 moving into SE Asia

Thanks for the info. If I had found this board in quieter times I might have been able to get myself more acquainted with it, rather than focusing on a couple of areas.