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Research Article
Epidemiology
Clustering and superspreading potential of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in Hong Kong
Dillon Adam, Peng Wu, Jessica Wong, Eric Lau, Tim Tsang, Simon Cauchemez, Gabriel Leung, Benjamin Cowling
DOI:
10.21203/rs.3.rs-29548/v1
Superspreading events have characterised previous epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infections. Using contact tracing data, we identified and characterized SARS-CoV-2 clusters in Hong Kong. Given a superspreading threshold of 6-8 secondary cases, we identified 5-7 probable superspreading events and evidence of substantial overdispersion in transmissibility, and estimated that 20% of cases were responsible for 80% of local transmission. Among terminal cluster cases, 27% (45/167) ended in quarantine. Social exposures produced a greater number of secondary cases compared to family or work exposures (p<0.001) while delays between symptom onset and isolation did not reliably predict the number of individual secondary cases or resulting cluster sizes. Public health authorities should focus on rapid tracing and quarantine of contacts, along with physical distancing to prevent superspreading events in high-risk social environments.
full article
https://www.researchsquare.com/arti...1pqRdilUyWLlN9EEenthv_cHsGDVtAz7Xlae4v-ulzIlI
Epidemiology
Clustering and superspreading potential of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in Hong Kong
Dillon Adam, Peng Wu, Jessica Wong, Eric Lau, Tim Tsang, Simon Cauchemez, Gabriel Leung, Benjamin Cowling
DOI:
10.21203/rs.3.rs-29548/v1
Superspreading events have characterised previous epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infections. Using contact tracing data, we identified and characterized SARS-CoV-2 clusters in Hong Kong. Given a superspreading threshold of 6-8 secondary cases, we identified 5-7 probable superspreading events and evidence of substantial overdispersion in transmissibility, and estimated that 20% of cases were responsible for 80% of local transmission. Among terminal cluster cases, 27% (45/167) ended in quarantine. Social exposures produced a greater number of secondary cases compared to family or work exposures (p<0.001) while delays between symptom onset and isolation did not reliably predict the number of individual secondary cases or resulting cluster sizes. Public health authorities should focus on rapid tracing and quarantine of contacts, along with physical distancing to prevent superspreading events in high-risk social environments.
full article
https://www.researchsquare.com/arti...1pqRdilUyWLlN9EEenthv_cHsGDVtAz7Xlae4v-ulzIlI