Mary Wilson
Well-known member
Published:January 27, 2021
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00183-5
Ester C Sabino, Lewis F Buss, Maria P S Carvalho, Carlos A Prete Jr, Myuki A E Crispim, Nelson A Fraiji, Rafael H M Pereira, Kris V Parag, Pedro da Silva Peixoto, Moritz U G Kraemer, Marcio K Oikawa, Tassila Salomon, Zulma M Cucunuba, M?rcia C Castro, Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos, V?tor H Nascimento, Henrique S Pereira, Neil M Ferguson, Oliver G Pybus, Adam Kucharski, Michael P Busch, Christopher Dye, Nuno R Faria
After initially containing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), many European and Asian countries had a resurgence of COVID-19 consistent with a large proportion of the population remaining susceptible to the virus after the first epidemic wave.
[SUP]1[/SUP] By contrast, in Manaus, Brazil, a study of blood donors indicated that 76% (95% CI 67–98) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by October, 2020.
[SUP]2[/SUP] High attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 were also estimated in population-based samples from other locations in the Amazon Basin—eg, Iquitos, Peru 70% (67–73).
[SUP]3[/SUP] The estimated SARS-CoV-2 attack rate in Manaus would be above the theoretical herd immunity threshold (67%), given a basic case reproduction number (R[SUB]0[/SUB]) of 3.
[SUP]4[/SUP]In this context, the abrupt increase in the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions in Manaus during January, 2021 (3431 in Jan 1–19, 2021, vs 552 in Dec 1–19, 2020) is unexpected and of concern (figure).[SUP]5[/SUP][SUP], [/SUP][SUP]6[/SUP][SUP], [/SUP][SUP]7[/SUP][SUP], [/SUP][SUP]8[/SUP][SUP], [/SUP][SUP]9[/SUP][SUP], [/SUP][SUP]10[/SUP]
After a large epidemic that peaked in late April, 2020, COVID-19 hospitalisations in Manaus remained stable and fairly low for 7 months from May to November, despite the relaxation of COVID-19 control measures during that period (figure). ...
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00183-5
Ester C Sabino, Lewis F Buss, Maria P S Carvalho, Carlos A Prete Jr, Myuki A E Crispim, Nelson A Fraiji, Rafael H M Pereira, Kris V Parag, Pedro da Silva Peixoto, Moritz U G Kraemer, Marcio K Oikawa, Tassila Salomon, Zulma M Cucunuba, M?rcia C Castro, Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos, V?tor H Nascimento, Henrique S Pereira, Neil M Ferguson, Oliver G Pybus, Adam Kucharski, Michael P Busch, Christopher Dye, Nuno R Faria
After initially containing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), many European and Asian countries had a resurgence of COVID-19 consistent with a large proportion of the population remaining susceptible to the virus after the first epidemic wave.
[SUP]1[/SUP] By contrast, in Manaus, Brazil, a study of blood donors indicated that 76% (95% CI 67–98) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by October, 2020.
[SUP]2[/SUP] High attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 were also estimated in population-based samples from other locations in the Amazon Basin—eg, Iquitos, Peru 70% (67–73).
[SUP]3[/SUP] The estimated SARS-CoV-2 attack rate in Manaus would be above the theoretical herd immunity threshold (67%), given a basic case reproduction number (R[SUB]0[/SUB]) of 3.
[SUP]4[/SUP]In this context, the abrupt increase in the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions in Manaus during January, 2021 (3431 in Jan 1–19, 2021, vs 552 in Dec 1–19, 2020) is unexpected and of concern (figure).[SUP]5[/SUP][SUP], [/SUP][SUP]6[/SUP][SUP], [/SUP][SUP]7[/SUP][SUP], [/SUP][SUP]8[/SUP][SUP], [/SUP][SUP]9[/SUP][SUP], [/SUP][SUP]10[/SUP]
After a large epidemic that peaked in late April, 2020, COVID-19 hospitalisations in Manaus remained stable and fairly low for 7 months from May to November, despite the relaxation of COVID-19 control measures during that period (figure). ...
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext