tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Risk Anal
. 2024 Mar 15.
doi: 10.1111/risa.14291. Online ahead of print. Use of a risk assessment tool to determine the origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Xin Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Fatema Kalyar[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Abrar Ahmad Chughtai[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Chandini Raina MacIntyre[SUP] 1 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
The origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is contentious. Most studies have focused on a zoonotic origin, but definitive evidence such as an intermediary animal host is lacking. We used an established risk analysis tool for differentiating natural and unnatural epidemics, the modified Grunow-Finke assessment tool (mGFT) to study the origin of SARS-COV-2. The mGFT scores 11 criteria to provide a likelihood of natural or unnatural origin. Using published literature and publicly available sources of information, we applied the mGFT to the origin of SARS-CoV-2. The mGFT scored 41/60 points (68%), with high inter-rater reliability (100%), indicating a greater likelihood of an unnatural than natural origin of SARS-CoV-2. This risk assessment cannot prove the origin of SARS-CoV-2 but shows that the possibility of a laboratory origin cannot be easily dismissed.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; origin; pandemic; risk analysis.
. 2024 Mar 15.
doi: 10.1111/risa.14291. Online ahead of print. Use of a risk assessment tool to determine the origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Xin Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Fatema Kalyar[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Abrar Ahmad Chughtai[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Chandini Raina MacIntyre[SUP] 1 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 38488186
- DOI: 10.1111/risa.14291
The origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is contentious. Most studies have focused on a zoonotic origin, but definitive evidence such as an intermediary animal host is lacking. We used an established risk analysis tool for differentiating natural and unnatural epidemics, the modified Grunow-Finke assessment tool (mGFT) to study the origin of SARS-COV-2. The mGFT scores 11 criteria to provide a likelihood of natural or unnatural origin. Using published literature and publicly available sources of information, we applied the mGFT to the origin of SARS-CoV-2. The mGFT scored 41/60 points (68%), with high inter-rater reliability (100%), indicating a greater likelihood of an unnatural than natural origin of SARS-CoV-2. This risk assessment cannot prove the origin of SARS-CoV-2 but shows that the possibility of a laboratory origin cannot be easily dismissed.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; origin; pandemic; risk analysis.