Gert van der Hoek
In Memoriam - Editor, Senior Moderator
Swine flu death estimate reduced
Fears have been voiced about a second wave of flu cases
Estimates of the number of people in Scotland who may be hospitalised or die after catching swine flu have been reduced, ministers have said.
Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said the assumptions of the impact of a worst-case scenario had been revised.
The prediction that 30% of the total population could be affected at a peak of H1N1 cases remains unchanged.
However, it is now estimated that up to 0.1% of people who become ill may die, down from the previous figure of 0.35%.
The new estimate, which followed a revision of UK planning assumptions, would equate to about 2,000 people in Scotland.
It is also estimated that 1% of those who catch swine flu will require hospitalisation, down from a previous figure of 2%.
The Scottish Government also published figures which estimated that 2,500 people had contracted the H1N1 virus in the last week.
There was a slight fall in the number of community samples testing positive for swine flu, but a slight rise in the rate of GP consultations for flu-like illnesses.
A total of 125 people have been hospitalised since the start of the outbreak and seven deaths have been linked to swine flu.
Ms Sturgeon said: "The updated planning assumptions published today are lower than previously predicted, and are in line with our experience of the virus so far.
"These assumptions do not yet take account of the impact of the vaccination programme, and are not predictions - they are assumptions that allow us, and health boards, to plan for the worst, while continuing to hope for the best."
Second wave
She said the number of GP practices providing surveillance information would increase in the coming weeks to give "an even clearer picture of how the virus is behaving in Scotland".
Scottish Labour health spokesman Dr Richard Simpson warned that the Scottish Government was failing to prepare properly for a potential second wave of flu cases.
He said: "It is absolutely vital that we use the time available now to prepare for a potential second wave of flu cases.
"In a worst case scenario, GPs could be dealing with over 5,000 extra cases per week."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8235562.stm
Fears have been voiced about a second wave of flu cases
Estimates of the number of people in Scotland who may be hospitalised or die after catching swine flu have been reduced, ministers have said.
Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said the assumptions of the impact of a worst-case scenario had been revised.
The prediction that 30% of the total population could be affected at a peak of H1N1 cases remains unchanged.
However, it is now estimated that up to 0.1% of people who become ill may die, down from the previous figure of 0.35%.
The new estimate, which followed a revision of UK planning assumptions, would equate to about 2,000 people in Scotland.
It is also estimated that 1% of those who catch swine flu will require hospitalisation, down from a previous figure of 2%.
The Scottish Government also published figures which estimated that 2,500 people had contracted the H1N1 virus in the last week.
There was a slight fall in the number of community samples testing positive for swine flu, but a slight rise in the rate of GP consultations for flu-like illnesses.
A total of 125 people have been hospitalised since the start of the outbreak and seven deaths have been linked to swine flu.
Ms Sturgeon said: "The updated planning assumptions published today are lower than previously predicted, and are in line with our experience of the virus so far.
"These assumptions do not yet take account of the impact of the vaccination programme, and are not predictions - they are assumptions that allow us, and health boards, to plan for the worst, while continuing to hope for the best."
Second wave
She said the number of GP practices providing surveillance information would increase in the coming weeks to give "an even clearer picture of how the virus is behaving in Scotland".
Scottish Labour health spokesman Dr Richard Simpson warned that the Scottish Government was failing to prepare properly for a potential second wave of flu cases.
He said: "It is absolutely vital that we use the time available now to prepare for a potential second wave of flu cases.
"In a worst case scenario, GPs could be dealing with over 5,000 extra cases per week."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8235562.stm