http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/h...swine-flu-to-peak-in-november-91466-24873714/
Second wave of swine flu to peak in November
Oct 7 2009 Madeleine Brindley, WalesOnline
THE second wave of swine flu is expected to peak in Wales in November, public health officials have predicted.
The number of cases of the virus is doubling every week in Wales as the second wave gathers pace. But it is not yet clear how many people will be affected by the H1N1 virus or how long the peak period will last.
The predictions come as research suggests that people who are regularly vaccinated against seasonal flu may have some protection against swine flu. The research reveals that last year?s seasonal flu vaccine provides some protection against swine flu, particularly the most severe forms of the disease.
But experts today said that this does not mean that the annual flu jab should replace the need for swine flu vaccination, particularly for at-risk groups.
The latest figures suggest there are more than 1,340 cases of swine flu in Wales, based on the number of people contacting their GP with symptoms.
The rates of illness range from 19.1 per 100,000 population in Monmouthshire to 78.1 in Cardiff.
This compares with a peak of more than 4,800 cases ? a rate of 161 cases per 100,000 population ? at the height of the first wave of infection in July.
Dr Brendan Mason, a consultant epidemiologist at the National Public Health Service for Wales, said: ?We?re moving towards a doubling of cases every week which will push the peak into November here in Wales. In the past, cases have stayed at peak levels for a week or so and then started dropping ? the curve is usually fairly short and sharp and occurs over an eight or nine-week period.
?I would expect levels of illness to be higher than what we observed in the summer months ? just how high is the million dollar question.
?We are not expecting anything on the scale of what we saw in the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 because the whole population is not as susceptible ? there are some people who seem to have immunity as a result of past exposure. But also because it does not appear to be as severe as the strains we saw back in the 1950s and 1960s.?
Swine flu has been linked to one death in Wales ? a 55-year-old mother from Caerphilly ? and only a relatively small number of people have been admitted to hospital.
A swine flu jab is expected to be available later this month and will be offered to at-risk groups and frontline health and social care workers first.
Research by Mexican scientists, published by BMJ.com today, suggests that people who have had a seasonal flu vaccine may have some protection against swine flu.
The study, by Laboratories de Biol?gicos y Reactivos de M?xico, investigated the link between the 2008-09 seasonal flu vaccine and cases of swine flu at a hospital in Mexico City.
But, despite the link, experts said the results do not mean that there is no need for a specific vaccine against swine flu.
And Dr Mason added: ?If there are any benefits they will be very small.
?The important bottom line is that this in no way removes the need for the pandemic flu vaccine when it becomes available later this month.
?Any protection from previous immunisations will be very modest indeed.?
Second wave of swine flu to peak in November
Oct 7 2009 Madeleine Brindley, WalesOnline
THE second wave of swine flu is expected to peak in Wales in November, public health officials have predicted.
The number of cases of the virus is doubling every week in Wales as the second wave gathers pace. But it is not yet clear how many people will be affected by the H1N1 virus or how long the peak period will last.
The predictions come as research suggests that people who are regularly vaccinated against seasonal flu may have some protection against swine flu. The research reveals that last year?s seasonal flu vaccine provides some protection against swine flu, particularly the most severe forms of the disease.
But experts today said that this does not mean that the annual flu jab should replace the need for swine flu vaccination, particularly for at-risk groups.
The latest figures suggest there are more than 1,340 cases of swine flu in Wales, based on the number of people contacting their GP with symptoms.
The rates of illness range from 19.1 per 100,000 population in Monmouthshire to 78.1 in Cardiff.
This compares with a peak of more than 4,800 cases ? a rate of 161 cases per 100,000 population ? at the height of the first wave of infection in July.
Dr Brendan Mason, a consultant epidemiologist at the National Public Health Service for Wales, said: ?We?re moving towards a doubling of cases every week which will push the peak into November here in Wales. In the past, cases have stayed at peak levels for a week or so and then started dropping ? the curve is usually fairly short and sharp and occurs over an eight or nine-week period.
?I would expect levels of illness to be higher than what we observed in the summer months ? just how high is the million dollar question.
?We are not expecting anything on the scale of what we saw in the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 because the whole population is not as susceptible ? there are some people who seem to have immunity as a result of past exposure. But also because it does not appear to be as severe as the strains we saw back in the 1950s and 1960s.?
Swine flu has been linked to one death in Wales ? a 55-year-old mother from Caerphilly ? and only a relatively small number of people have been admitted to hospital.
A swine flu jab is expected to be available later this month and will be offered to at-risk groups and frontline health and social care workers first.
Research by Mexican scientists, published by BMJ.com today, suggests that people who have had a seasonal flu vaccine may have some protection against swine flu.
The study, by Laboratories de Biol?gicos y Reactivos de M?xico, investigated the link between the 2008-09 seasonal flu vaccine and cases of swine flu at a hospital in Mexico City.
But, despite the link, experts said the results do not mean that there is no need for a specific vaccine against swine flu.
And Dr Mason added: ?If there are any benefits they will be very small.
?The important bottom line is that this in no way removes the need for the pandemic flu vaccine when it becomes available later this month.
?Any protection from previous immunisations will be very modest indeed.?