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Sri Lanka Dengue 2015

Epidemiology Unit update to October 30th.
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...id=448&lang=en

906 cases in the past 15 days.

January: 6,345 (-)
February: 3,731 (-)
March: 1,962 (-)
April: 1,293 (-)
May: 1,625 (-)
June: 1,477 (-)
July: 2,063 (-)
August: 1,591 (-)
September: 1,089 (+4)
October: 1,366 (+902)

Total: 22,542

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.4% in 2012 to 0.25% in 2013 to a preliminary 0.21% in 2014 and a reported 0.2% this year. This would allow an estimate of between 45 and 146 fatal cases so far in 2015, with the official figure on the lower side of this estimate. "Over 50" fatalities have been reported in the media http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=local/ove...ases-50-deaths to October 9th.

Comparison to previous years;

October 31st 2014 - 34,924 cases; 55 fatalities reported in the media to August 3rd
October 30th 2013 - 26,050 cases; 60+ fatal cases were reported
November 2nd 2012 - 36,375 cases; 110+ fatal cases were reported
November 5th 2011 - 21,540 cases; 151 fatal
 
Epidemiology Unit update to November 6th.
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...id=448&lang=en

597 cases in the past 7 days.

January: 6,345 (-)
February: 3,731 (-)
March: 1,962 (-)
April: 1,293 (-)
May: 1,625 (-)
June: 1,477 (-)
July: 2,063 (-)
August: 1,591 (-)
September: 1,091 (+2)
October: 1,961 (+595)

Total: 23,139

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.4% in 2012 to 0.25% in 2013 to a preliminary 0.21% in 2014 and a reported 0.2% this year. This would allow an estimate of between 46 and 150 fatal cases so far in 2015, with the official figure on the lower side of this estimate. "Over 50" fatalities have been reported in the media http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=local/ove...ases-50-deaths to October 9th.

Comparison to previous years;

November 14th 2014 - 37,414 cases; 55 fatalities reported in the media to August 3rd
November 13th 2013 - 27,221 cases; 60+ fatal cases were reported
November 2nd 2012 - 36,375 cases; 110+ fatal cases were reported
November 5th 2011 - 21,540 cases; 151 fatal
 
Epidemiology Unit update to November 13th.
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...id=448&lang=en

491 cases in the past 7 days.

January: 6,345 (-)
February: 3,731 (-)
March: 1,962 (-)
April: 1,293 (-)
May: 1,625 (-)
June: 1,477 (-)
July: 2,063 (-)
August: 1,591 (-)
September: 1,091 (-)
October: 2,035 (+74)
November: 417 (+417)

Total: 23,630

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.4% in 2012 to 0.25% in 2013 to a preliminary 0.21% in 2014 and a reported 0.2% this year. This would allow an estimate of between 47 and 153 fatal cases so far in 2015, with the official figure on the lower side of this estimate. "Over 50" fatalities have been reported in the media http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=local/ove...ases-50-deaths to October 9th.

Comparison to previous years;

November 14th 2014 - 37,414 cases; 55 fatalities reported in the media to August 3rd
November 13th 2013 - 27,221 cases; 60+ fatal cases were reported
November 14th 2012 - 37,500 cases; 110+ fatal cases were reported
November 18th 2011 - 22,244 cases; 156 fatal
 
Epidemiology Unit update to November 20th.
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...id=448&lang=en

711 cases in the past 7 days.

January: 6,345 (-)
February: 3,731 (-)
March: 1,962 (-)
April: 1,293 (-)
May: 1,625 (-)
June: 1,477 (-)
July: 2,125 (+62)
August: 1,604 (+13)
September: 1,099 (+8)
October: 2,054 (+19)
November: 1,026 (+609)

Total: 24,341

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.4% in 2012 to 0.25% in 2013 to a preliminary 0.21% in 2014 and a reported 0.2% this year. This would allow an estimate of between 48 and 158 fatal cases so far in 2015, with the official figure on the lower side of this estimate. "Over 50" fatalities have been reported in the media http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=local/ove...ases-50-deaths to October 9th.

Comparison to previous years;

November 14th 2014 - 37,414 cases; 55 fatalities reported in the media to August 3rd
November 13th 2013 - 27,221 cases; 60+ fatal cases were reported
November 14th 2012 - 37,500 cases; 110+ fatal cases were reported
November 18th 2011 - 22,244 cases; 156 fatal
 
Shocking statistics for 2015 as Dengue death toll rises
Nov 29, 2015 Rishan Hannan

Shocking statistics for 2015 as Dengue death toll rises
The Health Ministry stated that forty four individuals have died owing to Dengue during the course of the year.

Director of the Epidemiology Unit of the Health Ministry Dr. Paba Palihawadana said that four Dengue patients died last week. She added that due to the incessant rains a rise in the spread of Dengue in many parts of the country have been reported.

She also stated that 24,976 individuals have been diagnosed with Dengue this year. 8248 Dengue patients were reported in Colombo, the district that recorded the highest number of cases.

Chief Medical Officer of the Colombo Municipal Council Ruwan Wijayamuni said that an increase in the number of Dengue cases were reported in the Colombo District as well.
...
http://newsfirst.lk/english/2015/11/...l-rises/119691

Comment: Sri Lanka has a history of constantly revising downward any Dengue fatalities ( https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-a-thru-h/dengue/139472-sri-lanka-dengue-2013-89-fatalities?p=608197#post608197) Over 50 deaths were reported from 21,381 cases (cfr>0.23%) to October 9th. The last official figure was 34 deaths from 19,500 cases (0.17% cfr) on August 30th. This current report gives a cfr of 0.18%. It does seem like Sri Lanka has improved Dengue treatment and is bringing down the fatality rate year-on-year, but previous shenanigans lead me to not blindly accept the Ministry's official figures. - Ro
 
December 10th.
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...id=448&lang=en

2,321 cases in the past 20 days.

January: 6,345 (-)
February: 3,731 (-)
March: 1,962 (-)
April: 1,293 (-)
May: 1,625 (-)
June: 1,477 (-)
July: 2,125 (-)
August: 1,604 (-)
September: 1,099 (-)
October: 2,066 (+12)
November: 2,736 (+1,710)
December: 599 (+599)

Total: 26,662

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.4% in 2012 to 0.25% in 2013 to a preliminary 0.21% in 2014 and a reported 0.2% this year. This would allow an estimate of between 53 and 173 fatal cases so far in 2015, with the official figure on the lower side of this estimate. "Over 50" fatalities have been reported in the media http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=local/ove...ases-50-deaths to October 9th.

Comparison to previous years;

December 12th 2014 - 43,059 cases; 55 fatalities reported in the media to August 3rd
December 13th 2013 - 29,654 cases; 64+ fatal cases were reported
December 10th 2012 - 40,144 cases; 110+ fatal cases were reported
December 9th 2011 - 24,514 cases; 169 fatal
 
Curb the dengue sting now before it gets out of control: Health officials

By Joshua Surendraraj


Dengue is on the rise with seven deaths being reported in the past two months and the past two weeks alone seeing 599 cases, bringing the total to 44 deaths and 26,243 cases for this year, a health official said.


A school in Kalutara that is being used as an O/Level exmination centre being fumigated. Pic by Sarath Sitiwardhene

However, the highest number of deaths and cases were observed during the first quarter of the year, while there was a drop in the second quarter, the official said, warning that once again an increasing trend was observed. More than 4500 cases were reported particularly in the past two months.
....
http://www.sundaytimes.lk/151213/ne...s-out-of-control-health-officials-175091.html

Comment: For the record, I do not believe the official figure of 44 deaths. There are two links in this thread which tell of over 50 deaths prior to October. - Ro
 
December 18th.
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...id=448&lang=en

1,034 cases in the past 8 days.

January: 6,345 (-)
February: 3,731 (-)
March: 1,962 (-)
April: 1,293 (-)
May: 1,625 (-)
June: 1,477 (-)
July: 2,125 (-)
August: 1,604 (-)
September: 1,099 (-)
October: 2,066 (-)
November: 2,749 (+13)
December: 1,620 (+1,021)

Total: 27,696

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.4% in 2012 to 0.27% in 2013 to a preliminary 0.21% in 2014 and a reported 0.2% this year. This would allow an estimate of between 55 and 180 fatal cases so far in 2015, with the official figure on the lower side of this estimate. "Over 50" fatalities have been reported in the media http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=local/ove...ases-50-deaths to October 9th.

Comparison to previous years;

December 22nd 2014 - 44,728 cases; 90 fatalities reported in the media to December 16th
December 24th 2013 - 30,653 cases; Overall cfr 0.27%
December 21st 2012 - 42,257 cases; Overall cfr 0.4%
December 30th 2011 - 27,162 cases; Overall cfr 0.64%
 
Over 54 dengue deaths and 27,000 cases this year
December 21, 2015 10:07 pm
Bookmark and Share

A total of 27,696 dengue cases had been reported from all parts of the country up to this month with over 54 dengue deaths, the Health Ministry says.
...
http://www.adaderana.lk/news.php?nid=33512

Comment: One wonders how much "over 54" the real number is. "Over 50" fatalities were reported from 21,381 cases to October 9th (>.23%cfr). That article has since been redated to November 6th, but as can be seen in post #39 of this thread, was first quoted here on Oct 10. I've noted manipulation of the official Sri Lankan Dengue fatality figures for years. At a cfr of 0.23%, the fatality figure is estimated to be at least 63. It may well be higher. - Ro
 
December 22nd.
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...id=448&lang=en

475 cases in the previous 4 days.

January: 6,345 (-)
February: 3,731 (-)
March: 1,962 (-)
April: 1,293 (-)
May: 1,625 (-)
June: 1,477 (-)
July: 2,125 (-)
August: 1,604 (-)
September: 1,099 (-)
October: 2,066 (-)
November: 2,750 (+1)
December: 2,094 (+474)

Total: 28,171

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.4% in 2012 to 0.27% in 2013 to a preliminary 0.21% in 2014 and a reported 0.2% this year. This would allow an estimate of between 56 and 183 fatal cases so far in 2015, with the official figure on the lower side of this estimate. "Over 54" fatalities have been reported in the media http://www.adaderana.lk/news.php?nid=33512 to December 21st.

Comparison to previous years;

December 22nd 2014 - 44,728 cases; 90 fatalities reported in the media to December 16th
December 24th 2013 - 30,653 cases; Overall cfr 0.27%
December 21st 2012 - 42,257 cases; Overall cfr 0.4%
December 30th 2011 - 27,162 cases; Overall cfr 0.64%
 
Updated to Jan 8th.
http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...id=448&lang=en

January: 6,345 (-)
February: 3,731 (-)
March: 1,962 (-)
April: 1,293 (-)
May: 1,625 (-)
June: 1,477 (-)
July: 2,125 (-)
August: 1,604 (-)
September: 1,099 (-)
October: 2,066 (-)
November: 2,762 (+12)
December: 2,094 (+1,507)

Total: 29,690 (+1,519)

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.41% in 2012 to 0.28% in 2013 to a preliminary 0.21% in 2014 and a reported 0.2% this year. This would allow an estimate of between 59 and 190 fatal cases so far in 2015, with the official figure on the lower side of this estimate. "Over 54" fatalities have been reported in the media http://www.adaderana.lk/news.php?nid=33512 to December 21st.

Comparison to previous years;

Total for 2014 - 47,246 cases; 97 fatalities; Overall cfr 0.21%
2013 was 32,063 cases; 89 fatalities; Overall cfr 0.28%
2012 was 44,461 cases; 181 fatalities; Overall cfr 0.41%
2011 was 28,473 cases; 173 fatalities; Overall cfr 0.61%
2010 was 34,188 cases; 222 fatalities; Overall cfr 0.65%
 
* Sri Lanka declares National Mosquito Control Week from March 29
Fri, Mar 25, 2016, 11:04 pm SL Time, ColomboPage News Desk, Sri Lanka.
...
However the efforts of the Health Ministry, the members of the tri-forces, the Police, local governments and the public paid off when the number dropped to 29,777 last year [2015]. The number of deaths was also reduced to 56.
...
http://www.colombopage.com/archive_16A/Mar25_1458927274CH.php
 
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