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Stat Biosci. 2020 Apr 2:1-17. doi: 10.1007/s12561-020-09277-0. [Epub ahead of print]
On a Statistical Transmission Model in Analysis of the Early Phase of COVID-19 Outbreak.
Zhu Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Chen YQ[SUP]1[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
Since December 2019, a disease caused by a novel strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) had infected many people and the cumulative confirmed cases have reached almost 180,000 as of 17, March 2020. The COVID-19 outbreak was believed to have emerged from a seafood market in Wuhan, a metropolis city of more than 11 million population in Hubei province, China. We introduced a statistical disease transmission model using case symptom onset data to estimate the transmissibility of the early-phase outbreak in China, and provided sensitivity analyses with various assumptions of disease natural history of the COVID-19. We fitted the transmission model to several publicly available sources of the outbreak data until 11, February 2020, and estimated lock down intervention efficacy of Wuhan city. The estimated [FONT=MathJax_Math]R[/FONT][FONT=MathJax_Main]0[/FONT] was between 2.7 and 4.2 from plausible distribution assumptions of the incubation period and relative infectivity over the infectious period. 95% confidence interval of [FONT=MathJax_Math]R[/FONT][FONT=MathJax_Main]0[/FONT] were also reported. Potential issues such as data quality concerns and comparison of different modelling approaches were discussed.
? International Chinese Statistical Association 2020.
KEYWORDS:
Basic reproduction number; COVID-19; Emerging outbreak; Transmission model
PMID:32292527PMCID:PMC7113380DOI:10.1007/s12561-020-09277-0
Free PMC Article
On a Statistical Transmission Model in Analysis of the Early Phase of COVID-19 Outbreak.
Zhu Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Chen YQ[SUP]1[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
Since December 2019, a disease caused by a novel strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) had infected many people and the cumulative confirmed cases have reached almost 180,000 as of 17, March 2020. The COVID-19 outbreak was believed to have emerged from a seafood market in Wuhan, a metropolis city of more than 11 million population in Hubei province, China. We introduced a statistical disease transmission model using case symptom onset data to estimate the transmissibility of the early-phase outbreak in China, and provided sensitivity analyses with various assumptions of disease natural history of the COVID-19. We fitted the transmission model to several publicly available sources of the outbreak data until 11, February 2020, and estimated lock down intervention efficacy of Wuhan city. The estimated [FONT=MathJax_Math]R[/FONT][FONT=MathJax_Main]0[/FONT] was between 2.7 and 4.2 from plausible distribution assumptions of the incubation period and relative infectivity over the infectious period. 95% confidence interval of [FONT=MathJax_Math]R[/FONT][FONT=MathJax_Main]0[/FONT] were also reported. Potential issues such as data quality concerns and comparison of different modelling approaches were discussed.
? International Chinese Statistical Association 2020.
KEYWORDS:
Basic reproduction number; COVID-19; Emerging outbreak; Transmission model
PMID:32292527PMCID:PMC7113380DOI:10.1007/s12561-020-09277-0
Free PMC Article