Re: Swine flu cases in Scotland double in a week
There is evidence that Inluenza A H1N1v continues to circulate in Scotland, with the overall levels
of illness which may be due to this virus higher this week, compared to last week.
This rise is
larger than increases reported in previous weeks. The rate is now higher than the level it was at
the beginning of August. Compared to last week, consultation rates have continued to increase in
the 0-4, 5-14 and 15-64 year age groups, but decreased in the 65 years and over age group. The
estimate of H1N1v positivity in samples from sentinel practices submitted this week (15.7%) is
consistent with the increase in swab positivity observed last week (19.2%) compared to the stable
positivity rate in July and August of 9%. This increase is partly, but not wholly, due to a change in
the age distribution of those swabbed. A small number of H1N1v conirmed cases continue to be
hospitalised. There is no evidence of any signiicant increase in either the number or in the severity
of their condition. There have been a small number of schools which have experienced higher
than expected levels of absenteeism. The levels of absenteeism in these schools are returning to
normal. The H1N1v situation is being closely monitored.
An age adjusted method of estimating the number of H1N1v cases is now used to estimate
the number of H1N1v cases. Data from sentinel GP practices suggest a daily estimate of
433 cases of H1N1v cases (2163 over the working week) consulted their GP. Since not all
people will consult their GP,
we estimate that the total number of people in Scotland who
have contracted H1N1v over the past week is 6181 (95% CI 3393, 11081). Compared to
igures reported over the last two weeks these represent an increase associated with two
things – increases in consultation rates and increases in swab positivity rates among the
5-14 and 15-64 years age groups.
