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Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

It is not hand waving -- these are well known forms of analysis in bioinformatics.

You do not need parental sequences to calculate the rate of mutation -- you just need to organize the sub-tree from published sequences via fastest minimum evolution, from which can you calculate statistics, conduct molecular clock analysis, etc.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12586722

http://tree.bio.ed.ac.uk/groups/influenza/
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

higher mutation rates could be due to host-switching or reassortment.

why should lab-strains mutate faster ? Are there such examples ?
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

Not all papers are correct. My recent favorite is the one that extrapolates a world case fatality rate from only 1000 cases in Mexico when there have been thousands (largely undiagnosed) cases. With a 1/3 of the cases not exhibiting a fever, we may never know.

Garbage in. Garbage out.

It is too early to determine where EXACTLY this strain came from.

I do not care who claims they know.

People want to make a name for themselves. Publish books, get tenure, get funding...all kinds of things.

Do not believe everything that you read.

Get AT LEAST 2 sources for your health news. Compare.
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

Adrian Gibbs - Bloomberg Interview (May 13, 2009)

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Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

Bravo' Sally, and thank you.
Good free speach about everything matter.

As we can hear from the tube video, if I'm not err, the professor have reasons to doubt the natural insurgence of 2 main events of this one novel flu pandemic virus from other seen natural flu viruses:
from the video (~):

- why it can be seen in a simulation about the charact. of this new virus, that it has ALL 8 genes grouped in a cluster, when others compared have only a part of it?

- many of its various charact. were traced to be out there in the wild about 7-8 years, why is that this triple strain virus formed itself just at this precise moment, and came out to became pandemic?


P.S.
And maybe to evaluate more the sentence:
"“One of the simplest explanations is that it’s a laboratory escape,” Gibbs said."

The most simplest explanation many times proved to be the right one for other matters ...
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

this is hard to understand acustically for me.
He said the mutation rate had speeded up years
ago in all 8 segments, about 3 fold.

I can't verify that. I don't know how he comes to this conclusion.

I can't find his webpage.

Famous Australian professor, but no webpage ?
How credible is that...

wasn't he the one with the boguous 1918 recombination claim ?
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

gsgs said:
Famous Australian professor, but no webpage ?
How credible is that...
Click to expand...

When you have 75 years obviously you don't have the actual habbit to put your findings on the public web.

He had make an live TV statement, which video we could reach by the link from Sally's post.

When the web storms passes (or persists), the emeritus will have already publish it on a scientific journal, which would probably publish it in its web journal variant.

If a man want to live peacefully, there is no need to force him to provide a web site.
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

Thanks Sally for the video!

That is the best commercial for Recombinomics I have ever seen/heard.

Henry should hire this guy. Just to be clear - FT has no financial interest in Recombinomics.

Gibbs can not explain the "rapid" changes in some of the sequences over the last 6 years so he has decided that lab intervention is one possibility. lol

How about a new idea of how genetic changes occur? How about these changes can occur in smaller bits than in reassortment?

And instead of marine animals that might be the other reason 2 sequences were "sped up", how about...........drum roll please......

......migratory birds?

I think I will not even want to know his explanation for the truly rapid and now 95 - 100% oseltamivir resistance world wide in the seasonal H1N1 that has developed in the last 18 months.

Maybe he will suggest Niman's favorite mystery reason -


Martians.
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

yes, and less reason to believe him, when he makes claims like this
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

Sally said:
Adrian Gibbs - Bloomberg Interview (May 13, 2009)

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</EMBED>
Click to expand...
As I said earlier, he has no sequences and there is ZERO evidence that the H1N1 swine came from a lab.
These virus ahve likely been replicating in swine in Mexico, and the lack of closely related sequences in the database is due to a lack of Mexican swine sequences in the database.
Since the comments are based on NO data, it will not become the internet rumor I expected.
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

#48/49


Ok folks, I hope you must not going to change the line later, maybe ... :)

I don't prefer any option, but if I must pick (personal opinion only, without proves) what have the bigger probability between that this new virus is a result of migratory birds mingling, or a result of an tampering/applying of many faked/experimental animal vaccines and antivirals by its cruising on the worldwide animal breeding fields, I would opt for the second ...
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

How long does it take to sequence pigs? It was reported in NYT on April 30 that an international team was going to investigate.

I think we are being slightly rude; it would be good to at least read his paper.
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

Source: http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/ElFi...cId=189567&docTipo=1&orderby=docid&sortby=ASC

Google translation:
El Financiero Online

WHO ensures that no influenza virus was a laboratory
Flu alert - Thursday May 14th (10:35 hrs.)

Geneva, May 14 .- The AH1N1 virus did not emerge as a laboratory scientist had suggested an Australian, said today as the deputy director of the World Health Organization (WHO), Keiji Fukuda.


"After several days of analysis, we can say that the virus was created in a natural way and not in the lab," he said in a press Fukuda.

Cases of influenza A infections in the world confirmed by WHO in 6497 amounted to 33 countries. (With information from Reuters / MVC)
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

Shiloh said:
El Financiero Online

WHO ensures that no influenza virus was a laboratory
Flu alert - Thursday May 14th (10:35 hrs.)

Geneva, May 14 .- The AH1N1 virus did not emerge as a laboratory scientist had suggested an Australian, said today as the deputy director of the World Health Organization (WHO), Keiji Fukuda.


"After several days of analysis, we can say that the virus was created in a natural way and not in the lab," he said in a press Fukuda.
Click to expand...

But of course,
it was created naturaly from an harboring human mixing carrier.

The vacc. lab one was the previous version circulating into animals prior the additional human mixing ...

Ok (Johnny be good tonight), I should take the gurus most scientificaly proved option (based on actual levels of input knowledge) as a truth.

P.S.
Still, I'm waiting for more published explanations from Gibbs theory ...
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

-- Says the WHO -- the organization now under criminal indictment in Austria. Take what they say with a grain of salt. They do not have your best interests in mind.

Incidentally, I will be publishing my bioinformatics paper online. Henry, if you think I will not call you out on your gatekeeper b.s., you are gravely mistaken. You have not addressed the SNP error rate, obtainable from data mining of the published sequences.
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

mixin said:
How long does it take to sequence pigs? It was reported in NYT on April 30 that an international team was going to investigate.

I think we are being slightly rude; it would be good to at least read his paper.
Click to expand...

I am sorry for bring rude but I have seen never seen such ridiculous assertions in my life as I have the last 3 weeks.

Honestly, twilight zone or x-files.

One group, in the first week of the known outbreak, actually named the exact spot where this strain of H1N1 was "born". With no epidemiological studies. No lab work.

I think we have a lot to worry about. Like - what are we going to do when 2009 H1N1 becomes endemic in areas where H5N1 has recently been causing human infections?

Our efforts are better spent trying to educate the world's citizens on the danger of infectious disease and the inexpensive ways to treat and avoid it.

Maybe some of the bored experts should work on this.
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

AlexanderSJones said:
-- Says the WHO -- the organization now under criminal indictment in Austria. Take what they say with a grain of salt. They do not have your best interests in mind.

Incidentally, I will be publishing my bioinformatics paper online. Henry, if you think I will not call you out on your gatekeeper b.s., you are gravely mistaken. You have not addressed the SNP error rate, obtainable from data mining of the published sequences.
Click to expand...

This bashing is completely unacceptable here.

This is your last warning.

State your case in a non-personal and non-bashing manner. Period.
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

This is a very valuable website, Florida1, with some very distinguished regular posters, however in my opinion the desire of some individuals to exercise power, with little regard for reasonable freedom of speech, is a serious limitation.
 
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

Welcome Shadowman!

People can voice their opinions in a civil manner.

This is our living room.

We require "good" behavior. Using terms like "b.s." will not be tolerated.

If this upsets some posters then they can go to other sites on the internet.

We are not trying to win a popularity contest here.

We are not-for-profit and we are all volunteers.

We are trying to encourage what is best in the human spirit. The only credentials that count at FT are of the heart.
 
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