the New York City watch thread

[gsgs]

I think it's worth to have an own thread about NYC,
outside the regional area.

That's where it's being demonstrated now, whether wave 1 protects.
What we can expect from vaccination.

Southern USA already has a full wave 2, not so NYC.
Will other Northern USA-states get it but NYC remains spared ?
That would be great news.


NYC: http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/html/flu/flu-data.shtml
NYC-school-attendance: http://trancy.net/nyc-school-attendance/
ISDS-ILI charts: http://isds.cirg.washington.edu/distribute/countstimeseries.php?period=daily
ACHA: http://www.acha.org/ILI_Archive.cfm
http://www.health.state.ny.us/diseases/communicable/influenza/surveillance/2009-2010/


http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/flu/html/schools/data.shtml

 

[gsgs]

Re: the New York City watch thread

http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/images/flu/flu-synd-ed-large.gif

http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/images/flu/flu-synd-ed-boro-large.gif

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=4255&stc=1&d=1254211039

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=4256&stc=1&d=1254212413

 

[gsgs]

Re: the New York City watch thread

Queens numbers are even going down on Oct.1

http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/flu/images/data/flu-synd-ed-boro-large.gif



Queens was hit hardest in May/June

 

[gsgs]

Re: the New York City watch thread

updated school attendance per Oct.16 :

 

[gsgs]

Re: the New York City watch thread

while it continues to go up nationwide, there is still nothing
in New York City !
Queens - hit hardest in wave 1 - is even going down a bit.
Similar for the regions in New Yor State : Long Island and Hudson Valley which were hit hardest
in wave 1 have fewest ILI now in wave 2.

so it seems that the vax should have worked fine ... if it had come in time

 

[gsgs]

Re: the New York City watch thread

ILI-visits going up to ~300 daily now,
from ~200-250 some days ago

Visits for Influenza-like Illness to NYC Emergency Departments
Date Hospitals
Reporting Total ILI visits Total ED visits
10/21/2009 49 304 10,954
10/20/2009 50 292 11,398
10/19/2009 50 274 11,643


school attendance is still good
no significant increase at ISDS

 

[JimO]

Re: the New York City watch thread

The x-axis on all their charts is so broad that all the %ILI charts appear pretty flat. It makes it difficult to see early indications of an increase.

 

[gsgs]

Re: the New York City watch thread

FT so slow since 3min , better now


it's not the x-axis, it's the y-axis.
They must have expected an enormous increase

 

[Hogweed]

Re: the New York City watch thread

This chart gives a better scale

http://isdsdistribute.org/

For the last three days the ILI% quoted above is
Oct 21 2.8%
Oct 20 2.6%
Oct 19 2.4%

so the chart is still rising.

I note that a number of areas with high ILI activity haven't updated in a while on ISDS.

 

[JimO]

Re: the New York City watch thread

FT so slow since 3min , better now


it's not the x-axis, it's the y-axis.
They must have expected an enormous increase

Sorry, got my "x" and "y" backwards. I should stick with vertical and horizontal.

Hogweed - thanks for that chart. It's a lot easier to see the trend at that scale.

Do we know what the baseline level is for this time of year?

 

[gsgs]

Re: the New York City watch thread

it's above the baseline and the trend is upwards,
(looking at the ISDS-chart)
but it's a lot less than other regions

 

[JimO]

Re: the New York City watch thread

it's above the baseline and the trend is upwards,
(looking at the ISDS-chart)
but it's a lot less than other regions

Thanks :tiphat:

 

[gsgs]

Re: the New York City watch thread

New Jersey, week 42, 28.Oct. %ILI:
NW:8.00
NE:3.16 (towards New York City)
CW:8.38
CE:5.99
S :6.96

 

[gsgs]

Re: the New York City watch thread

New York:
http://isds.cirg.washington.edu/distribute/images/daily_counts_fever2.ratio_nyc_6_15.png

Boston:
http://isds.cirg.washington.edu/distribute/images/daily_counts_fever2.ratio_bphc_15_21.png

NYC peaked at 15% in wave 1, now ~2%
Boston peaked at 8% in wave 1, now ~3%

 

[Hogweed]

Re: the New York City watch thread

NYC peaked at 15% in wave 1, now ~2%
Boston peaked at 8% in wave 1, now ~3%

And here's the last five days NYC

http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/flu/html/data/data.shtml

Visits for Influenza-like Illness to NYC Emergency Departments

Date Hospitals
Reporting Total ILI visits Total ED visits ILI%
10/27/2009 49 316 10,754 2.9
10/26/2009 50 353 12,350 2.9
10/25/2009 50 331 9,434 3.5
10/24/2009 50 257 9,522 2.7
10/23/2009 50 244 10,630 2.3

 

[gsgs]

Re: the New York City watch thread

updated charts attached
(but still 1-2 weeks old)

school-attendance remains good
ED visits for ILI is up to 350 per day, from 200 per day

maybe travelors coming from outside
maybe more adults now than in wave 1

 

[gsgs]

Re: the New York City watch thread

school attendance down again
http://trancy.net/nyc-school-attendance/
what is it this time ?

ED-ILI up also

http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/flu/images/data/flu-synd-ed.gif

ISDS shows almost seasonal-flu levels
http://isds.cirg.washington.edu/distribute/countstimeseries.php?period=daily#NYC

but still much less than in May,June

 

[mixin]

Re: the New York City watch thread

I wish we had a schedule of school closings for the year. Many close for things other than just holidays. Other activities, such as testing, might affect attendance.

I believe that big dip from Thurs, Oct 29 to Fri, Oct 30 could have been due to the mayor announcing a state of emergency.

It seems there is often a low attendance on Fridays. Thanks to Trancy for the school info :tiphat:

We should compare this year's ILI visits to last year at this time to see if a slight increase is normal. Since this is almost the middle of Nov., shouldn't we expect to see an increase?

 

[gsgs]

Re: the New York City watch thread

New Jersey:

region                        NW   NE    CW    CE    S    
---------------------------------------------------------------------
%positive                    17    08    23    09    09
longterm care %ILI         0.37  1.52  0.33  0.00  0.32
school absenteism          7.55  5.90  7.53  6.23  8.88
ED % ILI                  13.83 05.23 13.48 12.26 11.54

 

[gsgs]

Re: the New York City watch thread

11/12/2009 50 435 10,908
11/11/2009 50 416 10,922
11/10/2009 50 412 11,681

NYS updated --> continues to increase
school-attendance not yet updated