The rapid rise of cases in Japan

[wotan]

Can anyone comment on how Japan has gone from 0 cases of community acquired two days ago to, it seems, 80 today? Are they using the same definition of confirmed that the US is? Although none of the news stories showing up on FT are in English yet, we are all, fortunately, using Arabic numbers. Their numbers have risen so far so fast I am beginning to become suspicious of what we are looking at.

 

[Extrapolation]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

Can anyone comment on how Japan has gone from 0 cases of community acquired two days ago to, it seems, 80 today? Are they using the same definition of confirmed that the US is? Although none of the news stories showing up on FT are in English yet, we are all, fortunately, using Arabic numbers. Their numbers have risen so far so fast I am beginning to become suspicious of what we are looking at.

yes - they use the same numerical and biological criteria for confirmed

 

[wotan]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

Since I posted this they seem to be up to 90-ish now.

 

[nomadic wench]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

96 actually...going up every few minutes on the French speakers forum.

 

[wotan]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

92 are community acquired. I can read enough from the thread titles (I don't speak French) to figure out that much.

I don't doubt the number of cases, it just feels a bit of a stretch with how quickly they are finding them now.

 

[Diane Morin]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

92 cases domestic + 4 cases discovered during onboard quarantine inspections at Narita International Airport



Headlines
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.18 </TD><TD class=time>01:04</TD><TD class=headline>Nearly 80 domestic new flu infections confirmed </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.18 </TD><TD class=time>00:24</TD><TD class=headline>More than 90 domestic new flu infections confirmed </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>23:43</TD><TD class=headline>80 domestic new flu infections confirmed </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>22:29</TD><TD class=headline>Domestic new flu infections exceed 50 </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>22:24</TD><TD class=headline>Domestic new flu infections exceed 50 </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>21:23</TD><TD class=headline>Japan confirms 34 more new flu cases, total domestic infections at 42

</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>21:12</TD><TD class=headline>Over 1,000 schools in Osaka, Hyogo to be closed due to new flu </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>19:34</TD><TD class=headline>Japan confirms 32 more new flu cases, total domestic infections at 40

</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>18:11</TD><TD class=headline>7 more domestic infections reported, bringing total number to 28 </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>17:54</TD><TD class=headline>7 more domestic infections reported, bringing total number to 28 </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>17:48</TD><TD class=headline>570 schools in Osaka, Hyogo to be closed </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>12:29</TD><TD class=headline>Japan confirms 13 more flu cases, total domestic cases rise to 21

</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>10:30</TD><TD class=headline>9 in Osaka confirmed to have new flu, total domestic cases rise to 17 </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>09:25</TD><TD class=headline>9 in Osaka confirmed to have new flu, total domestic cases rise to 17 </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.17 </TD><TD class=time>00:09</TD><TD class=headline>1st domestic infections of new flu confirmed in Japan </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>22:47</TD><TD class=headline>1st domestic infections of new flu confirmed in Japan

</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>22:13</TD><TD class=headline>8 in Kobe confirmed as being infected with new flu </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>21:12</TD><TD class=headline>Japan firms dismayed by flu detection in person with no travel record </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>20:51</TD><TD class=headline>Chronology of events related to new influenza </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>20:43</TD><TD class=headline>1st domestic infections of new flu confirmed in Japan

</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>20:09</TD><TD class=headline>1st domestic infection of new flu confirmed in Japan

</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>19:53</TD><TD class=headline>Japan firms dismayed by flu detection in person with no travel record </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>18:31</TD><TD class=headline>New flu may 'already be gradually spreading' in Japan: expert panel </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>18:10</TD><TD class=headline>New flu may 'already be gradually spreading' in Japan: expert panel </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>17:19</TD><TD class=headline>India reports 1st case of new flu </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>17:02</TD><TD class=headline>India reports 1st case of new flu </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>16:59</TD><TD class=headline>1st domestic infection of new flu confirmed in Japan

</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>16:23</TD><TD class=headline>2nd new flu case reported in Malaysia </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>15:19</TD><TD class=headline>1st domestic infection of new flu confirmed in Japan </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>15:11</TD><TD class=headline>Masuzoe urges public to remain calm, act properly </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>14:25</TD><TD class=headline>1st domestic infection of new flu confirmed in Japan </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>13:43</TD><TD class=headline>1st domestic infection of new flu confirmed in Japan </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>13:17</TD><TD class=headline>Student infected with new flu discharged </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>12:54</TD><TD class=headline>1st domestic infection of new flu confirmed in Japan </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>12:07</TD><TD class=headline>1st domestic case of new flu infection confirmed in Japan </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>11:40</TD><TD class=headline>Kobe teens with no overseas travel record test positive for new flu </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>09:07</TD><TD class=headline>China lifts flu-linked quarantine of Japanese nationals </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>08:41</TD><TD class=headline>Kobe teens with no overseas travel record suspected of having new flu </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=date>May.16 </TD><TD class=time>07:39</TD><TD class=headline>Kobe teen with no overseas travel record suspected of having new flu </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=date>May.15 </TD><TD class=time>22:43</TD><TD class=headline>All but 1 leave hotel 1 week after contact with new-flu patients

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

It seems a symptom of a community spread of novel H1N1 influenza virus. I am sure that Japanese health officials are investigating any possible network of relation between these individuals in order to obtain a clear picture of the events.

It is crucial: if a network exists, it may be controlled; if not, the risk is a situation USA-like.

A detailed update from Japan is anticipated.

 

[wotan]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

It seems a symptom of a community spread of novel H1N1 influenza virus. I am sure that Japanese health officials are investigating any possible network of relation between these individuals in order to obtain a clear picture of the events.

Well, the "definition" of community spread seems to be changing rapidly: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/frequently_asked_questions/levels_pandemic_alert/en/. My understanding, so far, is that these cases are in schools, which is therefore not a community. :banghead:

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

Well, the "definition" of community spread seems to be changing rapidly: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/frequently_asked_questions/levels_pandemic_alert/en/. My understanding, so far, is that these cases are in schools, which is therefore not a community. :banghead:

Yes. I agree.

Because I have highlighted the investigation for a possible ''network'' of relations: schools could be one of this network...

 

[ImMe]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

Its quite possible that Japan is the first country where they are actually A) Investigating all the possible cases B) reporting them.
At least in USA they dont even try to report cases any more and mostly just tell possible patients to stay at home.
Im still under the impressions that there is LOT more cases than reported. I mean at this point we might be talking about hundreds of thousands cases.

 

[Farmer]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

I agree, we are learning about a rapidly increasing number of cases in Japan in part because Japanese health authorities are actively seeking cases; are actively testing many samples; and are quickly reporting them to determine the geographic spread and potential for disease transmission links within the country.

For an overview of how surveillance methods affect the number of reported cases see:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=234438#post234438

 

[AlexanderSJones]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

Even CDC officials have admitted that U.S. H1N1 cases have probably exceeded 100,000

http://www.naturalnews.com/026288.html

 

[AlexanderSJones]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

<duplicate>

 

[HenryN]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

I agree, we are learning about a rapidly increasing number of cases in Japan in part because Japanese health authorities are actively seeking cases; are actively testing many samples; and are quickly reporting them to determine the geographic spread and potential for disease transmission links within the country.

For an overview of how surveillance methods affect the number of reported cases see:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=234438#post234438

Yes, the numbers are largely dependent on testing. Japan is agressively testing. One high school has something like 134 students out sick. I suspect most were tested and were positive, accounting for a large % of confirmed cases.

The CDC has "estimated" 100,000 cases in the US, which is almost 2 orders of maginitude higher than confirmed cases, and is probably 1-2 orders of maginitude too low. A more realistic number for the US woild be 1-10 million (head-patting press releases notwithstanding).

 

[Diane Morin]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

Yes, the numbers are largely dependent on testing. Japan is agressively testing. One high school has something like 134 students out sick. I suspect most were tested and were positive, accounting for a large % of confirmed cases.

The Lycée of Okura is located in the prefecture of Osaka.

"The local authorities in Osaka said many of the new cases detected in the prefecture were connected to Kansai Okura Senior High School in the city of Ibaraki and none of the students had traveled overseas recently.

A total of 143 Okura high school students had been absent from the school this month due to flu-like symptoms such as fever. The privately run school said it will be closed from Monday through Saturday."

http://www.japantoday.com/category/...ore-flu-cases-total-domestic-cases-rise-to-21


With the documentation, of which I had yesterday on a total 93 confirmed cases:

4 cases airport of Nakita (Prefecture of Chiba)
53 cases of Kobe (Prefecture of Hyogo)
36 cases of Osaka (Prefecture of Osaka)

"Late Sunday officials in Hyogo prefecture, which includes Kobe, told AFP 53 cases had been confirmed, while Osaka prefecture reported 36, raising the national toll to 93, including the four overseas infections."

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breaki...0518-205609/Japan-confirms-93-swine-flu-cases

The other cases reported since always relate to the prefectures of Hyogo and Osaka without I being able to distribute them.


Map:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=234835&postcount=45

 

[Diane Morin]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

Today​

4 cases airport of Nakita (Prefecture of Chiba)​

93 cases of Kobe (Prefecture of Hyogo)​

70 cases of Osaka (Prefecture of Osaka)​

新型の豚インフルエンザの感染が確認された人は１８日午後１１時半現在で、１６３人（成田空港の検疫で判明した４人を含む）に増えた。​

People were infected with swine flu in the new 18 today at 11 pm Sunday, 163 people (out of quarantine at Narita airport, including four people) has increased.

感染者の居住地も広がり、新たに兵庫県の尼崎市や三田市、大阪府能勢町などが加わった。​

Spread of infection and place of residence, the city of Amagasaki, Hyogo Prefecture, and Sanda new town and joined Nose, Osaka Prefecture.

大阪市は感染の広がりを警戒し、市内ではまだ感染者が出ていない小学校や幼稚園も含め子どもらの健康調査を始めた。​

Osaka City is wary of the spread of infection, the city began to investigate the health of primary school and kindergarten children, including some not yet infected.

感染者数は大阪府７０人、兵庫県９３人。​

The number of people infected is 70, Osaka, Hyogo 93.

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&u=http://www.asahi.com/&ei=E4oRSsjqNNOLtgf9lZT4Bw&sa=X&oi=translate&resnum=2&ct=result&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dasahi%26hl%3Den

 

[Diane Morin]

Re: The rapid rise of cases in Japan

Today​

4 cases airport of Nakita (Prefecture of Chiba)​

93 cases of Kobe (Prefecture of Hyogo)​

70 cases of Osaka (Prefecture of Osaka) - private Kansai Okura High School (Ibaraki, Osaka) in 43 infected students. ​

*****************************

Machine translation​

"Five people infected," Yao Osaka elementary school survey to understand

。 Infected with avian flu are being expanded in Osaka and Hyogo Prefecture, five elementary school children's book of Yao City, Osaka, Nanshan had infected 19 people, from parents in the health of all children following the previous day hearing, or investigation will not have outbreaks.

Opportunities could lead to infection or five people had not'm starting, and Osaka, began to gather information to clarify the route of infection. <o></o>
The school has 17 girls in a small, six people were infected. 18, men and women of the same class with these three girls and three new cases of infected children was Person of Year.

The infection was confirmed this in a total of 163 people. Komoto of five of the Nanzan, private Kansai Okura High School (Ibaraki, Osaka) in 43 infected students.

Southern High School in Kobe, Hyogo Prefectural both (Nada Ward, Kobe), 14, a high school in Hyogo (Nagata-ku) is 17 and who have been cases of infection are believed to have spread in the school population.
<o></o>
Schools, more opportunities and close links with the club activities at school and, in particular the case of elementary school, children living in a single. Namsan Komoto, therefore, do not spread the infection, along with a detailed understanding of children's health, and promote the prevention of infection and to disinfect the school.
<o></o>
【共同通信】[Agencies]
<o></o>
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&u=http://www.kyodo.co.jp/&ei=5IYRSojbKJSQ9QT3oJyhBg&sa=X&oi=translate&resnum=4&ct=result&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dkyodo%26hl%3Den<o></o>​