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http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=the-threat-is-deadly-serious-2009-11-03
The threat is deadly serious
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
YUSUF KANLI
The H1N1, or ?swine flu,? death toll is increasing in Turkey.
The situation is not as bad as it is in Ukraine, where in one week more than 60 people fell victim to the virus or a deadly variant and lost their lives. But Turkish officials are stressing that unless vaccinations are vigorously applied and increased public and individual hygiene measures are taken, as many as 21 million Turks might be affected as winter sets in. The resulting death toll, they say, could be in the thousands.
Almost three weeks ago, the Turkish Health Ministry made an assessment and prepared both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. According to the optimistic scenario, the H1N1 virus will not develop a deadlier variant; members of all risk groups in Turkey will accept vaccinations; local administrations, hospitals and individuals will work to improve both public and individual hygiene and consequently just 1.8 million Turks will be affected by the pandemic, with a death toll of around 400.
If the vaccination program does not succeed, however, the Health Ministry?s pessimistic scenario forecasts that some 21 million people out of the country?s population of more than 73 million will be affected by the virus and the death toll might reach 5,300 or more.
In view of the fact that an average 16,000 Turks lose their lives every year to flu and related respiratory illnesses, it can be argued that the H1N1 pandemic might be over-exaggerated, and that not only Turks, but all of humanity has become unnecessarily panicked due to some officious local health officials and executives of the World Health Organization.
What?s happening in Ukraine, however, indicates that the virus might have developed a more deadly variant and that the present-day swine-flu phobia might indeed be underestimating the dimensions of the global threat.
Officially, some 2,000 Turks are reported to have been infected with the H1N1 influenza virus, but Health Minister Recep Akdağ and leading medical professors are stressing that the actual number infected is probably at least fivefold higher than that figure. The ministry has been critical of the media reporting each and every case and has declared that it will no longer disclose the number of people infected.
Hospitals, on the other hand, have stopped testing whether people are affected, instead they examine the symptoms and only those patients who doctors conclude from an external examination may have been infected are tested. This practice may be aimed at cutting the cost of the fight against the influenza pandemic, but by letting potentially infected people engage with others, the ministry and hospitals are, in a way, helping the pandemic spread. In addition, despite repeated assertions by the Health Ministry that cleanliness is vitally important in battling this serious threat, the hygienic situation at most Turkish public hospitals and local health-care centers is appalling.
Despite some objections from some leading doctors that the vaccine has not been properly tested and could produce some severe side effects ? perhaps more serious that the much-feared influenza pandemic ? Turkey started its vaccination campaign this week. Health personnel are being given priority for vaccinations along with the pilgrims travelling to Saudi Arabia for the annual Muslim hajj. So far so good. Yet the prime minister of the country bluntly declared yesterday that he would not be vaccinated.
Acknowledging that the health minister had called for vaccinations and was vaccinated himself, the prime minister said ?there are lots of speculations about the swine flu.?
?I want to express one thing. Please don?t kiss others and when you shake hands, please wash your hands and if there is a possibility of infection, immediately use disinfectants,? Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said. ?As regards vaccination, I disagree with the health minister. It is all right if my citizens, of their own free will, decide to be vaccinated.?
Of course it is up to the premier to decide whether he wants to be vaccinated or not. Perhaps someone has advised him that getting vaccinated might be exploited by his adversaries to kill his macho image. Yet, as the prime minister of this country, a leading political figure admired by millions of people, does Erdoğan have the right to publicly say that he does not want to be vaccinated and thus discourage the public?
Did not the Health Ministry present him with the latest assessments regarding the spread of the virus in Turkey and the importance of vaccination in preventing, or at least slowing down, the spread of this pandemic among the citizens of this country? Was not he presented with the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios?
Perhaps the health minister must brief Erdoğan once again on how grave the threat is
The threat is deadly serious
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
YUSUF KANLI
The H1N1, or ?swine flu,? death toll is increasing in Turkey.
The situation is not as bad as it is in Ukraine, where in one week more than 60 people fell victim to the virus or a deadly variant and lost their lives. But Turkish officials are stressing that unless vaccinations are vigorously applied and increased public and individual hygiene measures are taken, as many as 21 million Turks might be affected as winter sets in. The resulting death toll, they say, could be in the thousands.
Almost three weeks ago, the Turkish Health Ministry made an assessment and prepared both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. According to the optimistic scenario, the H1N1 virus will not develop a deadlier variant; members of all risk groups in Turkey will accept vaccinations; local administrations, hospitals and individuals will work to improve both public and individual hygiene and consequently just 1.8 million Turks will be affected by the pandemic, with a death toll of around 400.
If the vaccination program does not succeed, however, the Health Ministry?s pessimistic scenario forecasts that some 21 million people out of the country?s population of more than 73 million will be affected by the virus and the death toll might reach 5,300 or more.
In view of the fact that an average 16,000 Turks lose their lives every year to flu and related respiratory illnesses, it can be argued that the H1N1 pandemic might be over-exaggerated, and that not only Turks, but all of humanity has become unnecessarily panicked due to some officious local health officials and executives of the World Health Organization.
What?s happening in Ukraine, however, indicates that the virus might have developed a more deadly variant and that the present-day swine-flu phobia might indeed be underestimating the dimensions of the global threat.
Officially, some 2,000 Turks are reported to have been infected with the H1N1 influenza virus, but Health Minister Recep Akdağ and leading medical professors are stressing that the actual number infected is probably at least fivefold higher than that figure. The ministry has been critical of the media reporting each and every case and has declared that it will no longer disclose the number of people infected.
Hospitals, on the other hand, have stopped testing whether people are affected, instead they examine the symptoms and only those patients who doctors conclude from an external examination may have been infected are tested. This practice may be aimed at cutting the cost of the fight against the influenza pandemic, but by letting potentially infected people engage with others, the ministry and hospitals are, in a way, helping the pandemic spread. In addition, despite repeated assertions by the Health Ministry that cleanliness is vitally important in battling this serious threat, the hygienic situation at most Turkish public hospitals and local health-care centers is appalling.
Despite some objections from some leading doctors that the vaccine has not been properly tested and could produce some severe side effects ? perhaps more serious that the much-feared influenza pandemic ? Turkey started its vaccination campaign this week. Health personnel are being given priority for vaccinations along with the pilgrims travelling to Saudi Arabia for the annual Muslim hajj. So far so good. Yet the prime minister of the country bluntly declared yesterday that he would not be vaccinated.
Acknowledging that the health minister had called for vaccinations and was vaccinated himself, the prime minister said ?there are lots of speculations about the swine flu.?
?I want to express one thing. Please don?t kiss others and when you shake hands, please wash your hands and if there is a possibility of infection, immediately use disinfectants,? Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said. ?As regards vaccination, I disagree with the health minister. It is all right if my citizens, of their own free will, decide to be vaccinated.?
Of course it is up to the premier to decide whether he wants to be vaccinated or not. Perhaps someone has advised him that getting vaccinated might be exploited by his adversaries to kill his macho image. Yet, as the prime minister of this country, a leading political figure admired by millions of people, does Erdoğan have the right to publicly say that he does not want to be vaccinated and thus discourage the public?
Did not the Health Ministry present him with the latest assessments regarding the spread of the virus in Turkey and the importance of vaccination in preventing, or at least slowing down, the spread of this pandemic among the citizens of this country? Was not he presented with the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios?
Perhaps the health minister must brief Erdoğan once again on how grave the threat is