This Fall in North Hemi: Probability of catching H1N1 vs Common Cold?

[somebodyoutthere]

I hope this is the correct place to post random, possibly dumb questions.

I've recently been seeing media reports out of Britain that estimate up to 30% of the population may contract H1N1 this fall. Often, they say that the 30% is a "worst case scenario."

My questions:

1. How does that compare to the percentage of the population that normally contracts a common cold during the same time period? I found one source that said young adults each have about .7 colds per year (whereas children have 1.2 per year), so that translates into a pretty high percentage overall (90% I'm math illiterate.. )

2. How accurate is the 30% estimate for H1N1? I thought I had previously read that up to 30% of the population could be sick AT THE SAME TIME with H1N1...but that's not the same as 30% overall for the entire flu season.

 

[gsgs]

Re: This Fall in North Hemi: Probability of catching H1N1 vs Common Cold?

30% for the whole pandemic
(or per wave ?)

almost everyone was exposed in 1918, some asymptomatic

children get more colds, AFAIR, 3 per year or such

.--------edit----------

quick google search gave:

children get an average of eight colds per year
children get between five and nine colds per year
children get at least 6 colds per year
Most children get between 4 and 12 colds per year and adults between 2 and 6
Most children get between six and ten colds per year