tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Gac Sanit. 2011 May 2. [Epub ahead of print]
[Transmissibility and severity of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus in Spain.]
[Article in Spanish]
Sim?n M?ndez L, de Mateo Onta??n S, Larrauri C?mara A, Jim?nez-Jorge S, Vaqu? Rafart J, P?rez Hoyos S; en representaci?n del Sistema de Vigilancia de Gripe en Espa?a (SVGE).
Source
?rea de Vigilancia de la Salud P?blica, Centro Nacional de Epidemiolog?a, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Espa?a.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES:
To estimate the value of the basic reproduction number for the pandemic wave of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Spain and to assess its impact on morbidity and mortality in the Spanish population compared with those in the previous influenza season.
METHODS:
Data on the incidence of influenza and viral detections were obtained from the Spanish Influenza Surveillance System. Deaths from pandemic influenza were obtained from the Coordinating Center for Health Alerts and Emergencies of the Spanish Ministry of Health and Social Policy, and deaths from seasonal influenza during the period 2003-2008 were obtained from the National Statistics Institute. The reproduction number was estimated by two methods: firstly, by using the growth rate of the cumulative incidence of influenza during the exponential growth phase of the pandemic wave, and secondly (maximum likelihood estimation), through analysis the dates of onset of symptoms observed in pairs of cases based on generation time distribution. We calculated the fatality rate and mortality from influenza by comparing potential years of life lost in the pandemic season with those in previous interpandemic seasons.
RESULTS:
The start of the pandemic wave occurred in Spain earlier in week 40/2009 (from 4 to 10 October), with an absolute predominance of the new strain in the pattern of circulating viruses. The value of R(0) in the growth phase of the wave was 1.29 (95% CI: 1.25-1.33), estimated with the first method, and was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.99-1.03) with the second method. During the pandemic season, there were 318 deaths from pandemic influenza, affecting younger age groups than in previous interpandemic seasons. Consequently, the number of potential years of life lost in the pandemic season (11,612) was estimated at six times the adjusted annual average of the interpandemic influenza seasons for comparison (1,802).
CONCLUSIONS:
The estimates of R(0) for the growth phase of the pandemic wave were in the lower range of estimates of this parameter in previous pandemics. Mortality indicators calculated in the pandemic period showed an increase in deaths compared with previous interpandemic seasons, which was most pronounced in young patients.
Copyright ? 2010 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.
PMID:
21543138
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Free Article
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21543138
[Transmissibility and severity of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus in Spain.]
[Article in Spanish]
Sim?n M?ndez L, de Mateo Onta??n S, Larrauri C?mara A, Jim?nez-Jorge S, Vaqu? Rafart J, P?rez Hoyos S; en representaci?n del Sistema de Vigilancia de Gripe en Espa?a (SVGE).
Source
?rea de Vigilancia de la Salud P?blica, Centro Nacional de Epidemiolog?a, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Espa?a.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES:
To estimate the value of the basic reproduction number for the pandemic wave of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Spain and to assess its impact on morbidity and mortality in the Spanish population compared with those in the previous influenza season.
METHODS:
Data on the incidence of influenza and viral detections were obtained from the Spanish Influenza Surveillance System. Deaths from pandemic influenza were obtained from the Coordinating Center for Health Alerts and Emergencies of the Spanish Ministry of Health and Social Policy, and deaths from seasonal influenza during the period 2003-2008 were obtained from the National Statistics Institute. The reproduction number was estimated by two methods: firstly, by using the growth rate of the cumulative incidence of influenza during the exponential growth phase of the pandemic wave, and secondly (maximum likelihood estimation), through analysis the dates of onset of symptoms observed in pairs of cases based on generation time distribution. We calculated the fatality rate and mortality from influenza by comparing potential years of life lost in the pandemic season with those in previous interpandemic seasons.
RESULTS:
The start of the pandemic wave occurred in Spain earlier in week 40/2009 (from 4 to 10 October), with an absolute predominance of the new strain in the pattern of circulating viruses. The value of R(0) in the growth phase of the wave was 1.29 (95% CI: 1.25-1.33), estimated with the first method, and was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.99-1.03) with the second method. During the pandemic season, there were 318 deaths from pandemic influenza, affecting younger age groups than in previous interpandemic seasons. Consequently, the number of potential years of life lost in the pandemic season (11,612) was estimated at six times the adjusted annual average of the interpandemic influenza seasons for comparison (1,802).
CONCLUSIONS:
The estimates of R(0) for the growth phase of the pandemic wave were in the lower range of estimates of this parameter in previous pandemics. Mortality indicators calculated in the pandemic period showed an increase in deaths compared with previous interpandemic seasons, which was most pronounced in young patients.
Copyright ? 2010 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.
PMID:
21543138
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Free Article
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21543138