Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Tropical storm threatens to develop, could track into Gulf of Mexico
By Brian McNoldy
August 20 at 10:31 am
There?s a good chance area of thunderstorms in the Atlantic could organize into the fourth tropical cyclone and the third named storm of the 2014 hurricane season. On Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center was giving this area a 50 percent chance of developing over the next five days.
Weather models are in good agreement that Tropical Storm Cristobal (pronounced krees-TOH-bahl) will form from this disturbance and track through the northern Caribbean as a weak and disorganized storm. Beyond that, there might not even be a storm left. But it?s also possible that we?ll be looking at a strengthening storm entering the Gulf of Mexico in a week. Either scenario is possible, so for now, we have the luxury of time to wait and watch.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...s-to-develop-could-track-into-gulf-of-mexico/
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<!-- END OF CONTENTS --><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD>This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30.
Tropical Weather Outlook Text
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated areaof low pressure located several hundred miles east of the WindwardIslands has become a little better organized during the past fewhours. Additional slow development of this system is possible duringthe next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as thesystem moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the LesserAntilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that time, land interaction could limit development potential over the weekend. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday. Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled toi nvestigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent. Forecaster Brennan
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg
By Brian McNoldy
August 20 at 10:31 am
There?s a good chance area of thunderstorms in the Atlantic could organize into the fourth tropical cyclone and the third named storm of the 2014 hurricane season. On Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center was giving this area a 50 percent chance of developing over the next five days.
Weather models are in good agreement that Tropical Storm Cristobal (pronounced krees-TOH-bahl) will form from this disturbance and track through the northern Caribbean as a weak and disorganized storm. Beyond that, there might not even be a storm left. But it?s also possible that we?ll be looking at a strengthening storm entering the Gulf of Mexico in a week. Either scenario is possible, so for now, we have the luxury of time to wait and watch.
...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...s-to-develop-could-track-into-gulf-of-mexico/
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<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=565><TBODY><TR><TD>
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<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width=565><TBODY><TR><TD style="WHITE-SPACE: nowrap" class=size12ptbold align=center>View 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width=565><TBODY><TR><TD style="WHITE-SPACE: nowrap" class=size12ptbold align=center>View 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- END OF CONTENTS --><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD>This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30.
Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated areaof low pressure located several hundred miles east of the WindwardIslands has become a little better organized during the past fewhours. Additional slow development of this system is possible duringthe next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as thesystem moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the LesserAntilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that time, land interaction could limit development potential over the weekend. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday. Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled toi nvestigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent. Forecaster Brennan
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg