TrueScotsman
Well-known member
Weekly pandemic flu media update
26 November 2009
KEY POINTS
The consultation rate for flu-like illness in England from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) scheme has increased slightly to 39.2 per 100,000 in week 47 compared to 35.9 in week 46. This remains above the English baseline threshold of 30/100,000.
The estimated cases self referring to the National Pandemic Flu Service have shown a slight increase. These are primarily the result of increases in collection rates in the 1-4 and 5-14 year old age groups.
Interpretation of data to produce estimates on the number of new cases continues to be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty. HPA modelling gives an estimate of 46,000 new cases in England last week (range 23,000 to 99,000) which represents a decrease from the previous week.
This estimate incorporates data from National Pandemic Flu Service and GP consultations.
The HPA estimates a cumulative total number of cases of 760,000 (with a range 360,000 to 1,580,000) since the pandemic began.
A more detailed UK weekly epidemiology update can be accessed at:
www.hpa.org.uk/swineflu/surveillance&epidemiology
CLINICAL INDICATORS
Clinical data are obtained from GP surgeries that report the weekly and daily consultations for flu-like illness and other acute respiratory illness.
Current estimated weekly Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) consultation rates of flu-like illness
From a network of approximately 100 general practices covering a population of approximately 900,000 with an equal distribution within each of three defined reporting regions; North, Central and South.
In week 47 (ending 22 November) GP consultation rates for flu-like illness in England have shown a slight increase compared to the previous week (35.9 per 100,000 in week 46 to 39.2 per 100,000 in week 47) which is still above the English baseline threshold of 30/100,000
Figure 1: Current estimated weekly RCGP consultation rates of flu-like illness
NB: QSurveillance? is based on data from 43% of England's population (about 3000 practices), 10% of the population in Wales, 17% in Northern Ireland, and 0% in Scotland.
Figure 2: QSurveillance? - weekly consultation rate for flu-like illness in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (all ages)
Figure 3: QSurveillance? - weekly consultation rate for influenza-like illness by English SHA (all ages)
Figure 4: QSurveillance influenza-like illness rate by age band in week 47 (ending 22 November)
VIRAL CHARACTERISTICS
To date (as of 25 November 2009) 3,695 viruses have been analysed by the HPA Centre for Infections for the genetic marker commonly associated with resistance to oseltamivir in seasonal H1N1 flu (H274Y). 22 viruses have been found to carry this marker in the UK with three of these, through additional testing, showing evidence of resistance when viral growth is tested in the presence of oseltamivir whilst retaining sensitivity to zanamivir. In addition, 293 specimens have been fully tested for susceptibility.
Information on medical history was available for 17 cases, all of whom had an underlying medical condition: 14 were immunosuppressed and three had chronic respiratory or neurological illnesses.
Testing of samples, taken before and after treatment with oseltamivir, show that the antiviral resistance in 14 of the cases was treatment-induced, four are probably acquired through person to person transmission, and in four cases the origin of the resistant virus is still under investigation.
The agency is continually assessing its advice to government on health protection policies such as antiviral use. Currently there is no requirement to change existing guidance.
There have been no significant changes in the virus.
SEVERITY
Disease severity continues to be monitored. The disease is generally mild in most people so far, but is proving severe in a small minority of cases.
Swine flu hospitalisations in England: 783 patients (currently hospitalised as of 8am on 25 November).
Deaths - the number of deaths related to swine flu in England is 163 (This figure represents the number of deaths in individuals with swine flu but does not represent the number of deaths that can be attributed to swine flu).
INTERNATIONAL SUMMARY
Total deaths reported: 7,909
In the last 7 days, the total number of deaths reported globally has increased by 10% on the previous week.
Link: http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1259151904456?p=1231252394302
26 November 2009
KEY POINTS
The consultation rate for flu-like illness in England from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) scheme has increased slightly to 39.2 per 100,000 in week 47 compared to 35.9 in week 46. This remains above the English baseline threshold of 30/100,000.
The estimated cases self referring to the National Pandemic Flu Service have shown a slight increase. These are primarily the result of increases in collection rates in the 1-4 and 5-14 year old age groups.
Interpretation of data to produce estimates on the number of new cases continues to be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty. HPA modelling gives an estimate of 46,000 new cases in England last week (range 23,000 to 99,000) which represents a decrease from the previous week.
This estimate incorporates data from National Pandemic Flu Service and GP consultations.
The HPA estimates a cumulative total number of cases of 760,000 (with a range 360,000 to 1,580,000) since the pandemic began.
A more detailed UK weekly epidemiology update can be accessed at:
www.hpa.org.uk/swineflu/surveillance&epidemiology
CLINICAL INDICATORS
Clinical data are obtained from GP surgeries that report the weekly and daily consultations for flu-like illness and other acute respiratory illness.
Current estimated weekly Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) consultation rates of flu-like illness
From a network of approximately 100 general practices covering a population of approximately 900,000 with an equal distribution within each of three defined reporting regions; North, Central and South.
In week 47 (ending 22 November) GP consultation rates for flu-like illness in England have shown a slight increase compared to the previous week (35.9 per 100,000 in week 46 to 39.2 per 100,000 in week 47) which is still above the English baseline threshold of 30/100,000
Figure 1: Current estimated weekly RCGP consultation rates of flu-like illness
NB: QSurveillance? is based on data from 43% of England's population (about 3000 practices), 10% of the population in Wales, 17% in Northern Ireland, and 0% in Scotland.
Figure 2: QSurveillance? - weekly consultation rate for flu-like illness in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (all ages)
Figure 3: QSurveillance? - weekly consultation rate for influenza-like illness by English SHA (all ages)
Figure 4: QSurveillance influenza-like illness rate by age band in week 47 (ending 22 November)
VIRAL CHARACTERISTICS
To date (as of 25 November 2009) 3,695 viruses have been analysed by the HPA Centre for Infections for the genetic marker commonly associated with resistance to oseltamivir in seasonal H1N1 flu (H274Y). 22 viruses have been found to carry this marker in the UK with three of these, through additional testing, showing evidence of resistance when viral growth is tested in the presence of oseltamivir whilst retaining sensitivity to zanamivir. In addition, 293 specimens have been fully tested for susceptibility.
Information on medical history was available for 17 cases, all of whom had an underlying medical condition: 14 were immunosuppressed and three had chronic respiratory or neurological illnesses.
Testing of samples, taken before and after treatment with oseltamivir, show that the antiviral resistance in 14 of the cases was treatment-induced, four are probably acquired through person to person transmission, and in four cases the origin of the resistant virus is still under investigation.
The agency is continually assessing its advice to government on health protection policies such as antiviral use. Currently there is no requirement to change existing guidance.
There have been no significant changes in the virus.
SEVERITY
Disease severity continues to be monitored. The disease is generally mild in most people so far, but is proving severe in a small minority of cases.
Swine flu hospitalisations in England: 783 patients (currently hospitalised as of 8am on 25 November).
Deaths - the number of deaths related to swine flu in England is 163 (This figure represents the number of deaths in individuals with swine flu but does not represent the number of deaths that can be attributed to swine flu).
INTERNATIONAL SUMMARY
Total deaths reported: 7,909
In the last 7 days, the total number of deaths reported globally has increased by 10% on the previous week.
Link: http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1259151904456?p=1231252394302
