Re: What to look for in August....
I completely agree with all of your points. Anyone that tells you with any kind of certainty what this virus will do in the future is not to be trusted, including those that take the position that this is an exact repeat of the very ugly 1918 event. We simply do not know what will or will not happen with certainty.
Having said that, we do know what we have in hand in the way of scientific evidence that can be compared to previous pandemics, and by that I mean, not just 1918, but 1957 and 1968 as well. The current Swine Flu virus is simply, in its current form, not the same as any of those prior pandemic viruses in terms of causing serious illness. All three of the previous viruses had genetic markers that this virus does not have, and perhaps as importantly, the seasonal flu viruses have those same genetic markers that this Swine Flu virus does not have. Add to that all of the epidemiology we have in hand to date, and this virus is not what one would categorize as "lethal". Therefore, our expectations for the future should not be too dire based on what we know today.
But, the virus could change for the worse, so we must monitor it closely. We were initially very concerned with the high fatalities we were seeing in Mexico as compared to the experience in the US and Canada. However, on careful review of all of the data and an examiniation of the virus, there was no cause of alarm. The virus that attached Mexico (in its numerous variant forms) is almost the identical virus that has attacked every other country across the globe. But when you get a whole lot of people in close quarters (Mexico City, New York, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Buenes Aires, etc.) this virus will cause a whole lot of illness, and therefore, increased hospitalizations and deaths.
To date, all of the viruses from those numerous countries look basically the same as the virus that is circulating in all other parts of the world. There are differences, and that is how we can track their spread, but the differences are not significant in terms of virulence.
The HA segment of the Swine Flu virus looks identical to the 1918 virus as to the material genetic markers, and that is not a surprise. We have known that from the very beginning. The HA came from swine infected by the original 1918 virus that has been evolving in swine herds for 90 years. However, the other gene segments of the Swine Flu virus are not currently comparable to the 1918 virus, so we should not expect this pandemic to necessarily play out like the one in 1918 unless other, material changes occur in the genome.
Based on all this information, the CDC is likely to revise their school guidance on Friday of this week. It will not, and should not, look like the guidance for a country that is expecting another 1918 event.
I completely agree with all of your points. Anyone that tells you with any kind of certainty what this virus will do in the future is not to be trusted, including those that take the position that this is an exact repeat of the very ugly 1918 event. We simply do not know what will or will not happen with certainty.
Having said that, we do know what we have in hand in the way of scientific evidence that can be compared to previous pandemics, and by that I mean, not just 1918, but 1957 and 1968 as well. The current Swine Flu virus is simply, in its current form, not the same as any of those prior pandemic viruses in terms of causing serious illness. All three of the previous viruses had genetic markers that this virus does not have, and perhaps as importantly, the seasonal flu viruses have those same genetic markers that this Swine Flu virus does not have. Add to that all of the epidemiology we have in hand to date, and this virus is not what one would categorize as "lethal". Therefore, our expectations for the future should not be too dire based on what we know today.
But, the virus could change for the worse, so we must monitor it closely. We were initially very concerned with the high fatalities we were seeing in Mexico as compared to the experience in the US and Canada. However, on careful review of all of the data and an examiniation of the virus, there was no cause of alarm. The virus that attached Mexico (in its numerous variant forms) is almost the identical virus that has attacked every other country across the globe. But when you get a whole lot of people in close quarters (Mexico City, New York, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Buenes Aires, etc.) this virus will cause a whole lot of illness, and therefore, increased hospitalizations and deaths.
To date, all of the viruses from those numerous countries look basically the same as the virus that is circulating in all other parts of the world. There are differences, and that is how we can track their spread, but the differences are not significant in terms of virulence.
The HA segment of the Swine Flu virus looks identical to the 1918 virus as to the material genetic markers, and that is not a surprise. We have known that from the very beginning. The HA came from swine infected by the original 1918 virus that has been evolving in swine herds for 90 years. However, the other gene segments of the Swine Flu virus are not currently comparable to the 1918 virus, so we should not expect this pandemic to necessarily play out like the one in 1918 unless other, material changes occur in the genome.
Based on all this information, the CDC is likely to revise their school guidance on Friday of this week. It will not, and should not, look like the guidance for a country that is expecting another 1918 event.
~71 confirmed deaths in this age group versus an estimate that we may normally be at the same point. During the first few weeks of last year's season how many confirmed deaths did Australia have in this age group?
