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What to look for in August....
- Thread starter Jeremy
- Start date
wotan
Well-known member
Re: What to look for in August....
My understanding is that it is based, in part, on the CDC's tracking of P&I (pneumonia and influenza) related deaths, as well as influenza surveillance, etc. But the key point is that those 36,000 deaths are not tied to a case where someone died with a positive flu test. They had ILI and/or pneumonia and so it is assumed that flu contributed, but it is not confirmed the way the ~400 known US deaths from swine flu have been confirmed.
My understanding is that it is based, in part, on the CDC's tracking of P&I (pneumonia and influenza) related deaths, as well as influenza surveillance, etc. But the key point is that those 36,000 deaths are not tied to a case where someone died with a positive flu test. They had ILI and/or pneumonia and so it is assumed that flu contributed, but it is not confirmed the way the ~400 known US deaths from swine flu have been confirmed.
Farmer
Senior Moderator
Re: What to look for in August....
The estimate of 36,000 influenza deaths in the US per year comes from this paper:
Mortality Associated With Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United States
William W. Thompson, PhD; David K. Shay, MD, MPH; Eric Weintraub, MPH; Lynnette Brammer, MPH; Nancy Cox, PhD; Larry J. Anderson, MD; Keiji Fukuda, MD, MPH
JAMA. 2003;289:179-186.
http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/289/2/179
They estimated the mean, annual all-cause influenza-associated deaths in the US based upon a regression model using data from the 1976-77 flu season through the 1998-99 season at about 35,000. (See Table 2)
I am not sure if you can access the full content from your computer as I can, but here is the abstract:
ABSTRACT
Context Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cause substantial morbidity and mortality. Statistical methods used to estimate deaths in the United States attributable to influenza have not accounted for RSV circulation.
Objective To develop a statistical model using national mortality and viral surveillance data to estimate annual influenza- and RSV-associated deaths in the United States, by age group, virus, and influenza type and subtype.
Design, Setting, and Population Age-specific Poisson regression models using national viral surveillance data for the 1976-1977 through 1998-1999 seasons were used to estimate influenza-associated deaths. Influenza- and RSV-associated deaths were simultaneously estimated for the 1990-1991 through 1998-1999 seasons.
Main Outcome Measures Attributable deaths for 3 categories: underlying pneumonia and influenza, underlying respiratory and circulatory, and all causes.
Results Annual estimates of influenza-associated deaths increased significantly between the 1976-1977 and 1998-1999 seasons for all 3 death categories (P<.001 for each category). For the 1990-1991 through 1998-1999 seasons, the greatest mean numbers of deaths were associated with influenza A(H3N2) viruses, followed by RSV, influenza B, and influenza A(H1N1). Influenza viruses and RSV, respectively, were associated with annual means (SD) of 8097 (3084) and 2707 (196) underlying pneumonia and influenza deaths, 36 155 (11 055) and 11 321 (668) underlying respiratory and circulatory deaths, and 51 203 (15 081) and 17 358 (1086) all-cause deaths. For underlying respiratory and circulatory deaths, 90% of influenza- and 78% of RSV-associated deaths occurred among persons aged 65 years or older. Influenza was associated with more deaths than RSV in all age groups except for children younger than 1 year. On average, influenza was associated with 3 times as many deaths as RSV.
Conclusions Mortality associated with both influenza and RSV circulation disproportionately affects elderly persons. Influenza deaths have increased substantially in the last 2 decades, in part because of aging of the population, underscoring the need for better prevention measures, including more effective vaccines and vaccination programs for elderly persons.
The estimate of 36,000 influenza deaths in the US per year comes from this paper:
Mortality Associated With Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United States
William W. Thompson, PhD; David K. Shay, MD, MPH; Eric Weintraub, MPH; Lynnette Brammer, MPH; Nancy Cox, PhD; Larry J. Anderson, MD; Keiji Fukuda, MD, MPH
JAMA. 2003;289:179-186.
http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/289/2/179
They estimated the mean, annual all-cause influenza-associated deaths in the US based upon a regression model using data from the 1976-77 flu season through the 1998-99 season at about 35,000. (See Table 2)
I am not sure if you can access the full content from your computer as I can, but here is the abstract:
ABSTRACT
Context Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cause substantial morbidity and mortality. Statistical methods used to estimate deaths in the United States attributable to influenza have not accounted for RSV circulation.
Objective To develop a statistical model using national mortality and viral surveillance data to estimate annual influenza- and RSV-associated deaths in the United States, by age group, virus, and influenza type and subtype.
Design, Setting, and Population Age-specific Poisson regression models using national viral surveillance data for the 1976-1977 through 1998-1999 seasons were used to estimate influenza-associated deaths. Influenza- and RSV-associated deaths were simultaneously estimated for the 1990-1991 through 1998-1999 seasons.
Main Outcome Measures Attributable deaths for 3 categories: underlying pneumonia and influenza, underlying respiratory and circulatory, and all causes.
Results Annual estimates of influenza-associated deaths increased significantly between the 1976-1977 and 1998-1999 seasons for all 3 death categories (P<.001 for each category). For the 1990-1991 through 1998-1999 seasons, the greatest mean numbers of deaths were associated with influenza A(H3N2) viruses, followed by RSV, influenza B, and influenza A(H1N1). Influenza viruses and RSV, respectively, were associated with annual means (SD) of 8097 (3084) and 2707 (196) underlying pneumonia and influenza deaths, 36 155 (11 055) and 11 321 (668) underlying respiratory and circulatory deaths, and 51 203 (15 081) and 17 358 (1086) all-cause deaths. For underlying respiratory and circulatory deaths, 90% of influenza- and 78% of RSV-associated deaths occurred among persons aged 65 years or older. Influenza was associated with more deaths than RSV in all age groups except for children younger than 1 year. On average, influenza was associated with 3 times as many deaths as RSV.
Conclusions Mortality associated with both influenza and RSV circulation disproportionately affects elderly persons. Influenza deaths have increased substantially in the last 2 decades, in part because of aging of the population, underscoring the need for better prevention measures, including more effective vaccines and vaccination programs for elderly persons.
Last edited by a moderator:
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: What to look for in August....
I'd say that at the beginning of this current outbreak, the press was "crying wolf" because the erroneously picked up the H5N1 concerns and automatically translated them to novel H1N1. To sell a story they ignored the science.
Yes, as we've repeatedly said, CDC does NOT need to cry wolf. They absolutely need to maintain credibility.
I'm watching for increased deaths, or increased serious illness, especially among HCW. Even if lots of people survive, an enormous increase in serious illness can have devastating social and economic impacts.
Regarding the seasonal tamiflu resistance - that took 3 years to develop from the 1st cases to nearly 100% saturation. But I expect the same mutation in H1N1 to follow a different pattern because it is not starting from a single (or few) points and spreading, it's already available globally. The big question I'm wondering about is - will the other virulence mutations spread from single/few acquisitions, or will there be widespread almost simultaneous occurances?
.
I'd say that at the beginning of this current outbreak, the press was "crying wolf" because the erroneously picked up the H5N1 concerns and automatically translated them to novel H1N1. To sell a story they ignored the science.
Yes, as we've repeatedly said, CDC does NOT need to cry wolf. They absolutely need to maintain credibility.
I'm watching for increased deaths, or increased serious illness, especially among HCW. Even if lots of people survive, an enormous increase in serious illness can have devastating social and economic impacts.
Regarding the seasonal tamiflu resistance - that took 3 years to develop from the 1st cases to nearly 100% saturation. But I expect the same mutation in H1N1 to follow a different pattern because it is not starting from a single (or few) points and spreading, it's already available globally. The big question I'm wondering about is - will the other virulence mutations spread from single/few acquisitions, or will there be widespread almost simultaneous occurances?
.
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Re: What to look for in August....
What could stop the virus to mix with both in two different locations? H1N1 could mix in South America with the seasonal flu and in Asia with H5N1.
I have to give it 6-8 weeks. I think it will more widepread than we know before they tell us it has mutated or gathered strength. I also think it will still be an asian strain,"Vietnam area", that does the most killing...too much bf for it to not mix. Latin america doesn't seem to have a lot of BF laying around, so I don't feel mutation coming from that area. Remember Egypt and Africa are really just gettin started with it really, judging from reports so far anyway. The Hajj is comin up,"November" and that area is hot with bf too...not goodNeed I mention hurricane season is about to pick up..btw,did they have many in '17,'18, or 19? That and wartime prolly didnt help, and we are having Swine flu in area's our soldiers are in right now. They are travellers, too. The more travelling the faster any new mutation will be in our face. All just a hunch, or a humble opinon! I recommend all prepping be put on the front burner, on high. :tiphat:
What could stop the virus to mix with both in two different locations? H1N1 could mix in South America with the seasonal flu and in Asia with H5N1.
Ronan Kelly
Retired 2020
Re: What to look for in August....
Hi,
I’m a numbers guy and am also troubled by the lack of comparable numbers. But there are things in the US that we can look at;
According to the Centers for Disease Control about 1,800 have flu as their direct cause of death each year (http://www.slate.com/id/2218367/). On average, 70 of those are younger than 18. Thus children make up 3.8% of annual confirmed flu deaths. (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/) However the CDC estimates that flu causes many more deaths each year by weakening the immune system and opening the door to opportunistic bacteria like pneumonia. So the CDC estimates that flu is “associated with” 51,000 deaths per year. (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm)
Using #s from the CDC for July 25th;
Just looking at confirmed #s only; 70 pediatric deaths per year(from regular flu) is 1.3 per week.
H1N1 has killed 29 children (confirmed) in 9 weeks, that's 3.2 per week.
1,800 confirmed deaths from seasonal flu is about 35 per week.
302 confirmed deaths (in 12 weeks) from H1N1 is about 25 per week. However this number is rising and has averaged 40+ the past three weeks.
Of the confirmed deaths, 9.6% are children, about 2 and a half times the rate for seasonal flu.
Important points, provisos;
The CDC admits that confirmed deaths for seasonal flu are only a tiny fraction of total deaths perhaps as low as 1 in 25.
Any accurate conclusions can only be determined by comparison between the testing and reporting protocals.
RoRo
That's my point.That number of 36,000 deaths keeps getting thrown around, but we've had "only" 400 some odd deaths from the pandemic. Different types of numbers are being used together and conclusions drawn from them.
Hi,
I’m a numbers guy and am also troubled by the lack of comparable numbers. But there are things in the US that we can look at;
According to the Centers for Disease Control about 1,800 have flu as their direct cause of death each year (http://www.slate.com/id/2218367/). On average, 70 of those are younger than 18. Thus children make up 3.8% of annual confirmed flu deaths. (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/) However the CDC estimates that flu causes many more deaths each year by weakening the immune system and opening the door to opportunistic bacteria like pneumonia. So the CDC estimates that flu is “associated with” 51,000 deaths per year. (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm)
Using #s from the CDC for July 25th;
Just looking at confirmed #s only; 70 pediatric deaths per year(from regular flu) is 1.3 per week.
H1N1 has killed 29 children (confirmed) in 9 weeks, that's 3.2 per week.
1,800 confirmed deaths from seasonal flu is about 35 per week.
302 confirmed deaths (in 12 weeks) from H1N1 is about 25 per week. However this number is rising and has averaged 40+ the past three weeks.
Of the confirmed deaths, 9.6% are children, about 2 and a half times the rate for seasonal flu.
Important points, provisos;
The CDC admits that confirmed deaths for seasonal flu are only a tiny fraction of total deaths perhaps as low as 1 in 25.
Any accurate conclusions can only be determined by comparison between the testing and reporting protocals.
RoRo
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: What to look for in August....
If the 1800 is the basis for the estimate of 36,000 then the ratio is 20:1.
That would make the (approx) 400 US swine flu deaths translate into 16,000 so far.
It appears that the 36,000 is a number meant to quell anxiety by giving some comparison that this is not as bad as. As such, we should not give much weight to it.
I think Dr Niman spoke to this with numbers and references but I can not find the thread.
Liam
Liam
That's my point.
According to the Centers for Disease Control about 1,800 have flu as their direct cause of death each year
The CDC admits that confirmed deaths for seasonal flu are only a tiny fraction of total deaths perhaps as low as 1 in 25.
Any accurate conclusions can only be determined by comparison between the testing and reporting protocals.
RoRo
If the 1800 is the basis for the estimate of 36,000 then the ratio is 20:1.
That would make the (approx) 400 US swine flu deaths translate into 16,000 so far.
It appears that the 36,000 is a number meant to quell anxiety by giving some comparison that this is not as bad as. As such, we should not give much weight to it.
I think Dr Niman spoke to this with numbers and references but I can not find the thread.
Liam
Liam
Last edited by a moderator:
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Re: What to look for in August....
1957 Asian Flu Pandemic
Excerpt:
"When US children went back to school in the fall, they spread the disease in classrooms and brought it home to their families. Infection rates were highest among school children, young adults, and pregnant women in October 1957. Most influenza-and pneumonia-related deaths occurred between September 1957 and March 1958. The elderly had the highest rates of death."
http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_pandemic-1957.htm
According to some virologists, this pandemic started in Louisiana when children began school in August. School in Louisiana is starting next week.
1957 Asian Flu Pandemic
Excerpt:
"When US children went back to school in the fall, they spread the disease in classrooms and brought it home to their families. Infection rates were highest among school children, young adults, and pregnant women in October 1957. Most influenza-and pneumonia-related deaths occurred between September 1957 and March 1958. The elderly had the highest rates of death."
http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_pandemic-1957.htm
According to some virologists, this pandemic started in Louisiana when children began school in August. School in Louisiana is starting next week.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Re: What to look for in August....
Welcome RoRo!
Welcome RoRo!
AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
Re: What to look for in August....
To continue the quote above (from a different source):
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/general/historicaloverview.html
.
To continue the quote above (from a different source):
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/general/historicaloverview.html
.
Laidback Al
Well-known member
Re: What to look for in August....
Welcome to FluTrackers, RoRo. Here is a number for you. Based on the tracking of deaths here at FluTrackers, I believe there are perhaps as many as 35 confirmed "pediatric" deaths (younger than 18) from H1N1 in the US.
List of Deaths in the USA of Children Younger than 18 Years Old (August 4, 2009)
Data Source: http://ft100.dabbledb.com/publish/flutrackersdatabaseforindividualah1n1cases
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Arizona
Age:
Age Range:
0-4
Case Description:
Arizona, no location given, 7th death in the state, unidentified person 0-4 years
old, reported 6/18/09 by AZ DHS
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=250700&postcount=136
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Arizona, Cuchino County
Age:
Age Range:
adolescent
Case Description:
Arizona, Cuchino County; adolescent boy reported 6/26/09 *underlying
conditions, hospitalized in Flagstaff, died week of 6/26, tested H1N1 positive
postmortem
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=112633
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Arizona, Pima County
Age:
10
Age Range:
Case Description:
Arizona, Pima County; 10 year old girl, died 5/17/09 reported 5/27/09 *pre-existing
medical condition
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=106829
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Arizona, Pima County, Tuscon
Age:
13
Age Range:
Case Description:
Arizona, Pima County, Tuscon; 13 year old boy, Johnny Ruiz Cotter died 5/15/09
reported 5/20/09 *severe medical conditions, cerebral palsy
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=105468
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Arizona, Pinal County
Age:
7
Age Range:
Case Description:
Arizona, Pinal County; 7 year old boy died week of 6/26 reported 6/30/09
*underlying health conditions, being treated in a local hospital at the time of his
death
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=113430
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
California, Contra Costa County, Concord
Age:
9
Age Range:
Case Description:
California, Contra Costa County, Concord 9 year old girl, Karen Perez died
5/29/09 reported 6/4/09 *secondary bacterial infection, previously healthy
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=108353
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Connecticut, Waterbury
Age:
6
Age Range:
Case Description:
Connecticut, Waterbury; 6 year old child, reported 6/11/09 *serious pulmonary
condition, out of school all year
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=109669
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Florida, Dade County
Age:
9
Age Range:
Case Description:
Dade County, 9 year old boy Luis Alexandro Munoz, died 6/9 reported 6/16,
hospitalized 6/8 within 24 hours of developing flu symptoms, and died the next
day, died 4 days after he was last in school, H1N1 confirmed 1 week postmortem
URL Links:
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Florida, Dade County
Age:
3
Age Range:
Case Description:
Florida DoH reported the death of a 3-yr-old girl from Dade County in their weekly
update 7/30/09 with no details.
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=274027&posted=1#post2740
27 - Post #2
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Florida, Palm Beach County, West Palm Beach
Age:
0
Age Range:
newborn
Case Description:
Florida, West Palm Beach; infant Parker Christine Opdyke died 7/18/09 reported
7/18/09 *mother Aubrey Opdyke, diagnosed with H1N1, in critical condition,
doctors placed her in a drug-induced coma to give the 26-week-old baby
maximum oxygen, baby was deliv
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=116511
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Illinois
Age:
18
Age Range:
Case Description:
Illinois, La Salle County; 18 year old woman reported 6/19/09 *unspecified
underlying conditions
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111398
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Illinois, Cook County, Oak Forest
Age:
8
Age Range:
Case Description:
Illinois, Cook County, 8 year old suburban Chicago boy Mark Dampier Jr.,
resident of Oak Forest, died 6/13/09 reported 6/17/09 *no known health
problems, became ill 6/11/09
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=110940
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Massachusetts, Worcester
Age:
13
Age Range:
Case Description:
Massachusetts, Worcester; 13 year old boy died 7/8/09 first reported 7/11/09
*serious underlying medical conditions that made him more susceptible to H1N1
complications, "persistent health problems", may have been living in a healthcare
facility outside t
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=115592
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Minnesota, Minneapolis
Age:
5
Age Range:
Case Description:
Minnesota, Minneapolis; 5 year old girl died week of 6/12/09, reported 6/15/09
*special-needs pre-K student, born with a genetic condition that left her medically
fragile with a suppressed immune system, required a tracheotomy until age 4,
flu caused resp
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=110491
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Minnesota, Twin Cities area
Age:
Age Range:
child
Case Description:
Minnesota, Twin Cities area; child reported 7/8/09 *extensive bacterial
co-infection
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=114813
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New Jersey, Ocean County, Jackson Township
Age:
6
Age Range:
Case Description:
New Jersey, Ocean County, Jackson Township; 6 year old boy Zachary Liam
Martinez, student at Lucy N. Holman Elementary, died 6/27/09 reported 7/1/09
*unspecified underlying medical conditions, hospitalized 6/25/09
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=113594
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New Jersey, Somerset County
Age:
15
Age Range:
Case Description:
New Jersey, Somerset County; 15 year old boy, died 6/8/09 reported 6/17/09
*died at home after developing symptoms that included fever, vomiting, coughing
and congestion, was last in school 6/5 with no symptoms, diagnosed H1N1
postmortem
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111000
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New Jersey, Sussex County, Morristown
Age:
10
Age Range:
Case Description:
New Jersey, Sussex County, Morristown; 10 year old boy died 6/18/09 reported
6/18/09 *unspecified underlying conditions, became ill 6/12, hospitalized 6/14 with
cough and fever, last in school 6/11 with no symptoms, H1N1 confirmed 6/18
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111218
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, Erie County, Buffalo
Age:
15
Age Range:
Case Description:
New York, Erie County, Buffalo; 15 year old boy Matthew Davis died 6/20/09
reported 6/20/09 *healthy, complained of a headache 6/12, conditioned worsened
over the weekend, hospitalized 6/15 given antibiotic and released, 6/16
vomiting/dizziness/leg condit
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111563
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, Erie County, Buffalo
Age:
9
Age Range:
Case Description:
New York, Erie County, Buffalo; 9 year old girl Maya Harden died 6/27/09 reported
6/27/09 *healthy with no severe health issues, went to ER with flu symptoms
6/12, diagnosed with pneumonia and sent home, hospitalized again 6/14 for an
overnight and sent h
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=112818
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, Nassau County
Age:
Age Range:
minor
Case Description:
New York, Nassau County; unidentified minor died 7/1/09 reported 7/7/09
*multiple underlying medical conditions, hospitalized 6/25 with fever and
respiratory symptoms
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=114637
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, NYC
Age:
Age Range:
under 2 years
Case Description:
New York, NYC; child under 2 years, reported 6/11/09 (Could be 16 month old
Jonathan Zamora Castillo)
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=109600
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, NYC, Bronx
Age:
0.21
Age Range:
11 weeks
Case Description:
New York, NYC Bronx; 11 week old child, Steven Montanez died 5/28/09 reported
6/1/09 *found unconscious at home
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=107746
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, NYC, Brooklyn
Age:
11
Age Range:
Case Description:
New York, NYC Brooklyn; 11 year old girl, Sarah Michel reported 6/11/09 *heart
defect
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=109600
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, Oneida County
Age:
Age Range:
adolescent
Case Description:
New York, Oneida County; adolescent reported 7/9/09 *asthma, being treated at
SUNY Upstate in Syracuse at the time of death
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=114951
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Oregon, Marion County
Age:
Age Range:
child younger than 5
Case Description:
Oregon, Marion County; child younger than 5 died 5/16/09 reported 6/23/09
*otherwise healthy, no underlying medical conditions, 2 days of fever, did not visit
a doctor or a hospital, died at home
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=112152
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Rhode Island, Kent County
Age:
Age Range:
teenager
Case Description:
Rhode Island, Kent County; teenage girl died 6/14/09 reported 6/17/09
*unspecified underlying conditions, special needs student at Meeting Street
School in Providence, showed no symptoms while in class, H1N1 confirmed
postmortem 6/17
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=110999
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Texas, Brownsville
Age:
1.9
Age Range:
23 months
Case Description:
Texas, Brownsville; Mexican resident Miguel Tejada Vazquez died 4/27/09 in a
Houston area hospital after visiting family in Brownsville. *medical conditions:
neonatal myasthenia gravis, heart defect, problems swallowing, chronic hypoxia
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=101354
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Texas, Fort Bend County
Age:
12
Age Range:
Case Description:
A 12-year-old girl from Fort Bend County reported 6/8/09 died May 26 at Texas
Children's Hospital. Officials say in addition to the flu, the girl had severe
underlying health problems.
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=108492
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Texas, Hidalgo County
Age:
13
Age Range:
Case Description:
Texas, Hidalgo County, teenage boy, died week of 6/12/09 reported 6/15/09 *no
underlying conditions
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=108492&page=3
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Utah, Salt Lake County
Age:
Age Range:
child between 5 and 18
Case Description:
Utah, Salt Lake County; unidentified child between 5 and 18 years old, reported
6/4/09 *"pretty severe underlying chronic condition" and respiratory problems,
hospitalized at Primary Children's Medical Center and died less than 24 hours
later
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=108381
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Washington, King County, Auburn
Age:
Age Range:
0-12
Case Description:
Washington, King County, Auburn; unidentified girl 0-12 years old, 2nd death in
King County, 7th death in state, died 7/18/09 reported 7/24/09 on WA DOH
website *underlying conditions, died while hospitalized
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=117656
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Wisconsin, Marathon County, Wassau
Age:
12
Age Range:
Case Description:
Wisconsin, Marathon County, Wassau; 12 year old girl Emily Eaton, died 6/17/09
reported 6/17/09 *episodic immune deficiencies since birth, mild autism,
hospitalized 6/11/09 with what appeared to be pneumonia, H1N1 rapid test was
negative, father says she
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=110987
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Wisconsin, Milwaukee
Age:
14
Age Range:
Case Description:
Wisconsin, Milwaukee, 14-year-old Tiara Mosely-Forrest, died 6/15/09 reported
6/16/09 *had no other medical conditions which could have led to death,
complete physical and blood tests in May reported her as healthy, complained of
chest pains in late May,
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=110780
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Wisconsin, Milwaukee
Age:
13
Age Range:
Case Description:
Wisconsin, Milwaukee; 13 year old girl Gisela Alanis died 7/12/09 reported
7/14/09 *asthma, described as "a common underlying condition", sick for more
than a month, admitted to hospital ER 5/27 semi-conscious and in respiratory
distress, later developed
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=115780
Welcome to FluTrackers, RoRo. Here is a number for you. Based on the tracking of deaths here at FluTrackers, I believe there are perhaps as many as 35 confirmed "pediatric" deaths (younger than 18) from H1N1 in the US.
List of Deaths in the USA of Children Younger than 18 Years Old (August 4, 2009)
Data Source: http://ft100.dabbledb.com/publish/flutrackersdatabaseforindividualah1n1cases
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Arizona
Age:
Age Range:
0-4
Case Description:
Arizona, no location given, 7th death in the state, unidentified person 0-4 years
old, reported 6/18/09 by AZ DHS
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=250700&postcount=136
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Arizona, Cuchino County
Age:
Age Range:
adolescent
Case Description:
Arizona, Cuchino County; adolescent boy reported 6/26/09 *underlying
conditions, hospitalized in Flagstaff, died week of 6/26, tested H1N1 positive
postmortem
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=112633
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Arizona, Pima County
Age:
10
Age Range:
Case Description:
Arizona, Pima County; 10 year old girl, died 5/17/09 reported 5/27/09 *pre-existing
medical condition
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=106829
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Arizona, Pima County, Tuscon
Age:
13
Age Range:
Case Description:
Arizona, Pima County, Tuscon; 13 year old boy, Johnny Ruiz Cotter died 5/15/09
reported 5/20/09 *severe medical conditions, cerebral palsy
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=105468
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Arizona, Pinal County
Age:
7
Age Range:
Case Description:
Arizona, Pinal County; 7 year old boy died week of 6/26 reported 6/30/09
*underlying health conditions, being treated in a local hospital at the time of his
death
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=113430
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
California, Contra Costa County, Concord
Age:
9
Age Range:
Case Description:
California, Contra Costa County, Concord 9 year old girl, Karen Perez died
5/29/09 reported 6/4/09 *secondary bacterial infection, previously healthy
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=108353
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Connecticut, Waterbury
Age:
6
Age Range:
Case Description:
Connecticut, Waterbury; 6 year old child, reported 6/11/09 *serious pulmonary
condition, out of school all year
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=109669
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Florida, Dade County
Age:
9
Age Range:
Case Description:
Dade County, 9 year old boy Luis Alexandro Munoz, died 6/9 reported 6/16,
hospitalized 6/8 within 24 hours of developing flu symptoms, and died the next
day, died 4 days after he was last in school, H1N1 confirmed 1 week postmortem
URL Links:
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Florida, Dade County
Age:
3
Age Range:
Case Description:
Florida DoH reported the death of a 3-yr-old girl from Dade County in their weekly
update 7/30/09 with no details.
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=274027&posted=1#post2740
27 - Post #2
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Florida, Palm Beach County, West Palm Beach
Age:
0
Age Range:
newborn
Case Description:
Florida, West Palm Beach; infant Parker Christine Opdyke died 7/18/09 reported
7/18/09 *mother Aubrey Opdyke, diagnosed with H1N1, in critical condition,
doctors placed her in a drug-induced coma to give the 26-week-old baby
maximum oxygen, baby was deliv
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=116511
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Illinois
Age:
18
Age Range:
Case Description:
Illinois, La Salle County; 18 year old woman reported 6/19/09 *unspecified
underlying conditions
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111398
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Illinois, Cook County, Oak Forest
Age:
8
Age Range:
Case Description:
Illinois, Cook County, 8 year old suburban Chicago boy Mark Dampier Jr.,
resident of Oak Forest, died 6/13/09 reported 6/17/09 *no known health
problems, became ill 6/11/09
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=110940
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Massachusetts, Worcester
Age:
13
Age Range:
Case Description:
Massachusetts, Worcester; 13 year old boy died 7/8/09 first reported 7/11/09
*serious underlying medical conditions that made him more susceptible to H1N1
complications, "persistent health problems", may have been living in a healthcare
facility outside t
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=115592
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Minnesota, Minneapolis
Age:
5
Age Range:
Case Description:
Minnesota, Minneapolis; 5 year old girl died week of 6/12/09, reported 6/15/09
*special-needs pre-K student, born with a genetic condition that left her medically
fragile with a suppressed immune system, required a tracheotomy until age 4,
flu caused resp
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=110491
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Minnesota, Twin Cities area
Age:
Age Range:
child
Case Description:
Minnesota, Twin Cities area; child reported 7/8/09 *extensive bacterial
co-infection
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=114813
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New Jersey, Ocean County, Jackson Township
Age:
6
Age Range:
Case Description:
New Jersey, Ocean County, Jackson Township; 6 year old boy Zachary Liam
Martinez, student at Lucy N. Holman Elementary, died 6/27/09 reported 7/1/09
*unspecified underlying medical conditions, hospitalized 6/25/09
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=113594
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New Jersey, Somerset County
Age:
15
Age Range:
Case Description:
New Jersey, Somerset County; 15 year old boy, died 6/8/09 reported 6/17/09
*died at home after developing symptoms that included fever, vomiting, coughing
and congestion, was last in school 6/5 with no symptoms, diagnosed H1N1
postmortem
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111000
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New Jersey, Sussex County, Morristown
Age:
10
Age Range:
Case Description:
New Jersey, Sussex County, Morristown; 10 year old boy died 6/18/09 reported
6/18/09 *unspecified underlying conditions, became ill 6/12, hospitalized 6/14 with
cough and fever, last in school 6/11 with no symptoms, H1N1 confirmed 6/18
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111218
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, Erie County, Buffalo
Age:
15
Age Range:
Case Description:
New York, Erie County, Buffalo; 15 year old boy Matthew Davis died 6/20/09
reported 6/20/09 *healthy, complained of a headache 6/12, conditioned worsened
over the weekend, hospitalized 6/15 given antibiotic and released, 6/16
vomiting/dizziness/leg condit
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111563
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, Erie County, Buffalo
Age:
9
Age Range:
Case Description:
New York, Erie County, Buffalo; 9 year old girl Maya Harden died 6/27/09 reported
6/27/09 *healthy with no severe health issues, went to ER with flu symptoms
6/12, diagnosed with pneumonia and sent home, hospitalized again 6/14 for an
overnight and sent h
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=112818
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, Nassau County
Age:
Age Range:
minor
Case Description:
New York, Nassau County; unidentified minor died 7/1/09 reported 7/7/09
*multiple underlying medical conditions, hospitalized 6/25 with fever and
respiratory symptoms
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=114637
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, NYC
Age:
Age Range:
under 2 years
Case Description:
New York, NYC; child under 2 years, reported 6/11/09 (Could be 16 month old
Jonathan Zamora Castillo)
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=109600
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, NYC, Bronx
Age:
0.21
Age Range:
11 weeks
Case Description:
New York, NYC Bronx; 11 week old child, Steven Montanez died 5/28/09 reported
6/1/09 *found unconscious at home
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=107746
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, NYC, Brooklyn
Age:
11
Age Range:
Case Description:
New York, NYC Brooklyn; 11 year old girl, Sarah Michel reported 6/11/09 *heart
defect
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=109600
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
New York, Oneida County
Age:
Age Range:
adolescent
Case Description:
New York, Oneida County; adolescent reported 7/9/09 *asthma, being treated at
SUNY Upstate in Syracuse at the time of death
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=114951
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Oregon, Marion County
Age:
Age Range:
child younger than 5
Case Description:
Oregon, Marion County; child younger than 5 died 5/16/09 reported 6/23/09
*otherwise healthy, no underlying medical conditions, 2 days of fever, did not visit
a doctor or a hospital, died at home
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=112152
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Rhode Island, Kent County
Age:
Age Range:
teenager
Case Description:
Rhode Island, Kent County; teenage girl died 6/14/09 reported 6/17/09
*unspecified underlying conditions, special needs student at Meeting Street
School in Providence, showed no symptoms while in class, H1N1 confirmed
postmortem 6/17
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=110999
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Texas, Brownsville
Age:
1.9
Age Range:
23 months
Case Description:
Texas, Brownsville; Mexican resident Miguel Tejada Vazquez died 4/27/09 in a
Houston area hospital after visiting family in Brownsville. *medical conditions:
neonatal myasthenia gravis, heart defect, problems swallowing, chronic hypoxia
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=101354
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Texas, Fort Bend County
Age:
12
Age Range:
Case Description:
A 12-year-old girl from Fort Bend County reported 6/8/09 died May 26 at Texas
Children's Hospital. Officials say in addition to the flu, the girl had severe
underlying health problems.
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=108492
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Texas, Hidalgo County
Age:
13
Age Range:
Case Description:
Texas, Hidalgo County, teenage boy, died week of 6/12/09 reported 6/15/09 *no
underlying conditions
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=108492&page=3
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Utah, Salt Lake County
Age:
Age Range:
child between 5 and 18
Case Description:
Utah, Salt Lake County; unidentified child between 5 and 18 years old, reported
6/4/09 *"pretty severe underlying chronic condition" and respiratory problems,
hospitalized at Primary Children's Medical Center and died less than 24 hours
later
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=108381
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Washington, King County, Auburn
Age:
Age Range:
0-12
Case Description:
Washington, King County, Auburn; unidentified girl 0-12 years old, 2nd death in
King County, 7th death in state, died 7/18/09 reported 7/24/09 on WA DOH
website *underlying conditions, died while hospitalized
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=117656
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Wisconsin, Marathon County, Wassau
Age:
12
Age Range:
Case Description:
Wisconsin, Marathon County, Wassau; 12 year old girl Emily Eaton, died 6/17/09
reported 6/17/09 *episodic immune deficiencies since birth, mild autism,
hospitalized 6/11/09 with what appeared to be pneumonia, H1N1 rapid test was
negative, father says she
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=110987
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Wisconsin, Milwaukee
Age:
14
Age Range:
Case Description:
Wisconsin, Milwaukee, 14-year-old Tiara Mosely-Forrest, died 6/15/09 reported
6/16/09 *had no other medical conditions which could have led to death,
complete physical and blood tests in May reported her as healthy, complained of
chest pains in late May,
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=110780
________________________________________________________________
State/Province (ADM1):
Wisconsin, Milwaukee
Age:
13
Age Range:
Case Description:
Wisconsin, Milwaukee; 13 year old girl Gisela Alanis died 7/12/09 reported
7/14/09 *asthma, described as "a common underlying condition", sick for more
than a month, admitted to hospital ER 5/27 semi-conscious and in respiratory
distress, later developed
URL Links:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=115780
Sally Furniss
Well-known member
Re: What to look for in August....
Welcome RoRo.
Welcome RoRo.
Ronan Kelly
Retired 2020
Re: What to look for in August....
Liam, Kiwibird, Windwalker, Florida1, AlaskaDenise, Laidback Al, Sally,
Thanks for the welcome!
In keeping with the thread title, using the table below (Data from Friday reports of WHO up to 7/3, and ECDC afterwards);
Date/Reported Deaths that week/Average per Day/Total Deaths
5/1 10 1.43 10
5/8 36 5.14 46
5/15 19 2.71 65
5/22 21 3.00 86
5/29 13 1.86 99
6/5 26 3.74 125
6/12 20 2.86 145
6/19 35 5.00 180
6/26 83 11.86 263
7/3 119 17.00 382
7/10 125 17.86 507
7/17 195 27.86 702
7/24 215 30.71 917
7/31 231 33.00 1,148
(nicer format in the attachment)
The average of reported deaths per day has doubled in July. If this trend were to continue, we can expect approximately 1,500 officially confirmed H1N1 fatalities in August.
RoRo
Liam, Kiwibird, Windwalker, Florida1, AlaskaDenise, Laidback Al, Sally,
Thanks for the welcome!
In keeping with the thread title, using the table below (Data from Friday reports of WHO up to 7/3, and ECDC afterwards);
Date/Reported Deaths that week/Average per Day/Total Deaths
5/1 10 1.43 10
5/8 36 5.14 46
5/15 19 2.71 65
5/22 21 3.00 86
5/29 13 1.86 99
6/5 26 3.74 125
6/12 20 2.86 145
6/19 35 5.00 180
6/26 83 11.86 263
7/3 119 17.00 382
7/10 125 17.86 507
7/17 195 27.86 702
7/24 215 30.71 917
7/31 231 33.00 1,148
(nicer format in the attachment)
The average of reported deaths per day has doubled in July. If this trend were to continue, we can expect approximately 1,500 officially confirmed H1N1 fatalities in August.
RoRo
FrenchieGirl
Senior Moderator
Re: What to look for in August....
Hi Roro, welcome. I've taken the liberty to post your link. Many thanks for your work
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padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135pt;" width="180" valign="top"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 95.4pt;" width="127" valign="top"> </td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99pt;" width="132" valign="top"> </td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 108pt;" width="144" valign="top"> </td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135pt;" width="180" valign="top"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; 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width: 95.4pt;" width="127" valign="top"> </td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 99pt;" width="132" valign="top"> </td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 108pt;" width="144" valign="top"> </td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext windowtext -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135pt;" width="180" valign="top"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Global Confirmed H1N1 Fatalities
WHO 5/1-7/3; ECDC 7/10-7/31
Hi Roro, welcome. I've taken the liberty to post your link. Many thanks for your work
<title>HTML clipboard</title><meta name="GENERATOR" content="Microsoft FrontPage 5.0"><meta name="ProgId" content="FrontPage.Editor.Document"><style> <!-- table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-parent:""; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"} p.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin-bottom:.0001pt; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; margin-left:0cm; margin-right:0cm; margin-top:0cm} p.MsoCaption {margin-bottom:.0001pt; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; font-weight:bold; margin-left:0cm; margin-right:0cm; margin-top:0cm} --> </style><table class="MsoNormalTable" style="border: medium none ; width: 437.4pt; border-collapse: collapse;" width="583" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 95.4pt;" width="127" valign="top">
Date
Reported Deaths that week
Average per Day
Total Deaths
5/1
10
1.43
10
5/8
36
5.14
46
5/15
19
2.71
65
5/22
21
3.00
86
5/29
13
1.86
99
6/5
26
3.74
125
6/12
20
2.86
145
6/19
35
5.00
180
6/26
83
11.86
263
7/3
119
17.00
382
7/10
125
17.86
507
7/17
195
27.86
702
7/24
215
30.71
917
7/31
231
33.00
1148
WHO 5/1-7/3; ECDC 7/10-7/31
Ronan Kelly
Retired 2020
Re: What to look for in August....
Thanks FrenchieGirl.
You may well be correct JimO. With the updates from Brazil and Argentina included, the ECDC logged 179 fatalities in the last 48 hours almost as many as died in the first 8 weeks of this crisis. Where's the media attention now?
It seems to me that a certain amount of complacency set in with the relatively low fatality figures from Australia. Death may follow six or more weeks after the initial infection giving rise to a false sense of security due to large numbers of infections versus an apparantly small number of fatalities. Taking Argentina as an example, The first recorded case (May 7th) preceded the first recorded death (June 15th) by six weeks. The large spike in Southern Hemisphere infections in late June and through July could result in a large spike in August fatalities.
RoRo
Thanks FrenchieGirl.
You may well be correct JimO. With the updates from Brazil and Argentina included, the ECDC logged 179 fatalities in the last 48 hours almost as many as died in the first 8 weeks of this crisis. Where's the media attention now?
It seems to me that a certain amount of complacency set in with the relatively low fatality figures from Australia. Death may follow six or more weeks after the initial infection giving rise to a false sense of security due to large numbers of infections versus an apparantly small number of fatalities. Taking Argentina as an example, The first recorded case (May 7th) preceded the first recorded death (June 15th) by six weeks. The large spike in Southern Hemisphere infections in late June and through July could result in a large spike in August fatalities.
RoRo
Re: What to look for in August....
Just in case anyone is interested...
It looks like we are going to have a moderate to strong El Nino this year.
Very similar to what happened in 1918 and 1957.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
Just in case anyone is interested...
It looks like we are going to have a moderate to strong El Nino this year.
Very similar to what happened in 1918 and 1957.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Re: What to look for in August....
I am seeing in a way a positive side to this news: less hurricanes to deal with. I can't imagine a mandatory evacuation in full pandemic.
I am seeing in a way a positive side to this news: less hurricanes to deal with. I can't imagine a mandatory evacuation in full pandemic.