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Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report? - possible reporting errors

alert

Senior Moderator
Hat-tip Missouriwatcher for the link. The latest update from the PA DOH contains the text:

http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=557490&mode=2

? A total of 70 influenza viruses have been confirmed by the state lab this season. This number includes, 37/53% influenza A (H3N2) viruses, 22/31% influenza A (H1N1) viruses, 7/10% influenza B and 4/6% untypeable influenza type A.

? In addittion to seasonal flu viruses that are currently circulating, 3 rare human infections with influenza viruses of swine origin have been detected in Pennsylvania. These viruses very rarely infect humans and have not been known to be transmissible from human to human in the past. However, this virus has been detected more frequently in the last six months and recent investigations in Iowa suggest that the virus may be transmissible from human to human. Individuals with influenza-like illnesses who have had exposure to swine, directly or indirectly, should let their physicians know as such illness may be from this rare virus. Further information on this can be found at http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6047a3.htm?s_cid=mm6047a3_w.


So what is going on here? Do the four unsubtypable detections represent trH3N2 cases (in which case is there one unreported case?)? Do they represent some other novel flu virus? Or are they an artifact of bad testing? Or are they still considering 2009 H1N1 as a novel virus? I tend to think of the three confirmed trH3N2 cases as occuring last summer (and thus not in this flu season)....


Update: There are graphs further down at the link that seems to be indicating several "novel influenza A" infections in weeks 9, 10, and 11. Any clue?
 
Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report?

Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report?

Those certainly can't be the same trH3N2 detections from last August/September; however, the narrative sounds similar to what was being reported after the Iowa and West Virginia H3N2v clusters. So, it's either a mistake or there is a new twist to this bizarre flu season. Hopefully the CDC will address these cases in a more timely manner than the previous H3N2v cases.
 
Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report?

Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report?

The following chart of hospitalizations from the link provided by alert shows hospitalizations from "Novel Influenza A Virus Infection" during Weeks 10 and 11. I'm assuming that pdm09H1N1 is no longer being considered a novel virus. The same nomenclature is used further down on the state's webpage in reference to hospitalizations and deaths from the 2010-11 season (see last two charts below). I think it is important to find out what PA means by "Novel Influenza A Virus Infection" in reference to data from this season and from last season.

PA Week 11 Hospitalizations.webp


Lab positive flu hospitalizations reported in Pennsylvania last season: 10/02/10-10/07/11 (n=1, 594)

PA 2010-11 Hospitalizations.webp


Lab positive flu deaths reported in Pennsylvania last season: 10/02/10-10/07/11 (n= 90)

PA 2010-11 Deaths.webp
 
Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report?

Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report?

:tiphat: Pathfinder

This thread from September 2011 provides a detailed discussion of Novel Influenza A viruses detected last summer from the PA Department of Health, and suggests that at least as of last September, PA was not using the phrase "Novel Influenza A" in reference to pdm09H1N1.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=172996
 
Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report?

Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report?

There are serious problems in that report. The line I picked out indicates a total of 70 confirmed flu cases this season (4 of which are reported as unsubtypable), but the graphs seem to indicate over 100 per week the past few weeks.

My reading of the last graph above indicates 9 fatalities associated with "Novel Influenza A" viruses in the 2010-2011 flu season, something I think we would have heard about by now.

Something is seriously wrong with this data. Could they be mislabelling the graphs?
 
Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report?

Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report?

Pennsylvania replaced their Week 11 hospitalization chart with this chart:

hosp11c.webp

They now show no Novel Influenza A Infections and apparently renamed these as pH1N1. Also, they added one pH1N1 (Week 10) and one influenza A (Week 11) to the totals on the chart.
 
Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report?

Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report?

Nice find. As the light blue bars in that chart are in the same place as the "Novel Influenza A" bars on the original chart, it seems the error was the legend on the graph. The "case count" chart is still the incorrect one that shows several novel detections, but I have to think that is some kind of error as well, as the total number of cases on the chart is 806, far higher than the summarized 70.

The new hospitalization graph above is still somewhat confusing (what is the difference between "A" and "unspecified A"?), but that seems like the least of the issues here.

Thank you for keeping on top of this.
 
Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report? - possible reporting errors

Hat-tip Missouriwatcher. This is the week 12 report:

http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=557490&mode=2

And the tables have been further corrected. The only table still showing novel influenza A infections is the hospitalizations table, which shows several dozen such hospitalizations in the 2010-11 season, and is likely still in error.
 
Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report? - possible reporting errors

Hat-tip Missouriwatcher.

From bad to worse; here is the latest PA report:

http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=557490&mode=2

Now we have in the graphs all kinds of novel influenza A cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, dating all the way back to 2010.

They seem to have really fouled things up this time.
 
Re: Why is Pennsylvania reporting several unsubtypable/novel influenza A detections in this week's report? - possible reporting errors

I posted this graph identifying the one unsubtypeable reported in Week 15. I still don't know what is going on, but this is the first unsubtypeable reported by PA since last fall. They already changed the charts a couple of times to redefine "Novel A Influenza". Perhaps it was another H3N2v sample and they didn't have the kits to determine the subtype.

PA Week 15 Isolates.webp
 
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