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Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections exceed 5000 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1023 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1023 in Japan

Hi, Commonground,

Thank you for your comment. Let me share with you my thought about age distribution of patients in Japan.

Yes. According to the current age distribution, 50% of all cases are in their teens. (See the above graph)

Percentage of teenagers is, however, declining these days and, in my opinion, will decline further until it reaches around 40%. Then, percentages of (1) less than 10 yo, (2) twenties and (3) the remaining age groups together will be all around 20%. The following is the reason.

Novel flu outbreaks started in Japan with big high-school outbreaks in Hyogo and Osaka in the middle of May. At that time almost all the patients were teenagers, high-school students. Consequently, age distribution by the end of May was like in the graph 1.

GRAPH 1
View attachment 3583

Since the end of May when the big high-school outbreaks subsided, school infections have started in a dozen of schools and sometimes spread to nearby schools but, in each case, measures were taken relatively quickly to prevent widespread infections. (Lessons learnt from Hyogo and Osaka)

In the meantime, travel-related infections, mainly from USA, especially from Hawaii, have been discovered in various parts of Japan but didn?t cause big outbreaks, except in Fukuoka where about 100 school infections were traced back to a patient from USA. In other cases of travel-related infections, patients other than teenagers are common as compared to school infections.

Recently, there are more clasters of patients in various parts of Japan for which no source of infection can be traced. Again, those patients are from various age groups.

The above trend of novel flu infections in Japan has been there for about one and half months and seems to continue in the future, maybe until the next influenza season starts in October. Thus, age distribution of patients in the future will look like the graph 2, showing age distribution of patients from the end of May until now.

GRAPH 2
View attachment 3584

_________________
SN1987A
 

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Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1023 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1023 in Japan

SuperNova1987A,

You have created a valuable record of the progression of the virus. Great analysis too!

Thanks for all of the hard work!
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1023 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1023 in Japan

3 Russian figure skaters found infected with A/H1N1 flu in Japan
www.chinaview.cn 2009-06-28 14:07:46

TOKYO, June 28 (Xinhua) -- Three Russian nationals visiting Japan's Kanazawa, in Ishikawa Prefecture, to take part in a figure skating show have been confirmed infected with the new stain of influenza, Kyodo News reported Sunday.

The three -- a woman in her 20s, and a man and woman in their 30s who are performers and show staff -- are in stable condition and resting at their hotel, the report said, adding that they require no hospitalization.

The city has asked eight other people taking part in the show who were in close contact with the three to refrain from going out or participating in the show, the local government said.

Popular Japanese skaters such as Shizuka Arakawa, a 2006 Turin Olympic gold medalist, Nobunari Oda and the 2007 world champion Miki Ando, are taking part in the show. But they are not among those who had been in close contact with the three, according to the report.

The organizers said the show will go on as scheduled but performers will refrain from coming close to members of the audience.
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1023 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1023 in Japan

Update of Novel Flu in Japan
June 28, 2009


Thank you, Farmer, for your kind words.
I am trying my best to keep up with the development of novel flu situation in Japan. However, changes in press releases from the government and shrinking news coverage in the media make my efforts even harder.

As I suspected, there were no updates of prefectural numbers during the weekend from the Ministry of Health. Infectious Disease Surveillance Center also did not update the data. I hope they will come back today (Monday). Otherwise, I may have to revise the daily report completely.

In the meantime, the followings are prefectural numbers for Saturday and Sunday which I personally calculated, thus, subject to later confirmation and corrections.

REVISED & CORRECTED (in blue)
20090627table.GIF
20090627age.GIF

REVISED & CORRECTED (in blue)
20090628table.GIF
20090628age.GIF

REVISED & CORRECTED
20090628all.GIF



_________________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1160 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1160 in Japan

Surveillance of all novel flu cases to stop in mid July: Ministry of Health
Source: http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/news/20090628-OYT1T00551.htm

The Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare disclosed yesterday that it would stop the current exhaustive surveillance of all novel flu cases by the middle of July.

Then, the surveillance will be performed with a random sampling method except for schools and work places where multiple cases should still be reported to the Ministry for early detection of group infections.

19:05 June 28, 2009



Visitors to Japan Decline by Third Due to Swine Flu, Kyodo Says
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=az1DRZWNw0Ro

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Visitors to Japan declined 34 percent in May from a year earlier because of swine flu and the global recession, Kyodo News reported, citing the Japan National Tourism Organization.

The number of visitors to Japan fell to 486,100, Kyodo said. Japanese traveling abroad fell by 18 percent to 1.03 million, the biggest decline since the SARS outbreak in August 2003, Kyodo reported late yesterday.

-snip-

To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Kitanaka in Tokyo akitanaka@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: June 24, 2009 23:18 EDT

________________________________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1160 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1160 in Japan

Update of Novel Flu in Japan
June 29, 2009

Hi, Kiwibird
Thank you for your attention. But I am just fine.
The reason for my belated update is the Ministry of Health's update, the source of information, is delayed and inconsistent these days. And I am really worried everyday if they would suddenly stop their daily report once and for all.

As I posted above, the MOH announced that they would discontinue the current surveillance of all confirmed cases by the middle of July. I cannot understand why they have to do so now that infections are widespread and increasing but not at an incontrollable rate. No official explanation is given so far.

Anyway, I will continue my daily update as long as I can.

The following is as of 11:00am June 29 2009.

REVISED & CORRECTED (in blue)
20090629table.GIF
Source: http://www.mhlw.go.jp/kinkyu/kenkou/influenza/houdou/2009/06/dl/infuh0629-02.pdf

REVISED
20090629all.GIF

EPI090629.gif

Source: http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/epi2009/090629epi.html
Note: Due to differences in cutting time, daily numbers and daily accumulated numbers may be different from other reports.

MAP090629.gif

Source:http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/2009map/090629map.html

20090629age.GIF


_________________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1207 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1207 in Japan

What to do if I am infected? Sumo wrestlers ask Association

Sumo wrestlers held a meeting Tuesday and decided to request the Sumo Asssociation to clarify what to do if they contract novel flu during a tournament.

The Association will discuss measures such as infected wrestlers shall be removed from the tournament.

sumo.webp
Very close contact

***********************************
Surely, wearing masks will not be a good idea in case of Sumo wrestlers.

Back in 1918, the Spanish flu hit many sumo wrestlers during the first wave. Because the flu was not very severe yet, it didn’t cause serious consequences but troubled a tournament. People called it “Sumo flu”.

_________________________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1207 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1207 in Japan

Update of Novel Flu in Japan
June 30, 2009

To my great relief, the Ministry of Health updated its novel flu web site after almost 2 days and finally posted data for June 30 and July 1.


The following chart and graphs are as of 11:00am June 30, 2009.

REVISED & CORRECTED (in blue)
20090630table.GIF
Source: Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare

REVISED & CORRECTED
20090630all.GIF
Note: Due to differences in cutting time, daily numbers and daily accumulated numbers may be different from other reports.

(onset)
EPI090630.gif

Source: Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/epi2009/090630epi.html

(map)
MAP090630.gif

Source: Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/2009map/090630map.html

20090630age.GIF


_____________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1207 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1207 in Japan

Update of Novel Flu in Japan
July 1, 2009

We are in the middle of the rainy season in Japan. The weather is warm sometimes hot and humid. Below is the weather data of Aichi prefecture where the number of daily confirmed cases are the highest for the past three days.

20090701aichi.GIF

However, novel flu is spreading at a daily pace of 70, similar to Hyogo and Osaka in May, showing no sign of subsiding.

The following chart and graphs are as of 11:00am July 1, 2009.

REVISED & CORRECTED (in blue)
20090701table.GIF
Source: Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare

REVISED & CORRECTED
20090701all.GIF
Note: Due to differences in cutting time, daily numbers and daily accumulated numbers may be different from other reports.

(onset)
EPI090701.gif

Source: Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/epi2009/090701epi.html

(map)
MAP090701.gif

Source: Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/2009map/090701map.html

20090701age.GIF


_____________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1347 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1347 in Japan

Update of Novel Flu in Japan
July 2, 2009

Confirmed cases jumped up on July 2 to a new highest daily count of 92.

The following chart and graphs are as of 11:00am July 2, 2009.

REVISED & CORRECTED (in blue)
20090702table.GIF
Source: Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare

REVISED & CORRECTED
20090702all.GIF
Note: Due to differences in cutting time, daily numbers and daily accumulated numbers may be different from other reports.

EPI090702.gif

Source: Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/epi2009/090702epi.html

MAP090702.gif

Source: Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/2009map/090702map.html

20090702age.GIF


_____________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1347 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1347 in Japan

Novel Flu, Domestic patients exceed 1500
16:01 July 2, 2009
Source: http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20090703-00000152-san-soci

The Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare announcend Friday that the cumulative total of novel flu patients has surpassed 1500. Infections have been confirmed 44 out of 47 prefectures, except Aomori, Yamagata and Fukui prefectures. No severe case has been reported.

According to WHO?s report of July 1st, 8 countries, such as USA and Mexico, had more than 1500 patients. A Ministry?s official stated ?Countries in the northern hemisphere still have a cerntain number of new patients as is the same situation in Japan.?

The Ministry previously revised its operational policy for domestic measures and decided to shift its surveillance from watching each individual case for confirmation of infection to watching group infections only by the middle of this month. The revised policy has been explained to section managers of prefectures and major cities in a conference held in the end of June.

**********************
It took 26 days (from May 16 to June 11) to reach the first 500.
It took 15 days (from June 11 to June 26) to reach the second 500 or 1000 in total.
It took only 7 days (from June 26 to July 3) to reach the third 500 or 1500 in total.
How many days it will take to exceed 2000?
If nobody does, I have to call "Epidemic!".

___________________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections exceed 1500 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections exceed 1500 in Japan

Update of Novel Flu in Japan
July 3, 2009

The following chart and graphs are as of 11:00am July 3, 2009.

REVISED & CORRECTED (in blue)
20090703table.GIF
Source: Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare

REVISED & CORRECTED
20090703all.GIF
Note: Due to differences in cutting time, daily numbers and daily accumulated numbers may be different from other reports.

20090703onset.GIF


(map)
MAP090703.gif

Source: Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/2009map/090703map.html

20090703age.GIF
*********************************************
Ministry of Health: HP update stopped
2009/07/02 18:57
Source: http://www.cabrain.net/news/article.do?newsId=22945&freeWordSave=1

Ministry’s HP update has stopped since June 29. According to the department of statistics and information that is in charge of the update, transition of update works from old contractor to a new contractor did not work out well. However, the department did not inform the relevant departments of the trouble.
–Snip –
The person in charge stated “The full recovery is still unclear. However, they will give top priority to novel flu related information and press releases.”
******************************************************
So, this is the reason why I had to await for almost 2 days.
I hope everything is alright from now on.
But there may be no update during the weekend anyway...
_____________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections exceed 1500 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections exceed 1500 in Japan

Thanks SuperNova. 50% of all cases are in their teens. I believe our age range for the U.S. is in their 30's? Not sure.
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections exceed 1500 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections exceed 1500 in Japan

Hi, Commonground,

Thank you for your comment. Let me share with you my thought about age distribution of patients in Japan.

Yes. According to the current age distribution, 50% of all cases are in their teens. (See the above graph)

Percentage of teenagers is, however, declining these days and, in my opinion, will decline further until it reaches around 40%. Then, percentages of (1) less than 10 yo, (2) twenties and (3) the remaining age groups together will be all around 20%. The following is the reason.

Novel flu outbreaks started in Japan with big high-school outbreaks in Hyogo and Osaka in the middle of May. At that time almost all the patients were teenagers, high-school students. Consequently, age distribution by the end of May was like in the graph 1.

GRAPH 1
20090530age.GIF

Since the end of May when the big high-school outbreaks subsided, school infections have started in a dozen of schools and sometimes spread to nearby schools but, in each case, measures were taken relatively quickly to prevent widespread infections. (Lessons learnt from Hyogo and Osaka)

In the meantime, travel-related infections, mainly from USA, especially from Hawaii, have been discovered in various parts of Japan but didn’t cause big outbreaks, except in Fukuoka where about 100 school infections were traced back to a patient from USA. In other cases of travel-related infections, patients other than teenagers are common as compared to school infections.

Recently, there are more clasters of patients in various parts of Japan for which no source of infection can be traced. Again, those patients are from various age groups.

The above trend of novel flu infections in Japan has been there for about one and half months and seems to continue in the future, maybe until the next influenza season starts in October. Thus, age distribution of patients in the future will look like the graph 2, showing age distribution of patients from the end of May until now.

GRAPH 2
200905310703.GIF

_________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections exceed 1500 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections exceed 1500 in Japan

Well, that was a great synopsis. I agree, you are right on the money. Thanks! We are so lucky to have you! :)
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections exceed 1500 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections exceed 1500 in Japan

Update of Novel Flu in Japan
July 4 & 5, 2009

Novel flu in Japan seems to be back in full force and is repidly increasing.


REVISED & CORRECTED
20090705all.GIF
Note: Due to differences in cutting time, daily numbers and daily accumulated numbers may be different from other reports.

The following is as of 6:00am July 4 and July 5, 2009.
Note: Because no official figures for prefectural data is released during the weekend, the following tables and charts are subject to future revision.

REVISED & CORRECTED (in blue)
20090704table.GIF
Source: Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare

REVISED & CORRECTED (in blue)
20090705table.GIF
Source: Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare


20090704age.GIF 20090705age.GIF



_____________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1708 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1708 in Japan

Update of Novel Flu in Japan
July 6, 2009

The following table and charts are as of 11:00am July 6, 2009.

REVISED & CORRECTED (in blue)
20090706table.GIF
Source: Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare

REVISED & CORRECTED
20090706all.GIF
Note: Due to differences in cutting time, daily numbers and daily accumulated numbers may be different from other reports.


EPI090706.gif

Source: Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/epi2009/090706epi.html


MAP090706.gif

Source: Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/2009map/090706map.html

20090706age.GIF


_____________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1708 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1708 in Japan

Update of Novel Flu in Japan
July 7, 2009

Confirmed cases are still increasing sharply.
Osaka seems to be a center of new cases again.
What an ironic coincidence with that mess over the Tamiflu-resistance cover-up.

The following table and charts are as of 11:00am July 7, 2009.

REVISED & CORRECTED (in blue)
20090707table.GIF
Source: Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare

REVISED & CORRECTED
20090707all.GIF
Note: Due to differences in cutting time, daily numbers and daily accumulated numbers may be different from other reports.

EPI090707.gif

Source: Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/epi2009/090707epi.html

MAP090707.gif

Source: Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/2009map/090707map.html

View attachment 3617

************************************
Tonight is Tanabata star festival in Japan.

A legend says: two lovers in the night sky, Weaving Princess (Vega) and Cow Herder (Altair), who are separated by the Heavenly God to different sides of the Heavenly River (Milky way), are allowed to meet only once a year, in the night of July 7, crossing the River with a help of Magpie (Cygne).
People make wishes upon the Stars tonight and their wishes come true?

May nobody in the world lose his or her loved one because of flu!


_____________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1863 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections reach 1863 in Japan

Novel Flu patients exceed 2000
23:15 July 7, 2009
Source: http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/feature/20090425-436828/news/20090707-OYT1T00969.htm

The cumulative total of novel flu patients has surpassed 2000 on July 7 since the first patient was confirmed on May 9.

As of 10:30PM, the number reached 2033 cases in 46 prefectures except Yamagata prefecture.
The first patient in Aomori was found today along with new patients in Kanagawa and Chiba prefectures.

**********************
It took 26 days (from May 16 to June 11) to reach the first 500.
It took 15 days (from June 11 to June 26) to reach the second 500 or 1000 in total.
It took only 7 days (from June 26 to July 3) to reach the third 500 or 1500 in total.
It took only 4 days (from July 3 to July 7) to reach the fourth 500 or 2000 in total.
How many days it will take to exceed 2500?
Maybe in 2 days?
I have to call out again: "Epidemic!"
___________________________
SN1987A
 
Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections exceed 2000 in Japan

Re: Aso calls for calm response as new flu infections exceed 2000 in Japan

Update of Novel Flu in Japan
July 8, 2009

146 new cases, the highest daily increase ever.
Osaka prefecture keeps the top and Tokyo area prefectures follow closely behind.

The following table and charts are as of 11:00am July 8, 2009.
However, the total number is less than 2033, the number reported by Yomiuri shinbun as of 1030pm July 7 (see previous post), meaning the Ministry of Health is slow in summing up the figures reported by prefectures and municipalities.

20090708table.GIF
Source: Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare

20090708all.GIF
Note: Due to differences in cutting time, daily numbers and daily accumulated numbers may be different from other reports.

(onset)
EPI090708.gif

Source: Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/epi2009/090708epi.html

(map)
MAP090708.gif

Source: Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza/2009map/090708map.html

20090708age.GIF
****************
I found the confirmed cases at Narita airport were not correctly reported in my updates from June 27. Corrected tables and charts will be posted shortly.
_____________________
SN1987A
 
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