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India Influenza 2015: 2,990 confirmed fatalities

[h=1]Swine flu kills 12 more people in India[/h] [h=1][/h] Swine flu: One of the deadly virus Swine Flu, which took India by storm this year killing more than 2000 people so far. The number of deaths so far reported is reached upto 2,160. This has become a every year phenomenon, the virus was first reported in India in the year 2010, but this number of deaths have crossed maximum deaths comparing to previous year.
Union health ministry gave a statement that, till Tuesday, a total of 2,160 lives have been lost to the disease while the number of affected persons has climbed to 34,920.

http://www.whatlauderdale.com/national-news/swine-flu/9972/
 
[h=1]6 More Swine Flu Deaths, Toll Touches 2,159[/h] NEW DELHI: Swine flu claimed the lives of six more persons as the death toll rose to 2,159 while the number of those affected by the disease across the country breached the 35,000-mark.
According to the Union Health Ministry, 2,159 persons had perished due to the disease till yesterday while the number of persons affected by it stood at 35,007.
In the worst-hit state of Gujarat, the death toll stood at 439 while 6,561 people have been affected by the H1N1 virus since January.
In Rajasthan, the toll has reached 429 while the number of affected persons climbed to 6,671.
Twelve people have died of swine flu in Delhi, which has seen 4,255 cases of the disease.
Swine flu fatalities in Maharashtra stood at 441 while, in Madhya Pradesh, the toll was 315 with 4,848 and 2,257 persons having been affected by the disease, respectively, in the two states.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nat...ll-Touches-2159/2015/04/09/article2756015.ece
 
[h=1]Swine flu in India: 35,077 people affected by the H1N1 virus, death toll reaches 2,167[/h] With the total number of people affected from swine flu crossing the 35,000 mark across the entire nation, Swine flu is still bothering the country. According to the reports by the Union Health Ministry, the deadly H1N1 virus has claimed eight more lives in the capital city taking the death toll to 2, 167. Read about Swine flu ? causes, symptoms, diagnosis, treatment and prevention.
With the current figures, 20 people have died of the disease in Delhi which has seen 4,260 cases this year. The number of people affected from swine flu in India has reached a massive number of 35, 077.
Gujarat was one of the worse-hit states by swine flu with the overall death toll reaching 438 and around 6,555 people being affected by the disease this year. Although people succumbing to this virus in Rajasthan were 428, research claimed that most cases had a ?high risk factor? ? they were suffering from chronic diseases like lung disease, heart disease, TB and diabetes. Read about the swine flu signs and symptoms you should be aware of.
Whereas, death toll climbed to 23 and 78 in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana respectively and the number of deaths due to swine flu and related complications in Maharashtra reached the 435 mark. In Madhya Pradesh, around 312 people died from Swine flu whereas the H1N1 virus killed 85 people and affected 2,889 in Karnataka.
Cases of Swine flu in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal were reported to be 56, 53, 41 and 26 respectively. Here are 15 precautions every Indian should take to prevent swine flu.

http://www.thehealthsite.com/news/s...ed-by-the-h1n1-virus-death-toll-reaches-2167/
 
58 newly reported fatalities this week. Overall media reported H1N1 fatalities this year occurred at a historically high rate, much higher than in the corresponding periods in 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011 and 2010. The last was during the second pandemic wave. In 2013, the outbreak peaked in the second & third week of February. Both the most recent GISRS data and a graph of media reported deaths show that the outbreak peaked in early March this year. Of course since India lacks a comprehensive surveillance and reporting program, we are left with only media reports. Media reported H1N1 fatalities to date are listed below. Other types of influenza do not get reported. Worth bearing in mind that a study from 2012 estimated that, during the 2009-10 pandemic, confirmed fatalities in India represented only 2-3 % of total H1N1 fatalities. Thus these confirmed H1N1 fatalities could represent between 67,000 and 98,000 actual H1N1 related deaths, which in turn suggests millions of H1N1 cases this year. In addition, of course, there are other flu strains in circulation that we have little or no information about. Media reporting has suggested that testing for other flu strains is not occurring to any great extent even in fatal cases that do not test positive for H1N1. Multiple reports indicate that many confirmed deaths are not being included in the official tally. (Here and here for example). An MIT paper published recently suggested that mutations in the H1N1 virus noted in 2014 may be behind the elevated outbreak this year. This was immediately denied by the India National Institute of Virology. The presence of the mutations outlined by the MIT team has been largely confirmed by independent analysis and reportedly by the CDC.

The data suggests something unusual about this year's flu season in India. Two possibilities present themselves; a) Indian flu surveillance has progressed this year to the state that it was better able to detect & confirm H1N1 cases leading to greater case & fatality figures or b) India truly had an epic influenza season this year. I do not have the explanation. A WHO spokesman said that there was nothing unusual in this year's season, but the sheer number of cases reported by the Indian MOH&FW and by GISRS suggests otherwise. I would be delighted if knowledgeable sources were able to shed light on this. Looking at the historic GISRS data below, one can see that the spring wave is often followed by a comparably sized monsoon wave later in the year. Answers to what is happening and why may help India's preparation for the fall, perhaps with targeted vaccination of at risk groups etc.

Demographic data released by Maharashtra on 404 fatal cases shows that H1N1 continues to disproportionately affect young and middle-aged adults.

Click on any State for a more detailed thread.

Maharashtra: 445
Gujarat: 439
Rajasthan: 430
Madhya Pradesh: 316
Karnataka: 85
Telangana: 79
Punjab: 56
Haryana: 55
Uttar Pradesh: 45
West Bengal: 26
Chhattisgarh: 25
Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh: 24 each
Andhra Pradesh: 23
Jammu & Kashmir: 20
Delhi: 19
Kerala: 18
Uttarakhand: 13
Chandigarh: 9
Odisha: 8
Assam: 5
Jharkhand: 4
Puducherry and Goa: 3 each
Bihar: 2
Manipur: 1

Total: 2,177

Latest GISRS surveillance data is shown below. There can be a lag of several weeks in this data.
GISRS.webp

http://gamapserver.who.int/gareports...spx?ReportNo=1
India Fatalities by Week.webp


Comparison to figures from previous years:
2014: 10 fatalities reported to April 7th
2013: 570 fatalities reported to April 13th.
2012: 59 fatalities to April 14th.
2011: 44 fatalities to July 31st.
2010: 504 fatalities to April 10th

Historical GISRS data GISRS 2.webp

http://gamapserver.who.int/gareports...spx?ReportNo=7
 
Swine flu claims 5 more lives, toll rises to 2,172 Updated: Saturday, April 11, 2015, 22:29 [IST]

New Delhi, Apr 11: Swine flu claimed lives of five more persons as the death toll climbed to 2,172 in the country while the number of persons affected by the H1N1 virus breached the 35,000-mark. According to the Union Health Ministry, 2,172 persons have perished due to the disease till yesterday while the number of persons affected across various states was 35,138.
...
Read more at: http://www.oneindia.com/india/swine...45.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
 
29 newly reported fatalities this week, mostly from Maharashtra, as activity continues to decline. Overall media reported H1N1 fatalities this year occurred at a historically high rate, much higher than in the corresponding periods in 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011 and 2010. The last was during the second pandemic wave. In 2013, the outbreak peaked in the second & third week of February. The outbreak peaked in early March this year. Of course since India lacks a comprehensive surveillance and reporting program, we are left with mainly media reports. Media reported H1N1 fatalities to date are listed below. Other types of influenza do not get reported. Worth bearing in mind that a study from 2012 estimated that, during the 2009-10 pandemic, confirmed fatalities in India represented only 2-3 % of total H1N1 fatalities. Thus these confirmed H1N1 fatalities could represent between 68,000 and 99,000 actual H1N1 related deaths, which in turn suggests millions of H1N1 cases this year. In addition, of course, there are other flu strains in circulation that we have little or no information about. Media reporting has suggested that testing for other flu strains is not occurring to any great extent even in fatal cases that do not test positive for H1N1. Multiple reports indicate that many confirmed deaths are not being included in the official tally. (Here and here for example). An MIT paper published recently suggested that mutations in the H1N1 virus noted in 2014 may be behind the elevated outbreak this year. This was immediately denied by the India National Institute of Virology. The presence of the mutations outlined by the MIT team has been largely confirmed by independent analysis and reportedly by the CDC.

The data suggests something unusual about this year's flu season in India. Two possibilities present themselves; a) Indian flu surveillance has progressed this year to the state that it was better able to detect & confirm H1N1 cases leading to greater case & fatality figures or b) India truly had an epic influenza season this year. I do not have the explanation. A WHO spokesman said that there was nothing unusual in this year's season, but the sheer number of cases reported by the Indian MOH&FW and by GISRS suggests otherwise. I would be delighted if knowledgeable sources were able to shed light on this. Looking at the historic GISRS data below, one can see that the spring wave is often followed by a comparably sized monsoon wave later in the year. Answers to what is happening and why may help India's preparation for the fall, perhaps with targeted vaccination of at risk groups etc.

Demographic data released by Maharashtra on 404 fatal cases shows that H1N1 continues to disproportionately affect young and middle-aged adults.

Click on any State for a more detailed thread.

Maharashtra: 470
Gujarat: 439
Rajasthan: 432
Madhya Pradesh: 316
Karnataka: 85
Telangana: 79
Punjab: 56
Haryana: 55
Uttar Pradesh: 46
West Bengal: 26
Tamil Nadu and Chhattisgarh: 25 each
Himachal Pradesh: 24
Andhra Pradesh: 23
Jammu & Kashmir: 20
Delhi: 19
Kerala: 18
Uttarakhand: 13
Chandigarh: 9
Odisha: 8
Assam: 5
Jharkhand: 4
Puducherry and Goa: 3 each
Bihar: 2
Manipur: 1

Total: 2,206

Latest GISRS surveillance data is shown below. There can be a lag of several weeks in this data.
GISRS.webp
http://gamapserver.who.int/gareports/Default.aspx?ReportNo=1


India Fatalities by Week.webp

Comparison to figures from previous years:

2014: 35 fatalities reported to May 11th
2013: 582 fatalities reported to April 20th.
2012: 59 fatalities to April 14th.
2011: 44 fatalities to July 31st.
2010: 514 fatalities to April 19th

Historical GISRS data:

GISRS 2.webp
http://gamapserver.who.int/gareports/Default.aspx?ReportNo=7
 
[h=1]Swine flu claims 2,335 lives[/h] New Delhi: Swine flu has claimed the lives of 2,335 people across the country till April 21 and although World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared the pandemic to be over, it has said that the virus would continue to circulate as seasonal influenza, Government told the Rajya Sabha said.




"While declaring the pandemic to be over, WHO conveyed that the pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus would continue to circulate as seasonal influenza virus causing sporadic cases and outbreaks of various intensities," Health Minister J P Nadda said.
He said that from July 2014 to April 21, 2015, there have been 2,335 deaths of laboratory confirmed cases of Influenza A (H1N1).

...

http://zeenews.india.com/news/health/health-news/swine-flu-claims-2335-lives_1586659.html
 
Why the sudden shift in time frame?? Baffles me.

For anyone keeping track, 118 fatal cases were reported last year from July 1 to Dec 31 for a total of 216 confirmed H1N1 deaths in 2014. This suggests that the latest official figure for deaths this year is 2,217 to April 21. My current tally is 2,230 deaths in 2015.
 
Swine flu: how well did India respond?
BMJ 2015; 350 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.h2286 (Published 29 April 2015)
Cite this as: BMJ 2015;350:h2286

Access to the full version of this article requires a subscription

Jeetha D?Silva, journalist, Mumbai, India
j.dsilva@gmail.com

Some media reports criticised the response, suggesting the recent outbreak of swine flu had led to panic. Jeetha D?Silva reports on India?s increasing preparedness and where more needs to be done to reduce morbidity and mortality

The current outbreak of swine influenza A H1N1 virus sweeping across India is one of the worst flu outbreaks the country has seen in recent years, with over 35 000 people infected1 and 2335 deaths from 1 January to 21 April.2 In the last major outbreak, which followed the global flu pandemic of 2009, India saw 47 840 cases and 2744 deaths during May 2009 to December 2010.3

In the current outbreak, although rapid transmission is a worry, it is the high mortality that has been most alarming. In Jaipur, where the infection broke out in late December, swine flu caused three deaths in the first week of January.4 At the last count, the state had had 429 deaths from swine flu, with 6671 people infected. Rajasthan?s neighbouring state, Gujarat, has had 6561 cases of swine flu since January and a death toll of 439.1

Dinkar Raval, deputy director of epidemics, Gujarat, told The BMJ that the high death rate of 6.63% was ?baffling and worrisome.? In comparison, global mortality during the 2009 flu pandemic was 1 in 5000 (0.02% of those infected).5

Improvements over 2009
Despite the high incidence and mortality, health system officials claim that the health ministries at central and state levels have been building competency to deal with influenza outbreaks since the 2009-10 epidemic. Pradip Awate, state surveillance officer for Maharashtra?s integrated disease surveillance programme, told The BMJ, ?Between 2009 and now, we have improved our diagnostic facilities and treatment facilities.? Since the previous outbreak, ?

http://www.pubfacts.com/detail/25925535/Swine-flu-how-well-did-India-respond
 
Government fears swine flu cases may shoot up once again in August-September
TNN | May 10, 2015, 04.42 AM IST

MUMBAI: There has been a big increase in the number of Indians taking anti-flu vaccines. The WHO-recommended trivalent influenza vaccine contains two antigens from H1N1 and H3N[2] and Influenza B strains. "It remains to be seen if the vaccine will protect against the mutated strain that we believe was responsible for the increased virulence of the H1N1 virus between January and March," said a doctor from a south Mumbai hospital.
...
Doctors say the second half of 2015 is going to be crucial. The Union government expects a resurgence in swine flu cases in the August-September period, and committees set up in each state to work out public health strategies against outbreaks.
...
Flu season peaks twice in India?once post monsoon and another during winter. "So an ideal time to take the vaccine would be either May-June or October-November. The trivalent vaccine is ideal for H1N1 and H3N2. The latter was predominantly circulating in November last year till H1N1 took over in December-January," said virologist Dr Abhay Chaudhary, who is also the director of Haffkine Research Institute.
...
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...-in-August-September/articleshow/47219084.cms
 
Comment: My current tally is 2,251 fatalities - Ro

2,232 swine flu deaths till Apr 26: Govt
Last Updated: Wednesday, May 6, 2015 - 00:28


New Delhi: Influenza H1N1 virus, which caused the Swine flu pandemic in 2009-10, continues to circulate in various parts of the country, the government today said.


Health Minister J P Nadda while replying to a question in Rajya Sabha said that since January 1 this year till April 26, 2232 persons have died due to the disease while 35,687 people have been affected by it.

"Influenza A H1N1 virus that cause the influenza pandemic during 2009-10 continues to circulate in the community causing outbreaks in various parts of the country," Nadda said.
...
http://zeenews.india.com/news/health...t_1590575.html
 
66 newly reported fatalities since April 18th, mostly from Maharashtra, as activity continues to decline. Overall media reported H1N1 fatalities this year occurred at a historically high rate, much higher than in the corresponding periods in 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011 and 2010. The last was during the second pandemic wave. In 2013, the outbreak peaked in the second & third week of February. The outbreak peaked in early March this year. Of course since India lacks a comprehensive surveillance and reporting program, we are left with mainly media reports. Media reported H1N1 fatalities to date are listed below. Other types of influenza do not get reported. Worth bearing in mind that a study from 2012 estimated that, during the 2009-10 pandemic, confirmed fatalities in India represented only 2-3 % of total H1N1 fatalities. Thus these confirmed H1N1 fatalities could represent between 70,000 and 100,000 actual H1N1 related deaths, which in turn suggests millions of H1N1 cases this year. In addition, of course, there are other flu strains in circulation that we have little or no information about. Media reporting has suggested that testing for other flu strains is not occurring to any great extent even in fatal cases that do not test positive for H1N1. Multiple reports indicate that many confirmed deaths are not being included in the official tally. (Here and here for example). An MIT paper published recently suggested that mutations in the H1N1 virus noted in 2014 may be behind the elevated outbreak this year. This was immediately denied by the India National Institute of Virology. The presence of the mutations outlined by the MIT team has been largely confirmed by independent analysis and reportedly by the CDC.

The data suggests something unusual about this year's flu season in India. Two possibilities present themselves; a) Indian flu surveillance has progressed this year to the state that it was better able to detect & confirm H1N1 cases leading to greater case & fatality figures or b) India truly had an epic influenza season this year. I do not have the explanation. A WHO spokesman said that there was nothing unusual in this year's season, but the sheer number of cases reported by the Indian MOH&FW and by GISRS suggests otherwise. I would be delighted if knowledgeable sources were able to shed light on this. Looking at the historic GISRS data below, one can see that the spring wave is often followed by a comparably sized monsoon wave later in the year. Answers to what is happening and why may help India's preparation for the fall, perhaps with targeted vaccination of at risk groups etc.

Demographic data released by Maharashtra on 404 fatal cases shows that H1N1 continues to disproportionately affect young and middle-aged adults.

Click on any State for a more detailed thread.

Maharashtra: 523
Gujarat: 439
Rajasthan: 433
Madhya Pradesh: 318
Karnataka: 85
Telangana: 79
Punjab: 56
Haryana: 55
Uttar Pradesh: 46
West Bengal and Chhattisgarh: 27 each
Tamil Nadu: 25
Himachal Pradesh: 24
Andhra Pradesh and Kerala: 23 each
Jammu & Kashmir: 20
Delhi: 19
Uttarakhand: 13
Odisha: 10
Chandigarh: 9
Assam: 5
Jharkhand: 4
Puducherry and Goa: 3 each
Bihar: 2
Manipur: 1

Total: 2,272

Latest GISRS surveillance data is shown below. There can be a lag of several weeks in this data. GISRS.webp

http://gamapserver.who.int/gareports...spx?ReportNo=1
India.webp



Comparison to figures from previous years:
2014: 98 fatalities reported to June 30th
2013: 622 fatalities reported to June 16th.
2012: 102 fatalities to July 9th.
2011: 44 fatalities to July 31st.
2010: 560 fatalities to May 27th

Historical GISRS data GISRS 2.webp

http://gamapserver.who.int/gareports...spx?ReportNo=7
 
Last edited:
Comment: h/t tetano. Note that the author makes no reference to increased or improved surveillance and testing as a reason for increased confirmations this year. - Ro
J Glob Infect Dis. 2015 Apr-Jun; 7(2): 56?59.
doi: 10.4103/0974-777X.157236

PMCID: PMC4448325



[h=1]2015 Resurgence of Influenza A (H1N1) 09: Smoldering Pandemic in India?[/h] Baijayantimala Mishra

Author information ► Copyright and License information ►




Influenza pandemic is commonly believed to sustain for a year or two. But history tells a different story describing several waves over multiple years causing high morbidity and mortality every time,[1,2] meaning thereby, resurgence due to pandemic influenza virus is rather a norm than exception, even after the pandemic is over.
The latest influenza pandemic due to Influenza A (H1N1) 09 (pdm H1N1) began in May 2009, spread to all over the world and became global by July 11 2009. On 10th August 2010, the pandemic was declared to be an end with more than 18,449 deaths reported worldwide by end of the month.[3,4]
In India the first positive case of pdm H1N1 was reported in May 2009 and by end of the year 2010, 20604 cases with 1763 deaths were reported.[5] The country experienced three waves during the period of pandemic of 2009-2010, first one in 2009 September, followed by second wave in December, and the third peak in August 2010 when the end of pandemic was declared.
[h=3]Circulation of Influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 during post pandemic years[/h] Immediately after the emergence of pdm H1N1 in May 2009, the strain largely replaced the circulating seasonal Inf A (H1N1) and Inf A (H3N2) viruses. From 2010 onwards, the pandemic strain pdm H1N1 virus continued to circulate in India, but, along with the previously circulating influenza viruses; InfA (H3N2) and InfB, replacing completely the seasonal Inf A (H1N1). Circulation of these three influenza viruses continued with seasonal activity till resurgence of pdmH1N1 was observed in several Indian states in 2012-2013 winter months.[6,7]

[h=3]Post pandemic resurgence[/h] After 2010, pdm H1N1 reappeared in several northern and western states of the country during the winter months of 2012-2013. The presently ongoing resurgence since December 2014 however appears to be worse than the previous one, leading to over 30,000 cases and 2000 deaths countrywide (as of 28th March,2015) as compared to 5044 cases and 405 deaths in 2012[5] and 5250 cases and 692 deaths in 2013.[8] The resurgent waves lead to more number of hospitalizations and deaths due to pdmH1N1 as compared to the rest part of the year and appear at an interval of 1.5-2 years.
The present article has focused on the plausible reasons of resurgence of pdm H1N1 in India.

[h=3]Role of environmental temperature[/h] Occurrence of both the resurgent waves in India during the winter months indicates the possible role of lower ambient temperature. Temperate regions of both northern and southern hemisphere demonstrate a synchronized seasonal influenza peak during their winter months. Whereas a year round activity is observed in tropical and sub-tropical regions with annual or bi-annual peak in different countries. India being a vast country with diverse climate demonstrates two seasonal activities, one during monsoon months which are observed in most part of the country with tropical climate and other in winter period which is observed in the temperate region of extreme northern part of the country.[9,10,11]
Decrease ambient temperature has frequently been associated with the influenza seasonality. Ability of the viral particle for prolonged survival in colder temperature is also considered to play an important role.[12] In addition to this, overcrowding during winter acts as a co-contributing factor in facilitating the spread of the virus. It also has been proposed that decrease in environmental temperature increases the physiological stress and energy loss due to thermal regulation, which in turn weakens the immune system and thereby increases the susceptibility of the host to infection.[12]

[h=3]Host immunity[/h] Pandemic occurs with the emergence of a new virus which can affect severely the na?ve population and spread worldwide. Immunity to the new virus is acquired either from exposure to infection or due to vaccination. Decrease rate of infection and severity is expected during the subsequent years due to building up of specific immunity against the new viral strain. Waning of host immunity has often been attributed as one of the possible cause of resurfacing of the influenza virus.[10] Increased seroprevalence rate reported during the post pandemic years reflects the exposure to infection and vaccine coverage.[13]
Increased vaccine coverage leading to high level of seropositivity before the influenza season has been shown to be correlated with decrease influenza activity.[14] The rate of seroprevalence has often been found to be age stratified due to different rate of exposure in different age groups. This in turn reflects the age-group wise susceptibility for the coming season. Sero-epidemiologic study is in fact considered as the most reliable method for estimation of influenza attack rate, disease severity and population-level immunity and should be considered as one of the important parameter for vaccination policies.[15] Seroprevalence in different age groups and from different parts of the country is essential for formulation of appropriate influenza vaccination policy. The centers under influenza surveillance network of Govt. of India are presently not engaged in sero-epidemiological study. The data on sero-prevalence from different regions representing east, west, north and south of country would have helped for a good vaccination policy.

[h=3]Viral evolution[/h] Influenza A virus is known for its high rate of mutation in hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) antigenic epitopes. The rate of mutation has been estimated as 6.7 ? 10-3 nucleotide substitution per site per year for HA. These mutations have the capability to prevent the binding of existing antibody against HA and NA with the virus, resulting in rapid turnover of mutant viral strains.[12] The new pandemic virus pdm H1N1 has remained genetically stable since its emergence in 2009.[16] However, the possibility of emergence of drift virus cannot be ruled out as the cause of present resurgence at this stage. Severe second pandemic season due to drift in neuraminidase antigen has been reported previously.[17]
In a viral genomic study on Indian isolates circulating during the period of 2009-2012, selection pressure analysis has shown 18 positively selected sites in major surface proteins of Inf H1N1 which are important for attachment, assembly and release of virus. Therefore, substitutions at these sites can play important role in making these isolates more transmissible.[16] Studies on genetic characterization of the pdm H1N1 strain responsible for current resurgence will reveal the role of drift virus if any.
The emergence of a new pandemic influenza virus is expected to affect the na?ve population with more severity worldwide. However, smoldering pattern has been reported with previous pandemics in several countries of Asia and Europe including England, characterized by a more severe second pandemic session as compared to the first one.[17] The latest pandemic virus Inf A (H1N1) pdm 09 also has shown a more severe pattern in year 2010-2011 than the pandemic year 2009 in some of the European countries including England.[2] Until the resurgence of current epidemic, a lesser or similar degree of disease severity was however observed in major parts of the world including India.[2,18]
In contrast, the death toll in a span of three months during the current resurgence has already crossed the number of deaths occurred during the first 6 months of pandemic year in 2009 (>2000 Vs 981) which included two of the three pandemic waves. The high mortality of the current epidemic is of grave concern and necessitates a thorough dissection in order to avert such severe resurgence in future. Detailed epidemiological studies can only answer the real smoldering pattern of the current wave.
The detection of D222G mutation in HA gene of Indian isolates by Mullick et al., is a cause of concern.[19] These mutant strains have the capability of binding to both a2-3/a2-6- sialic acid linkage and thus can lead to more severe disease.[20] The absence of D222G mutant strain in other Indian studies indicates it's minor contribution towards the burden of severe disease.[21] The role of D222G strain in current resurgence however cannot be commented at this stage.

[h=3]Role of vaccination[/h] Herd immunity plays an important role in constraining the subsequent waves of pandemic. Several countries had adapted the strategy of mass vaccination for pandemic Inf A H1N1 2009 across the age groups which has resulted in high seropositivity and in turn lower rate of infection during the subsequent pandemic wave.[13,14,22]
No definite evidence exists so far, regarding the critical level of herd immunity required for population protection, however the same has been proposed as 33% based on a mathematical model assuming equal population mixing and susceptibility.[23]
In India vaccine for pdm H1N1 virus became available since September 2010. In the initial phase, there was a vaccination drive by Govt. of India when the vaccine was offered to the health care workers in most of the states, public awareness and education was created through media. However, with passage of time the vaccination campaign became slower and virtually stopped. Even after the resurgence of pdm 09 during 2012-13, neither any major vaccination drive was held nor annual influenza vaccination was implemented. CDC had released a ?Flu vaccination pledge for 2014-2015? [24] and on February 26th 2015 Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) has recommended for annual influenza vaccination for everyone above 6 months of age for the year 2015-2016.[25] Annual flu vaccination as recommended by CDC could possibly have restricted the severity of this resurgent wave.
As reported by Mytton et al.,[2] lack of vaccination drive for children, public awareness and education as contributing factors for severe second session of pandemic in England, the role of similar components for present resurgence in India cannot be ruled out.

[h=3]Action taken by Govt. of India[/h] During the current resurgence, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, restarted the process of public awareness and education through various modes of mass media to prevent transmission. Due to the lack of information regarding actual disease burden of influenza and its impact on all high risk groups, evidence based vaccination for all high risk groups was not possible for Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW, GOI). Vaccination was only recommended for health care workers and staff who have the possibility of coming contact with influenza patients, laboratory personnel who are involved with influenza testing and members of ?Rapid response team? who carryout investigation of influenza outbreak.[26]


[h=2]CONCLUSION[/h] The present resurgence of pandemic virus cannot be attributed to any single factor at this stage. The prolong cold and dry weather, possibility of drift virus, absence of annual flu vaccination could have played an integrated role in resurfacing of pandemic virus. The role of sero-epidemiology should be given its due importance for vaccination policy along with the molecular surveillance of the influenza virus circulating strains which is already ongoing in India through an established influenza surveillance network. Vaccination campaign, public awareness and education measures should continue in an optimum mode, even during the inter resurgence interval period, balancing the necessity vis-a-vis public panic. Lastly, considering the ecology, epidemiology, molecular biology of the pandemic virus, a modeling system should be developed to predict such resurgence in future and building up of herd immunity against all the circulating influenza viruses along with pdm H1N1 is essential to fight the battle with the virus.

[h=2]Footnotes[/h]
Source of Support: Nil.


Conflict of Interest: None declared.



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Articles from Journal of Global Infectious Diseases are provided here courtesy of Medknow Publications
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4448325/
 
Dynamics of Influenza Seasonality at Sub-Regional Levels in India and Implications for Vaccination Timing
  • Mandeep S. Chadha ,
  • Varsha A. Potdar,
  • Siddhartha Saha,
  • Parvaiz A. Koul,
  • Shobha Broor,
  • Lalit Dar,
  • Mamta Chawla-Sarkar,
  • Dipankar Biswas,
  • Palani Gunasekaran,
  • Asha Mary Abraham,
  • Sunanda Shrikhande,
  • Amita Jain,
  • Balakrishnan Anukumar,
  • Renu B. Lal,
  • Akhilesh C. Mishra
Dynamics of Influenza Seasonality at Sub-Regional Levels in India and Implications for Vaccination Timing
  • Mandeep S. Chadha,
  • Varsha A. Potdar,
  • Siddhartha Saha,
  • Parvaiz A. Koul,
  • Shobha Broor,
  • Lalit Dar,
  • Mamta Chawla-Sarkar, …
logo.plos.95.png
x​
  • Published: May 4, 2015
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0124122
Abstract

Background

Influenza surveillance is an important tool to identify emerging/reemerging strains, and defining seasonality. We describe the distinct patterns of circulating strains of the virus in different areas in India from 2009 to 2013.
Methods

Patients in ten cities presenting with influenza like illness in out-patient departments of dispensaries/hospitals and hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory infections were enrolled. Nasopharangeal swabs were tested for influenza viruses by real-time RT-PCR, and subtyping; antigenic and genetic analysis were carried out using standard assays.
Results

Of the 44,127 ILI/SARI cases, 6,193 (14.0%) were positive for influenza virus. Peaks of influenza were observed during July-September coinciding with monsoon in cities Delhi and Lucknow (north), Pune (west), Allaphuza (southwest), Nagpur (central), Kolkata (east) and Dibrugarh (northeast), whereas Chennai and Vellore (southeast) revealed peaks in October-November, coinciding with the monsoon months in these cities. In Srinagar (Northern most city at 34?N latitude) influenza circulation peaked in January-March in winter months. The patterns of circulating strains varied over the years: whereas A/H1N1pdm09 and type B co-circulated in 2009 and 2010, H3N2 was the predominant circulating strain in 2011, followed by circulation of A/H1N1pdm09 and influenza B in 2012 and return of A/H3N2 in 2013. Antigenic analysis revealed that most circulating viruses were close to vaccine selected viral strains.
Conclusions

Our data shows that India, though physically located in northern hemisphere, has distinct seasonality that might be related to latitude and environmental factors. While cities with temperate seasonality will benefit from vaccination in September-October, cities with peaks in the monsoon season in July-September will benefit from vaccination in April-May. Continued surveillance is critical to understand regional differences in influenza seasonality at regional and sub-regional level, especially in countries with large latitude span.

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Citation: Chadha MS, Potdar VA, Saha S, Koul PA, Broor S, Dar L, et al. (2015) Dynamics of Influenza Seasonality at Sub-Regional Levels in India and Implications for Vaccination Timing. PLoS ONE 10(5): e0124122. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0124122
Received: November 17, 2014; Accepted: February 26, 2015; Published: May 4, 2015
This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication
Data Availability: All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.
Funding: This study was funded by Department of Health and Human Services-Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (DHHS-CDC) Cooperative agreement number 1U51000333 and Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

full paper at; http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0124122
 
Vidarbha Journal of Internal Medicine < Volume 19 < July 2015
Influenza H1N1 - Revisited
Chand D A
1Associate Professor, Medicine,
Govt. Medical College, Nagpur
Address for Correspondence -
Dr. Deepti Chand
E-mail : dachand@gmail.com

Deadly 1918 influenza pandemic was the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus. It
infected 500 million people across the world in three waves and killed 50 to 100 million of them, making
it one of the deadliest natural disasters in human history. In April 2009, human infection with a new
strain of this virus was confirmed in Mexico and within weeks, the infection had spread to other parts
of the world. Hardest hit regions were Southeast Asia and Africa. World Health Organization (WHO)
declared this new strain of swine-origin H1N1 as a pandemic. Later on August 10, 2010, the WHO
declared the H1N1 influenza pandemic over, stating that worldwide flu activity had returned to typical
seasonal patterns. In the ensuing years since the 2009-10 pandemic, both case and death burden had
remained fairly stable and manageable . However in India we witnessed the resurgence of H1N1
influenza in the first quarter of 2015 with the worst kind of infection and fatalities.

In India the H1N1 virus had killed 981 people in 2009 and 1763 in 2010. The mortality decreased in
2011 to 75. It claimed 405 lives in 2012 and 699 lives in 2013. In 2014, a total of 218 people died from the
H1N1 flu. As on 15th April 2015, the number of people affected in India has been over 35,077 and a
death toll of 2167 in the first three and half months of 2015 itself . The worst affected States have been
Gujarat and Rajasthan. Maharashtra had 4075 positive cases with 478 deaths till 20th April?15. 594
cases were positive in Nagpur region with case fatality of 120. In the original article published in
this issue of VJIM, Government Medical College, Nagpur witnessed 156 admissions of H1N1 positive
patients, all in Category C of which 86 were direct admissions and 70 were referred patients after
admissions outside. Patients presenting after 5 days of symptom onset had a mortality of 43% as
compared to 27% in those presenting within 5 days of symptom onset. Young and economically
productive age group has been the most affected.
Of the referred patients the mean duration of
hospitalization outside was 2.05 days in Survivors as compared to 3.98 days in Non-Survivors (p=HS).
The mortality observed in direct admissions was 24% as compared to 45% in referred patients.
66.66% of patients affected had co-morbid conditions like diabetes, hypertension, IHD, obesity
and pregnancy . So a high mortality rate was observed even in patients who reported early in the
disease course.
...
http://vjim.org/pdf/vol19/influenza-h1n1-revisited.pdf
 
66 Die Due to Swine Flu in June-July: Health Minister JP Nadda
By PTI Published: 07th August 2015 02:47 PM Last Updated: 07th August 2015 02:48 PM

NEW DELHI: As many as 66 people have lost their lives due to swine flu (Influenza-A H1NI) in the last two months, which was more than the toll during the same period last year, Lok Sabha was informed today.

Health Minister J P Nadda said the June-July period also saw 740 swine flu cases being detected across the country.
...
http://www.newindianexpress.com/nat...nister-JP-Nadda/2015/08/07/article2962426.ece

Comment: This figure closely agrees with what has been published in the Indian Media. I have tracked 68 fatalities since May 27th. The current national confirmed fatality toll for 2015 is around 2,348. Approximately 60 of the 66 deaths were reported from the States of Maharashtra and Kerala. - Ro
 
Cases of H1N1 are being reported from Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh & Goa. Flu B is also circulating according to reports from Maharashtra although official numbers are not being released. Media reported H1N1 fatalities to date are listed below. Other types of influenza do not get reported. Worth bearing in mind that a study from 2012 estimated that, during the 2009-10 pandemic, confirmed fatalities in India represented only 2-3 % of total H1N1 fatalities. Thus these confirmed H1N1 fatalities could represent between 75,000 and 110,000 actual H1N1 related deaths this year.

Click on any State for a more detailed thread.

Maharashtra: 623
Gujarat: 448
Rajasthan: 435
Madhya Pradesh: 320
Karnataka: 91
Telangana: 79
Punjab: 56
Haryana and Kerala: 55 each
Uttar Pradesh: 46
Tamil Nadu: 29
West Bengal and Chhattisgarh: 27 each
Himachal Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh: 24 each
Jammu & Kashmir: 20
Delhi: 19
Uttarakhand: 13
Odisha: 10
Chandigarh and Goa: 9 each
Assam: 5
Jharkhand: 4
Puducherry: 3
Bihar: 2
Manipur: 1

Total: 2,434

Latest GISRS surveillance data is shown below. There can be a lag of several weeks in this data.

GISRS.webp
http://gamapserver.who.int/gareports/Default.aspx?ReportNo=1
 
Comparison to figures from previous years:
2014: 151 fatalities reported to October 13th
2013: 653 fatalities reported to August 25th.
2012: 151 fatalities to August 25th.
2011: 59 fatalities to July 31st.
2010: 1,068 fatalities to August 29th
 
Swine flu hits Maharashtra hard, 661 dead
Umesh Isalkar,TNN | Sep 10, 2015, 06.24 AM IST
...

"The country has reported 2,276 swine flu deaths between January 1 and August 31. Of them, as many as 1,830 deaths were collectively reported from Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Maharashtra has reported the highest number of swine flu cases and deaths because of contagion in the country," said a senior official of the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) under the Union health ministry.
...
More worrying is the healthy profile of the patients who succumbed to swine flu. Around 36% of the people who died of the contagion were healthy and had no other associated illness. Majority of the victims - 85% - were in the age group of 21 to 60 years. During the pandemic phase of swine flu, the state had registered 60.74% of H1N1 casualties in this productive age group.
...
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=TOIIndiaNews

The state figures quoted agree strongly with those reported in Post 97 above, but differ by about 150 on the national total. Sometimes IDSP does not count patients who tested positive in private hospitals. - Ro
 
This record setting influenza season is continuing in India with 82 deaths being reported in the past 13 days. Cases of H1N1 are being reported this week from Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh & Telangana. Flu B is also circulating according to reports from Maharashtra although official numbers are not being released. Media reported H1N1 fatalities to date are listed below. Other types of influenza do not get reported. Worth bearing in mind that a study from 2012 estimated that, during the 2009-10 pandemic, confirmed fatalities in India represented only 2-3 % of total H1N1 fatalities. Thus these confirmed H1N1 fatalities could represent between 78,000 and 113,000 actual H1N1 related deaths this year. Think this figure is impossibly high? Go read this story where it is being discovered that official Dengue deaths in Delhi are being undercounted by a factor of 42: 1.

Click on any State for a more detailed thread.

Maharashtra: 674
Gujarat: 456
Rajasthan: 442
Madhya Pradesh: 323
Karnataka: 91
Telangana: 81
Kerala: 64
Punjab: 56
Haryana: 55
Uttar Pradesh: 46
Tamil Nadu: 29
West Bengal and Chhattisgarh: 27 each
Andhra Pradesh: 26
Himachal Pradesh: 24
Jammu & Kashmir: 20
Delhi: 19
Uttarakhand: 13
Odisha: 10
Chandigarh and Goa: 9 each
Assam: 5
Jharkhand: 4
Puducherry: 3
Bihar: 2
Manipur: 1

Total: 2,516

Latest GISRS surveillance data is shown below. There can be a lag of several weeks in this data.
GISRS.webp

Historical Context:

GISRS 2.webp
http://gamapserver.who.int/gareports/Default.aspx?ReportNo=7

Comparison to figures from previous years:
2014: 151 fatalities reported to October 13th
2013: 653 fatalities reported to August 25th.
2012: 173 fatalities to September 10th.
2011: 59 fatalities to July 31st.
2010: 1,274 fatalities to September 12th
2009: 176 deaths June - September 12th
 
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