• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

I saw this interesting tidbit in today's PROMED dispatch:

Swine influenza and the UK
- --------------------------
I haven't been able to read every single ProMED-mail report covering
the new "swine" influenza outbreak but it is possible that the
reports have missed an important point concerning the UK and the rest
of Northern Europe.

I apologise if you or someone have already pointed it out, but for
the time being at least, we should have a breathing space in the
sense that influenza virus epidemics don't normally occur in Northern
Europe during the late spring and summer period.

So it would have to be totally outside precedent if this virus caused
significant infections at this time of the year in the UK.

- --
Professor EA Gould
CEH Oxford
Mansfield Road
Oxford OX1 3SR
United Kingdom
<eag@ceh.ac.uk>

[Analysis of previous pandemics show that transmission in the
Northern hemisphere stops in the beginning of May. The best analysis
I have found is this paper: Viboud et al. JID 2005;192:233-48.

Even if the present A/H1N1 has pandemic potential it is therefore
highly likely that the outbreak will fade out within the next 2 to 3
weeks, but it will reappear in the autumn.

As pointed out in an earlier posting, the second wave can be more
pathogenic than the first wave, and inclusion of the present virus in
the vaccine for the autumn therefore should have the highest priority
(I am sure it does). - Mod.EP]

EP according to the PROMED info page, is ESKILD PETERSEN, Specialist of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases, Aarhus University Hospital, Skejby, Aarhus, Denmark.
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

I keep hearing this...

And I think it is because everyone is modeling off of 1918.

The problem with 1918 is that the virus couldn't travel very far very quickly....

Now, it is already around the world and in areas where they are just entering there flu season.

So to say that it will "fade out" in a couple weeks, disregards that the virus is entering prime time in the southern hemisphere (NZ, Australia, Brazil, etc...)


I am sorry, but I am just having a hard time buying it...I might be wrong but it just seems the dynamics are much different this time around.
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

I keep hearing this...

And I think it is because everyone is modeling off of 1918.

The problem with 1918 is that the virus couldn't travel very far very quickly....

Now, it is already around the world and in areas where they are just entering there flu season.

So to say that it will "fade out" in a couple weeks, disregards that the virus is entering prime time in the southern hemisphere (NZ, Australia, Brazil, etc...)


I am sorry, but I am just having a hard time buying it...I might be wrong but it just seems the dynamics are much different this time around.

Nope. This guy is basing his assertion off of his experience -- and the article he quoted is based primarily off of the Hong Kong flu.
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

Nope. This guy is basing his assertion off of his experience -- and the article he quoted is based primarily off of the Hong Kong flu.

<B>
Conclusion. </B>​
We found a consistent pattern of mortality being delayed until the second pandemic season of
A/H3N2 circulation in Europe and Asia. We hypothesize that this phenomenon may be explained by higher preexisting
neuraminidase immunity (from the A/H2N2 era) in Europe and Asia than in North America, combined

with a subsequent drift in the neuraminidase antigen during 1969/1970.
Do the same conditions exist today with the new H1N1 virus?
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

I keep hearing this...

And I think it is because everyone is modeling off of 1918.

The problem with 1918 is that the virus couldn't travel very far very quickly....

Now, it is already around the world and in areas where they are just entering there flu season.

So to say that it will "fade out" in a couple weeks, disregards that the virus is entering prime time in the southern hemisphere (NZ, Australia, Brazil, etc...)


I am sorry, but I am just having a hard time buying it...I might be wrong but it just seems the dynamics are much different this time around.

I concur with you on this. We cant use he 1918 model or that of the Hong Kong flu, as we are living in such a different world today. Places are so interconnected now due to advances in transportation such that any previous models or experiences just can not be used. Im not saying it wont die out or come back, im just saying the basis for his argument is flawed.

The flu can spread around the world in a week. Where back in those pandemics such a thing took a much greater amount of time.
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

I concur with you on this. We cant use he 1918 model or that of the Hong Kong flu, as we are living in such a different world today. Places are so interconnected now due to advances in transportation such that any previous models or experiences just can not be used. Im not saying it wont die out or come back, im just saying the basis for his argument is flawed.

The flu can spread around the world in a week. Where back in those pandemics such a thing took a much greater amount of time.

True, but on the other hand, the transport of troops around the world during the 1918 pandemic definitely contributed to spread. Troops spread it among themselves in the trenches, then brought it home with them.
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

"highly likely" ?
I haven't read the paper but that's not very credible IMO.

The virus spreads in Mex (which is northern hemisphere)
in April. May,June,July are not much hotter in Mex,
although humidity may rise.

it's derived from 1918-H1N1 in 3segments, which did spread in
Northern summer.
Earlier pandemics did also spread in summer, e.g. the
bad 1680 pandemic
(although some people recently suggested that was whooping cough, not flu)
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

True, but on the other hand, the transport of troops around the world during the 1918 pandemic definitely contributed to spread. Troops spread it among themselves in the trenches, then brought it home with them.

Yea but that compares nothing to global travel today. Along with increases in population, growth of major cities, etc.
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

It is important to look at the history of prior pandemics.... specifically the 1918-1920 H1N1 (Spanish Flu), the 1957-1958 H2N2 (Asian Flu), and the 1968-1969 H3N2 (Hong Kong Flu) initial outbreaks, and how they affected the northern and southern hemisphere at various times of the year.

Initially, all three pandemics started out primarily with minor or mild cases (or appeared to be typical seasonal cases), with a few unexplained clusters, pockets, or communities with well above baseline incidences of atypical pneumonia resulting in death.

In all three previous pandemics, these atypical pneumonia cases were the first indication that a novel virus was spreading in the wild. All three pandemics were associated with waves of outbreak.

To try and explain away (exclude) the history of previous viral evolution and pandemic action is irresponsible unless there is a scientific or historical reason to do so.

To add, hypothesize, and confirm alternate theories is admirable, but right now all we have is history and day-to-day expanding knowledge of how things change and our increased knowledge about what H1N1 and other viruses have been capable of in the past.

Spanish Flu - 20 to 50 million dead.
Asian Flu - 1 to 1.5 million dead.
Hong Kong Flu - .75 to 1 million dead.

A potential pandemic outbreak is nothing to overlook.... especially if it looks like a duck... and quacks like a duck.... more than likely, it is a duck. Sorry for the pun.

Exceptionally mild (as initially evidenced outside of Mexico), rapid spreading novel viruses with pockets (clusters or communities) of increased significant morbidity and mortality need to be watched and monitored closely. History repeats.

Better to be safe than sorry.
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

Presumptive Summer Influenza on an Australian/NZ cruise ship here:
http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-cdi2403-pdf-cnt.htm/$FILE/cdi2403a.pdf

Another at: http://www.epi.alaska.gov/bulletins/docs/b1999_09.htm

Influenza A among Summer Tourists in Alaska - 1999

The influenza season has, until recently, been confined to October through mid-May in North America. During the summer of 1998, an outbreak of influenza A/Sydney/5/97 (H3N2)-like virus occurred among travelers to Alaska. Between May 1 and August 22, 1998, 766 cases of influenza-like illness or ILI (fever or feverishness with cough or sore throat) were identified, with 71 cases of radiographically confirmed pneumonia and 50 hospitalizations. In addition, two deaths occurred that might have been related to this outbreak.1 Some evidence suggested that transmission was occurring during overland tours, although cruise ship transmission was also documented. The outbreak, a one-time anomaly at the time, occurred during the peak travel season when 60,000-70,000 travelers arrived weekly in Alaska.

In early June 1999, we began to receive reports of ILI among travelers to Alaska. As of June 29, CDC received reports of 428 cases of acute respiratory infection (ARI) among tourists to Alaska and the Yukon. Among 386 cases whose dates of illness onset are known from 10,110 passengers with a 7-day travel itinerary, the ARI incidence was 3.8 percent.

Cases A and B: On June 3, 1999, the infection control practitioner at Ketchikan General Hospital reported a 55-year-old traveler who was hospitalized with bronchopneumonia. She had arrived in Anchorage on May 25 to begin a land-based tour with her husband. They traveled by train to Denali and Fairbanks, flew to Anchorage, and then boarded a ship in Seward for Vancouver, BC. Case A developed fever, malaise and cough on May 28, just before boarding the ship. Her husband, Case B, developed the same symptoms 2 days later. Case B had a positive rapid influenza A antigen-detection test and both were started on rimantadine. Although her husband quickly improved, Case A developed worsening cough and required hospitalization. Neither had received the 1998-99 influenza vaccine. Influenza cultures taken on June 3 were negative.

Cases C and D: On June 14, 1999, an Anchorage physician reported two travelers, ages 64 and 65, with positive rapid influenza A antigen-detection tests. Both were hospitalized on June 8 in Anchorage. These individuals, husband and wife, began their trip on May 29 with a cruise from Vancouver, BC to Skagway. They then traveled through the Yukon Territory to Fairbanks, and took the train to Denali and Anchorage. They were preparing to fly home when both developed fever and severe cough. Neither had received the 1998-99 influenza vaccine.

Case E: On June 15, 1999, the infection control practitioner at Ketchikan General Hospital reported three cruise ship passengers were hospitalized with pneumonia. A respiratory specimen from one individual was positive for influenza A by rapid antigen testing and culture. Case E, an 80-year-old man, arrived in Anchorage on June 6, and traveled by train to Denali and Fairbanks. He continued to Whitehorse by bus, to Skagway by train, and boarded a southbound cruise ship on June 13. He developed fever, malaise, cough and nausea the following day. Case E received influenza vaccine in the fall of 1998.

Case F: On June 18, 1999, the Public Health Laboratory-Fairbanks reported a positive influenza A culture from a 64-year-old traveler seen at Healy Clinic on June 11. Case F began a cruise northbound from Vancouver on May 31. She arrived in Seward on June 7, and traveled to Anchorage on June 9 where she developed headache, myalgias, feverishness and cough. She took the train to Denali and sought health care at the Healy Clinic. Treatment included azithromycin and amantadine. She rapidly improved and completed her itinerary in Fairbanks on June 12. She had received an influenza immunization in October 1998.

Discussion: To date, influenza has occurred in travelers who have been present in Alaska or the Yukon Territory at least 2 days before onset. The incubation period for influenza A is 1-3 days, suggesting that transmission is occurring in Alaska, and in one case, the Yukon Territory.

Four isolates have been identified as influenza A/Sydney/5/97 (H3N2)-like virus. This strain was included in the 1998-99 influenza vaccine and will in the 1999-2000 vaccine. Currently no influenza vaccine is available in the United States.

Alaska 1998-99 influenza season: The last known influenza A isolate for the 1998-99 season in Alaska was reported on April 10, 1999. During late April, sporadic influenza B was seen and the last isolate detected on May 4, 1999.2


Sentinel sites: To identify influenza activity among Alaska summer visitors, nine health care facilities are participating as sentinel surveillance sites.

Providence Alaska Medical Center, Anchorage
Alaska Regional Hospital, Anchorage
Providence Seward Medical Center
Healy Clinic
Fairbanks Memorial Hospital
Valdez Community Hospital
Skagway Medical Clinic
Bartlett Regional Hospital, Juneau
Ketchikan General Hospital
Influenza culture materials are available from the Public Health Laboratories in Fairbanks (907-474-7017) and Anchorage (907-274-1602). Influenza cultures are free of charge.

Recommendations:

Consider the diagnosis of influenza in visitors to Alaska presenting with fever or feverishness and cough or sore throat.

When possible, collect nasopharyngeal or throat swabs for influenza culture or rapid antigen testing within 48 hours of symptom onset. Specimens from a few individuals in a group of travelers with similar symptoms will be diagnostic for all.

Consider treatment with amantadine or rimantadine for Alaska travelers who present with influenza-like illness, regardless of vaccine history. These agents are effective in reducing both the duration of illness and viral shedding when initiated within 48 hours of symptom onset.
Other sources of information:
CDC. Preventing influenza infection among travelers at http://www.cdc.gov/travel/feb99.htm.

CDC. Questions and answers about preventing influenza infection among travelers at http://www.cdc.gov/travel/qa22-3.htm.

CDC. Outbreak of influenza A infection among travelers - Alaska and the Yukon Territory, May-June 1999. MMWR 1999;48:545.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
References:
1. CDC. Update: outbreak of influenza A infection - Alaska and the Yukon Territory, July-August 1998. MMWR 1998;47:685.

2. Alaska Influenza Surveillance Report at http://www.epi.hss.state.ak.us
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

Recent research has indicated that flu dislikes humidity and prefers it cold and dry for optimal transmission, and it is these environmental factors that may lie behind its seasonality. I suspect that there is more to it than this.

Much will depend on the specific temperature and envirnomental survival characteristics of this virus as to whether it dies down or maintains current transmission rates - Mexico certainly has not been cold lately.

I hope PROMED is right, as it will give us all a breathing space, but we will have to wait and see. I dont think anyone can be certain of anything at the moment.
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

About the post #1 I concordate with posts #7/8/9/10 (weather/summer; plane travel, atypical pneumo./uncertainity).

Early signs were that time as this year:
#9: "In all three previous pandemics, these atypical pneumonia cases were the first indication that a novel virus was spreading in the wild. All three pandemics were associated with waves of outbreak.

We had many threads in the past months of atypical pneumonia outbreaks (Ru/...) at FT news, during the northern seasonal flu also, but many various local epid. did not publicly mention it as a warning sign.

The "until it can goes on without queue of infected people, it is not neccessary to rise the dust up, nor to rise some special healrh/travel preparedness efforts in advance).

Any way, because of the 6 months seasonal flu vacc. schedule,
the suggestion included in #1:
"the second wave can be more pathogenic than the first wave, and inclusion of the present virus in the vaccine for the autumn therefore should have the highest priority"

would probably depend if this soon fade and if the facilities are now already diverted to make one pandemic vaccine instead of seasonal.
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

Well according to WHO we have nothing to worry about only 7 died in mexico from the virus.



http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_28/en/index.html

Swine influenza - update 4
28 April 2009--The situation continues to evolve rapidly. As of 19:15 GMT, 28 April 2009, seven countries have officially reported cases of swine influenza A/H1N1 infection. The United States Government has reported 64 laboratory confirmed human cases, with no deaths. Mexico has reported 26 confirmed human cases of infection including seven deaths.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Canada (6), New Zealand (3), the United Kingdom (2), Israel (2) and Spain (2).

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.

There is also no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products. Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.

There may be only 7 confirmed deaths, but there are only 26 confirmed cases. That produces a robust CFR 87%
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

Perhaps the WHO staff needs some sleep.

When I clicked it, the last (fuzzy math) line was gone.

.
 
Re: PROMED: Likely virus will fade in weeks, reemerge in Autumn

> There is also no risk of infection from this virus from consumption
> of well-cooked pork and pork products

this is interesting.
So, there could be a risk with not-well-cooked pork ?
 
Back
Top Bottom