chakalakasp
New member
I saw this interesting tidbit in today's PROMED dispatch:
EP according to the PROMED info page, is ESKILD PETERSEN, Specialist of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases, Aarhus University Hospital, Skejby, Aarhus, Denmark.
Swine influenza and the UK
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I haven't been able to read every single ProMED-mail report covering
the new "swine" influenza outbreak but it is possible that the
reports have missed an important point concerning the UK and the rest
of Northern Europe.
I apologise if you or someone have already pointed it out, but for
the time being at least, we should have a breathing space in the
sense that influenza virus epidemics don't normally occur in Northern
Europe during the late spring and summer period.
So it would have to be totally outside precedent if this virus caused
significant infections at this time of the year in the UK.
- --
Professor EA Gould
CEH Oxford
Mansfield Road
Oxford OX1 3SR
United Kingdom
<eag@ceh.ac.uk>
[Analysis of previous pandemics show that transmission in the
Northern hemisphere stops in the beginning of May. The best analysis
I have found is this paper: Viboud et al. JID 2005;192:233-48.
Even if the present A/H1N1 has pandemic potential it is therefore
highly likely that the outbreak will fade out within the next 2 to 3
weeks, but it will reappear in the autumn.
As pointed out in an earlier posting, the second wave can be more
pathogenic than the first wave, and inclusion of the present virus in
the vaccine for the autumn therefore should have the highest priority
(I am sure it does). - Mod.EP]
EP according to the PROMED info page, is ESKILD PETERSEN, Specialist of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases, Aarhus University Hospital, Skejby, Aarhus, Denmark.