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Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
- Thread starter sharon sanders
- Start date
gsgs
Registered User
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
19:30 Fukuda about publishing sequences
amazing how they word the request for probability estimates differently,
how they avoid to ask/answer directly
e.g. Helen Branswell,Frank Jordans
you recognize, how Fukuda is trying to talk around the hot topics, addressing
it without replying directly but rather widening the subject
19:30 Fukuda about publishing sequences
amazing how they word the request for probability estimates differently,
how they avoid to ask/answer directly
e.g. Helen Branswell,Frank Jordans
you recognize, how Fukuda is trying to talk around the hot topics, addressing
it without replying directly but rather widening the subject
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
Florida1
I know everyone has been under stress and we all are getting kind of edgy.
There really is no reason for rudeness. This site is well-read and I'm pretty sure if any of Gibbs' supporters happened upon these comments they would be taken aback.
I have no knowledge of the man and it seems that if he is spouting utter nonsense, it would be really sad for him to end his career in such a way.
Florida1
I know everyone has been under stress and we all are getting kind of edgy.
There really is no reason for rudeness. This site is well-read and I'm pretty sure if any of Gibbs' supporters happened upon these comments they would be taken aback.
I have no knowledge of the man and it seems that if he is spouting utter nonsense, it would be really sad for him to end his career in such a way.
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
The swine sequence from Alberta is out, clearly showing that the "lab error" comments are UTTER nonsense.
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
The video says it all.
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
Lab error is nonsense.
The swine sequences from Alberta are out.
Lab error is nonsense.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
Exactly my point.
Gibbs is an expert in his field. He made some assertions without all the facts. This would be a matter that is argued in academic circles in "normal" times.
But these are not normal times. WHO has called a stage 5 alert. That is a pandemic stage. This means we all should be implementing our personal, community, business, and governmental pandemic plans.
An expert like Gibbs could be finding alternatives to oseltamivir. Or a way to produce more - and faster. Instead, we get this paper that speculates on the origin of novel (swine) H1N1.
Personally - I do not care where it came from.
What are we doing here?
Arguing about the origin of this strain. What WHO is saying about it. Whether Niman is right or not.
None of this is important.
We are facing a possible catastrophe of huge proportions.
We need to focus on this.
Egyptian hospitals are on emergency status.
At least 2 governorates have declared emergencies.
In 1 province the federal government has set up a special medical unit to deal with all the suspected bird flu patients.
In China they are vaccinating children under 5 for pneumonia.
Indonesia is withholding vital information about the number of confirmed H5N1 cases they have.
There will be a shortage of any vaccine produced.
There will be a shortage of masks.
And what are we discussing here???
Who is responsible for novel (swine) H1N1.
For those people who are interested in investigating possible corporate and government corruption, please start your own site. It is easy. Go to Register.com. Buy a domain name. Then buy a vbulletin. Pay for upgraded service from Register.com and they will install it for you on a server and get your site online. Then you can swear, sue people, and argue over who did what to who.
We are going to try to save lives here with our preparation forum
Our treatments forums here and here
And with our spirit.
We believe that like minded people can speak with one voice for hope.
"If you want to build a ship, don't herd people together to collect wood and don't assign them tasks and work, but rather teach them to long for the endless immensity of the sea."
Antoine de Saint-Exupery
Exactly my point.
Gibbs is an expert in his field. He made some assertions without all the facts. This would be a matter that is argued in academic circles in "normal" times.
But these are not normal times. WHO has called a stage 5 alert. That is a pandemic stage. This means we all should be implementing our personal, community, business, and governmental pandemic plans.
An expert like Gibbs could be finding alternatives to oseltamivir. Or a way to produce more - and faster. Instead, we get this paper that speculates on the origin of novel (swine) H1N1.
Personally - I do not care where it came from.
What are we doing here?
Arguing about the origin of this strain. What WHO is saying about it. Whether Niman is right or not.
None of this is important.
We are facing a possible catastrophe of huge proportions.
We need to focus on this.
Egyptian hospitals are on emergency status.
At least 2 governorates have declared emergencies.
In 1 province the federal government has set up a special medical unit to deal with all the suspected bird flu patients.
In China they are vaccinating children under 5 for pneumonia.
Indonesia is withholding vital information about the number of confirmed H5N1 cases they have.
There will be a shortage of any vaccine produced.
There will be a shortage of masks.
And what are we discussing here???
Who is responsible for novel (swine) H1N1.
For those people who are interested in investigating possible corporate and government corruption, please start your own site. It is easy. Go to Register.com. Buy a domain name. Then buy a vbulletin. Pay for upgraded service from Register.com and they will install it for you on a server and get your site online. Then you can swear, sue people, and argue over who did what to who.
We are going to try to save lives here with our preparation forum
Our treatments forums here and here
And with our spirit.
We believe that like minded people can speak with one voice for hope.
"If you want to build a ship, don't herd people together to collect wood and don't assign them tasks and work, but rather teach them to long for the endless immensity of the sea."
Antoine de Saint-Exupery
Laidback Al
Well-known member
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
Let me make one short comment -
It is not important where it came from, what we need to do is try and understand where it is going.
Let me make one short comment -
It is not important where it came from, what we need to do is try and understand where it is going.
Laidback Al
Well-known member
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
That is a question worth pondering once this pandemic is over. Right now we need to figure out how to get through this one.
That is a question worth pondering once this pandemic is over. Right now we need to figure out how to get through this one.
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
Actually, if it really came from Canada...........
Shiloh
Editor, Senior Moderator
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/15/health/policy/15flu.html
Swine Flu Was No Lab Accident, W.H.O. Says
Article Tools Sponsored By
By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Published: May 14, 2009
The swine flu virus did not result from a laboratory accident, the World Health Organization said Thursday, working to debunk rumors started by an Australian virologist and circulated by news outlets all over the world.
?We took this very seriously,? Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the agency?s deputy director-general, said of the virologist?s assertion. ?But the evidence suggests that this is a naturally occurring virus, not a laboratory-derived virus.?
In a telephone news conference, Dr. Fukuda also expressed support for drug companies? making a generic version of the antiviral drug Tamiflu. Many poor countries have no stockpiles of the drug.
Almost 6,500 confirmed cases of the new H1N1 flu have been reported from 33 countries, and 65 people have died, the W.H.O. said. About 4,300 confirmed and probable cases, with 3 deaths, were reported in the United States.
The virus rumor was started by Adrian J. Gibbs, a retired plant virologist from the Australian National University, who previously published work in the journal Science questioning the now accepted idea that the 1918 pandemic started as a bird flu.
Dr. Gibbs, who had studied the gene sequences of the swine flu virus posted on public data banks, argued that it must have been grown in eggs, the medium used in vaccine laboratories. He reached that conclusion, he said, because the new virus was not closely related to known ones and because it had more of the amino acid lysine and more mutations than typical swine flus.
His theory was reported by Bloomberg News on Tuesday. Even though scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were skeptical and some prominent virologists openly derisive, news outlets have repeated and magnified the theory, adding speculation about bioterrorism that even Dr. Gibbs repudiated. He was also interviewed Thursday on the ABC News program ?Good Morning America.?
Dr. Fukuda said a W.H.O. panel of experts had concluded that ?the hypothesis does not really stand up to scrutiny.? The lysine residues and mutation rates were typical, he said, and many swine flus seem unrelated because not enough pigs are tested each year.
But he added that he doubted the rumor would prove damaging, and he said he would not want genetic sequences kept off public databases.
?This is healthy,? he said. ?This is much better than dealing with rumors where you don?t know where the mistake comes from and can?t correct it.?
Persistent false rumors, such as those that AIDS is not caused by a virus or that polio vaccine sterilizes Muslim girls, have devastated efforts to control other diseases.
Scientists have yet to pinpoint the origin of the virus, the earliest cases of which were found in Veracruz, Mexico. It contains genes from flu viruses that normally circulate in pigs in Europe and Asia, as well as avian and human genes.
Late Thursday, Smithfield Foods reported that Mexican health authorities had not found the new virus in herds at its huge hog-fattening operations in Veracruz, which some have blamed for the outbreak. But it was not clear what test was used; only blood tests for antibodies would show whether pigs had the virus in February, when the human outbreak is thought to have begun.
As for the use of oseltamivir, the generic form of Tamiflu, the W.H.O. has certified only one drug ? Antiflu, made by the Indian company Cipla in both pill and liquid forms ? as equivalent to brand-name Tamiflu.
Dr. Yusuf K. Hamied, Cipla?s chairman, said he would sell large amounts to Mexico and is in discussion with countries in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East.
The move could prompt patent lawsuits by Gilead and Roche, which developed and sell Tamiflu, so Cipla will sell only to countries indemnifying them against such suits, the company said.
Roche has offered the W.H.O. 6.5 million doses of Tamiflu and 1 million to Mexico.
Dr. Hamied, reluctant to buy supplies for orders that might not materialize, said Thursday that poor countries should stockpile shikimic acid, the oseltamivir precursor, then pay Cipla or other generic companies to make the drug as needed.
In 2001, Cipla was the first company to offer generic AIDS drugs.
The swine flu may cause the W.H.O. to cut short its nine-day annual conference of world health ministers so they can get home to fight the disease, Reuters reported, saying it had obtained a W.H.O. memo on the plan.
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/15/health/policy/15flu.html
Swine Flu Was No Lab Accident, W.H.O. Says
Article Tools Sponsored By
By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Published: May 14, 2009
The swine flu virus did not result from a laboratory accident, the World Health Organization said Thursday, working to debunk rumors started by an Australian virologist and circulated by news outlets all over the world.
?We took this very seriously,? Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the agency?s deputy director-general, said of the virologist?s assertion. ?But the evidence suggests that this is a naturally occurring virus, not a laboratory-derived virus.?
In a telephone news conference, Dr. Fukuda also expressed support for drug companies? making a generic version of the antiviral drug Tamiflu. Many poor countries have no stockpiles of the drug.
Almost 6,500 confirmed cases of the new H1N1 flu have been reported from 33 countries, and 65 people have died, the W.H.O. said. About 4,300 confirmed and probable cases, with 3 deaths, were reported in the United States.
The virus rumor was started by Adrian J. Gibbs, a retired plant virologist from the Australian National University, who previously published work in the journal Science questioning the now accepted idea that the 1918 pandemic started as a bird flu.
Dr. Gibbs, who had studied the gene sequences of the swine flu virus posted on public data banks, argued that it must have been grown in eggs, the medium used in vaccine laboratories. He reached that conclusion, he said, because the new virus was not closely related to known ones and because it had more of the amino acid lysine and more mutations than typical swine flus.
His theory was reported by Bloomberg News on Tuesday. Even though scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were skeptical and some prominent virologists openly derisive, news outlets have repeated and magnified the theory, adding speculation about bioterrorism that even Dr. Gibbs repudiated. He was also interviewed Thursday on the ABC News program ?Good Morning America.?
Dr. Fukuda said a W.H.O. panel of experts had concluded that ?the hypothesis does not really stand up to scrutiny.? The lysine residues and mutation rates were typical, he said, and many swine flus seem unrelated because not enough pigs are tested each year.
But he added that he doubted the rumor would prove damaging, and he said he would not want genetic sequences kept off public databases.
?This is healthy,? he said. ?This is much better than dealing with rumors where you don?t know where the mistake comes from and can?t correct it.?
Persistent false rumors, such as those that AIDS is not caused by a virus or that polio vaccine sterilizes Muslim girls, have devastated efforts to control other diseases.
Scientists have yet to pinpoint the origin of the virus, the earliest cases of which were found in Veracruz, Mexico. It contains genes from flu viruses that normally circulate in pigs in Europe and Asia, as well as avian and human genes.
Late Thursday, Smithfield Foods reported that Mexican health authorities had not found the new virus in herds at its huge hog-fattening operations in Veracruz, which some have blamed for the outbreak. But it was not clear what test was used; only blood tests for antibodies would show whether pigs had the virus in February, when the human outbreak is thought to have begun.
As for the use of oseltamivir, the generic form of Tamiflu, the W.H.O. has certified only one drug ? Antiflu, made by the Indian company Cipla in both pill and liquid forms ? as equivalent to brand-name Tamiflu.
Dr. Yusuf K. Hamied, Cipla?s chairman, said he would sell large amounts to Mexico and is in discussion with countries in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East.
The move could prompt patent lawsuits by Gilead and Roche, which developed and sell Tamiflu, so Cipla will sell only to countries indemnifying them against such suits, the company said.
Roche has offered the W.H.O. 6.5 million doses of Tamiflu and 1 million to Mexico.
Dr. Hamied, reluctant to buy supplies for orders that might not materialize, said Thursday that poor countries should stockpile shikimic acid, the oseltamivir precursor, then pay Cipla or other generic companies to make the drug as needed.
In 2001, Cipla was the first company to offer generic AIDS drugs.
The swine flu may cause the W.H.O. to cut short its nine-day annual conference of world health ministers so they can get home to fight the disease, Reuters reported, saying it had obtained a W.H.O. memo on the plan.
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
Well, I'm glad the WHO absolutely cleared this up for us. :applause:
The only problem I have is Fukuda's hedge word "But the evidence suggests that..."
Since headlines read: "Swine Flu Was No Lab Accident", then evidence should "prove" and not "suggest". Unless that's some kind of science speak...?
Well, I'm glad the WHO absolutely cleared this up for us. :applause:
The only problem I have is Fukuda's hedge word "But the evidence suggests that..."
Since headlines read: "Swine Flu Was No Lab Accident", then evidence should "prove" and not "suggest". Unless that's some kind of science speak...?
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
And what does this unfinished sentence imply?
And what does this unfinished sentence imply?
gsgs
Registered User
Re: Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim
use numbers for probabilites instead to enhance communication
use numbers for probabilites instead to enhance communication