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Discussion thread IV - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)
- Thread starter kiwibird
- Start date
gsgs
Registered User
> There are imported cases on the Sino-Russian border and elsewhere, and they will continue
> to spread to other people. This is a big problem."
there are just a few cases per day, max=10 . So why is it a big problem ?
> still in the control stage, and masks cannot be completely abandoned
but they report 0 new cases in most provinces since many days ?!
I mean, it seems to work in China. We all want to come to that level.
And maintain it until vaccine.
Occasional situations as in Singapore may happen, though
> to spread to other people. This is a big problem."
there are just a few cases per day, max=10 . So why is it a big problem ?
> still in the control stage, and masks cannot be completely abandoned
but they report 0 new cases in most provinces since many days ?!
I mean, it seems to work in China. We all want to come to that level.
And maintain it until vaccine.
Occasional situations as in Singapore may happen, though
This may just be a translation artifact but there is a difference between Asymptomatic (people who clear the disease without ever showing symptoms) and Pre-symptomatic (those who are not showing symptoms yet but will go onto). It may seem a small point but can be important. The truly asymptomatic are an important group because they are difficult to detect and for two other reasons. Firstly they may, or may not, be infectious which has major implications for containment. Secondly they may, or may not, develop anti-bodies and if they do these may, or may not be neutralising. If they do not produce antibodies they do not count towards herd immunity, if they do they could be a useful source of convalescent serum. If the antibodies are nutralising then they should be immune to reinfection if they are not they may catch it again but should only have mild disease which is quickly cleared.
So "fatigue and cough are more likely to become the primary symptoms of asymptomatic patients." might be better stated as "fatigue and cough are more likely to become the primary symptoms of pre-symptomatic patients as they become symptomatic"
So "fatigue and cough are more likely to become the primary symptoms of asymptomatic patients." might be better stated as "fatigue and cough are more likely to become the primary symptoms of pre-symptomatic patients as they become symptomatic"
Why is it a big problem? I think this is the same problem we all have individually, but on a national scale. I may have carefully isolated and be virus free but if there is any virus in the community, and I try to resume normal activity, I am likely to catch it. China may achieve total clearance within its boarders but it can not resume normal activity by opening its boarders and trading with us if we are continually challenging it with fresh infections.
bertrand789
Well-known member
Quand on parle de certains sujets, il faut ?tre s?rieux:
https://www.pigprogress.net/World-of...n=pig_progress
https://www.pigprogress.net/World-of...n=pig_progress
Shiloh
Editor, Senior Moderator
Antibody-dependent enhancement is important when it comes to developing a vaccine: https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20249
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
Attachments
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
US - CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus is likely to be even more devastating
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...e-cdcdirector/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...e-cdcdirector/
Treyfish
Moderator
:tiphat:deserves its own thread?
Corona19 I contacted 172 people with an infected 9-year-old boy, but no one is infected.
2020-04-21 01:55
Change font s
Includes cases of a French 9-year-old boy infected with ski resorts in an international journal ...Two brothers and sisters also voice
Researchers "Children seem to have different infection kinetics than adults"
(Paris = Yonhap News) Correspondent Yong-Rae Kim = In France, a 9-year-old boy was infected with the new coronavirus (Corona19) and contacted 172 people, including his siblings, but was not reported to have transmitted the virus to a single person.
Academia notes that the boy's case suggests that children have a different mechanism of infection with the Corona19 virus than adults.
According to French media, such as Riverasion, for 20 days (local time), a 9-year-old boy infected with Corona 19 at a ski resort in the Alpine mountainous region had close contact with 172 people since the infection, but did not spread the virus to anyone.
.
Riverasion obtained the paper, which was published on the 11th, in an international journal, 'Clinical Infectious Deseases', and reported on the day.
According to the paper, the boy was infected with Corona 19 in early February at a ski resort in Contamine Montjua in Haute-Savoie, eastern France.
At the time, the boy's ski resort had a British man who came to France after being infected with Corona 19 in Singapore, where a total of 12 people were infected with the new coronavirus.The boy is one of these 12.
The boy had mild symptoms, but without knowing that he was infected with Corona 19, he attended three ski clubs to learn skiing, and a total of 172 people were identified, including children and teachers.
Later, when the health authorities confirmed that the boy was infected with Corona19, all 172 people who had come into contact with the boy went into self-isolation on a preventive basis, with no one more infected.
Even the two brothers and sisters who were closest to the boy were not infected with the virus.
172 children who were in contact with the boy were not infected with Corona 19, but more than half of them were positive for seasonal virus tests, such as the flu.
Scholars who studied the case rated the results as suggesting that children may not be the major source of the Corona19 virus.
The first author of the paper, Dr. Costa Dani, an infectious disease doctor in France, told AFP, "Children do not show many symptoms even if they are infected with Corona 19, and because they do not have a large amount of virus, it may be that they do not spread the new virus." Said.
"This child is infected with other respiratory viruses in addition to Corona 19 and has not carried the virus while participating in three ski schools." "I suggest.":tiphat:https://m.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200421...te=popularnews
Corona19 I contacted 172 people with an infected 9-year-old boy, but no one is infected.
2020-04-21 01:55
Change font s
Includes cases of a French 9-year-old boy infected with ski resorts in an international journal ...Two brothers and sisters also voice
Researchers "Children seem to have different infection kinetics than adults"
(Paris = Yonhap News) Correspondent Yong-Rae Kim = In France, a 9-year-old boy was infected with the new coronavirus (Corona19) and contacted 172 people, including his siblings, but was not reported to have transmitted the virus to a single person.
Academia notes that the boy's case suggests that children have a different mechanism of infection with the Corona19 virus than adults.
According to French media, such as Riverasion, for 20 days (local time), a 9-year-old boy infected with Corona 19 at a ski resort in the Alpine mountainous region had close contact with 172 people since the infection, but did not spread the virus to anyone.
.
Riverasion obtained the paper, which was published on the 11th, in an international journal, 'Clinical Infectious Deseases', and reported on the day.
According to the paper, the boy was infected with Corona 19 in early February at a ski resort in Contamine Montjua in Haute-Savoie, eastern France.
At the time, the boy's ski resort had a British man who came to France after being infected with Corona 19 in Singapore, where a total of 12 people were infected with the new coronavirus.The boy is one of these 12.
The boy had mild symptoms, but without knowing that he was infected with Corona 19, he attended three ski clubs to learn skiing, and a total of 172 people were identified, including children and teachers.
Later, when the health authorities confirmed that the boy was infected with Corona19, all 172 people who had come into contact with the boy went into self-isolation on a preventive basis, with no one more infected.
Even the two brothers and sisters who were closest to the boy were not infected with the virus.
172 children who were in contact with the boy were not infected with Corona 19, but more than half of them were positive for seasonal virus tests, such as the flu.
Scholars who studied the case rated the results as suggesting that children may not be the major source of the Corona19 virus.
The first author of the paper, Dr. Costa Dani, an infectious disease doctor in France, told AFP, "Children do not show many symptoms even if they are infected with Corona 19, and because they do not have a large amount of virus, it may be that they do not spread the new virus." Said.
"This child is infected with other respiratory viruses in addition to Corona 19 and has not carried the virus while participating in three ski schools." "I suggest.":tiphat:https://m.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200421...te=popularnews
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Translation Google
No more coronavirus cases "within a month"? Didier Raoult's hypothesis challenged by his colleagues
04/22/2020 at 12:14 p.m.
In front of our cameras, Professor Didier Raoult hypothesized that the Covid-19 was only a seasonal epidemic and would stop circulating in temperate countries within a month. This Wednesday morning, on our antenna, some of his colleagues reacted to these positions.
With the steady, albeit slow, decline in hospitalizations and the number of placements in resuscitation services, the outlook for researchers facing coronavirus is evolving. For them, it is now also a question of answering these questions: does the decline of the virus herald its impending extinction? On the contrary, will there be a second wave or a return in the coming months? If so, how often? Is the spread of the virus linked to the season and as such is doomed to disappear under the arrival of the spring heat?
"If things continue like this ..."
On Tuesday, from his office at the IHU M?diterran?e Infection in Marseille, which he heads, Professor Didier Raoult, strongly disputed since his promotion of a treatment of Covid-19 based on chloroquine, clearly favored this last track:
"We now have a constant decrease in the number of cases diagnosed, the number of hospitalizations. The number of deaths will be a little longer because people often die more than a month after being infected. We are sure a downward wave. I’m not predicting the future, but if things go on like this, we have the impression that what was one of the possibilities of this disease, that is to say a seasonal disease, is to come true. "
He then added: "It is possible that within a month there will be no more cases at all in most temperate countries. This is a significant possibility."
The three scenarios
Several of his colleagues reacted this Wednesday morning on BFMTV. Our health consultant, Doctor Alain Ducardonnet has stated a balanced judgment. "These are hypotheses which are plausible, because the other coronaviruses, and the flu also, have this seasonality," he posed in the preamble. He then explained:
"Over time, we know that they disappear during the summer and then return in the winter. It is also based on observations: there are less ultraviolet rays, sunshine in winter so we attack viruses less. Viruses, especially the RNA virus as is the coronavirus, do not like ultraviolet at all because it cuts and cuts them. And viruses, not (necessarily) the coronavirus - we don't know that - prefer cold. And so it’s easier to spread. "
But for him, the field remains open, divided into three options. "Today, there are three scenarios. The first is to say that this virus will stop, like Sras, which had emerged in 2002-2003. Second possibility: a reservoir will persist as for the Seas , appeared in 2012 in the Middle East. Last possibility: it is this notion of seasonality, that is to say that the virus will "circulate less, without disappearing, during the summer before returning in period of winter ", concluded Alain Ducardonnet.
"No modeling allows to say it"
Gilles Pialoux, head of the infectious diseases department at Tenon hospital in Paris, was much more concise on the subject facing Jean-Jacques Bourdin this Wednesday morning. "We are very far from the 'grippounette' and above all we have not finished. We have not finished with the heat, not finished with the seasonal worker, we have not finished with the circulation of the virus", he said.
"Contrary to what some people say we will live with this coronavirus until the end of the year," he said. He refuted the reading of the trends of the disease operated by Didier Raoult: "No modeling allows to say that. And we are wary of the possible effect of deconfinement."
According to Gilles Pialoux, the trajectory common to all countries guarantees that the virus is installed over time: "All countries have had the same kinetics, the same history. There is therefore always a very strong international concern."
Jean-Daniel Leli?vre, head of the department of immunology and infectious diseases of the Henri-Mondor hospital in Cr?teil, introduced his remarks on our antenna by confirming that he observed a deceleration of Covid-19 in the departments for which he is responsible .
"Very clearly, what we see is a decrease in the number of hospitalizations. In a service like mine which usually has 20 beds, increased to 50 beds, a week ago there were no beds free, now there are regular places. We can feel the decrease in the number of infections, what we want is for it to be maintained and therefore for the deconfinement to be done in good conditions ", it described on BFMTV.
Time as referee
Jean-Daniel Leli?vre, however, questioned the idea of a complete shortness of breath in the circulation of evil within thirty days and its seasonal nature: "For the moment, no data lets us think that. As you know , it is a pandemic so this virus is present everywhere in the world including in hot countries so we do not see how the temperature would have any influence on the epidemic. " Time will therefore serve as an arbiter.
Robin Verner
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/plus-de-...s-1898792.html
No more coronavirus cases "within a month"? Didier Raoult's hypothesis challenged by his colleagues
04/22/2020 at 12:14 p.m.
In front of our cameras, Professor Didier Raoult hypothesized that the Covid-19 was only a seasonal epidemic and would stop circulating in temperate countries within a month. This Wednesday morning, on our antenna, some of his colleagues reacted to these positions.
With the steady, albeit slow, decline in hospitalizations and the number of placements in resuscitation services, the outlook for researchers facing coronavirus is evolving. For them, it is now also a question of answering these questions: does the decline of the virus herald its impending extinction? On the contrary, will there be a second wave or a return in the coming months? If so, how often? Is the spread of the virus linked to the season and as such is doomed to disappear under the arrival of the spring heat?
"If things continue like this ..."
On Tuesday, from his office at the IHU M?diterran?e Infection in Marseille, which he heads, Professor Didier Raoult, strongly disputed since his promotion of a treatment of Covid-19 based on chloroquine, clearly favored this last track:
"We now have a constant decrease in the number of cases diagnosed, the number of hospitalizations. The number of deaths will be a little longer because people often die more than a month after being infected. We are sure a downward wave. I’m not predicting the future, but if things go on like this, we have the impression that what was one of the possibilities of this disease, that is to say a seasonal disease, is to come true. "
He then added: "It is possible that within a month there will be no more cases at all in most temperate countries. This is a significant possibility."
The three scenarios
Several of his colleagues reacted this Wednesday morning on BFMTV. Our health consultant, Doctor Alain Ducardonnet has stated a balanced judgment. "These are hypotheses which are plausible, because the other coronaviruses, and the flu also, have this seasonality," he posed in the preamble. He then explained:
"Over time, we know that they disappear during the summer and then return in the winter. It is also based on observations: there are less ultraviolet rays, sunshine in winter so we attack viruses less. Viruses, especially the RNA virus as is the coronavirus, do not like ultraviolet at all because it cuts and cuts them. And viruses, not (necessarily) the coronavirus - we don't know that - prefer cold. And so it’s easier to spread. "
But for him, the field remains open, divided into three options. "Today, there are three scenarios. The first is to say that this virus will stop, like Sras, which had emerged in 2002-2003. Second possibility: a reservoir will persist as for the Seas , appeared in 2012 in the Middle East. Last possibility: it is this notion of seasonality, that is to say that the virus will "circulate less, without disappearing, during the summer before returning in period of winter ", concluded Alain Ducardonnet.
"No modeling allows to say it"
Gilles Pialoux, head of the infectious diseases department at Tenon hospital in Paris, was much more concise on the subject facing Jean-Jacques Bourdin this Wednesday morning. "We are very far from the 'grippounette' and above all we have not finished. We have not finished with the heat, not finished with the seasonal worker, we have not finished with the circulation of the virus", he said.
"Contrary to what some people say we will live with this coronavirus until the end of the year," he said. He refuted the reading of the trends of the disease operated by Didier Raoult: "No modeling allows to say that. And we are wary of the possible effect of deconfinement."
According to Gilles Pialoux, the trajectory common to all countries guarantees that the virus is installed over time: "All countries have had the same kinetics, the same history. There is therefore always a very strong international concern."
Jean-Daniel Leli?vre, head of the department of immunology and infectious diseases of the Henri-Mondor hospital in Cr?teil, introduced his remarks on our antenna by confirming that he observed a deceleration of Covid-19 in the departments for which he is responsible .
"Very clearly, what we see is a decrease in the number of hospitalizations. In a service like mine which usually has 20 beds, increased to 50 beds, a week ago there were no beds free, now there are regular places. We can feel the decrease in the number of infections, what we want is for it to be maintained and therefore for the deconfinement to be done in good conditions ", it described on BFMTV.
Time as referee
Jean-Daniel Leli?vre, however, questioned the idea of a complete shortness of breath in the circulation of evil within thirty days and its seasonal nature: "For the moment, no data lets us think that. As you know , it is a pandemic so this virus is present everywhere in the world including in hot countries so we do not see how the temperature would have any influence on the epidemic. " Time will therefore serve as an arbiter.
Robin Verner
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/plus-de-...s-1898792.html
bertrand789
Well-known member
Or pour la premi?re fois, l’OMS a d?cid?, lors de sa 72[SUP]?me [/SUP]assembl?e mondiale de la sant? –grand rendez-vous annuel de l’organisation onusienne-, de reconna?tre officiellement la m?decine traditionnelle. Celle-ci compte d?sormais un chapitre, d’utilisation?facultative?, dans la Classification internationale des maladies (CIM), dont la 11[SUP]?me[/SUP] r?vision, adopt?e lors de l’assembl?e, entrera en vigueur en janvier 2022.
Intitul? ‘Pathologies d?finies par la m?decine traditionnelle – module 1’, ce chapitre n’a trait qu’? la m?decine chinoise, utilis?e bien au-del? de la Chine, ? savoir dans de nombreux pays d’Asie et au sein des communaut?s asiatiques ?tablies ? travers le monde. D’autres ‘modules’, relatifs ? d’autres m?decines traditionnelles, pourraient ?tre ajout?s ? la CIM lors de futures r?visions.
?L’inclusion d’un chapitre suppl?mentaire sur la m?decine traditionnelle dans la CIM permettra, pour la premi?re fois, de d?nombrer les services et les recours relatifs ? la m?decine traditionnelle, de mesurer leur forme, leur fr?quence, leur efficacit?, leur s?curit?, leur qualit?, leurs r?sultats, leur co?t; et de la comparer ? la m?decine courante et ? la recherche gr?ce ? des termes et ? des d?finitions normalis?s aux niveaux national et international?, explique l’OMS dans un rapport adopt? ? Gen?ve.
http://www.faunesauvage.fr/sinformer...-peau-du-tigre
https://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_fi.../A72_29-fr.pdf
donc il va falloir attendre le premier janvier 2022, pour que les donn?es soient produites ?
Intitul? ‘Pathologies d?finies par la m?decine traditionnelle – module 1’, ce chapitre n’a trait qu’? la m?decine chinoise, utilis?e bien au-del? de la Chine, ? savoir dans de nombreux pays d’Asie et au sein des communaut?s asiatiques ?tablies ? travers le monde. D’autres ‘modules’, relatifs ? d’autres m?decines traditionnelles, pourraient ?tre ajout?s ? la CIM lors de futures r?visions.
?L’inclusion d’un chapitre suppl?mentaire sur la m?decine traditionnelle dans la CIM permettra, pour la premi?re fois, de d?nombrer les services et les recours relatifs ? la m?decine traditionnelle, de mesurer leur forme, leur fr?quence, leur efficacit?, leur s?curit?, leur qualit?, leurs r?sultats, leur co?t; et de la comparer ? la m?decine courante et ? la recherche gr?ce ? des termes et ? des d?finitions normalis?s aux niveaux national et international?, explique l’OMS dans un rapport adopt? ? Gen?ve.
http://www.faunesauvage.fr/sinformer...-peau-du-tigre
https://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_fi.../A72_29-fr.pdf
donc il va falloir attendre le premier janvier 2022, pour que les donn?es soient produites ?
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
I think it is already too late to run proper trials in the US.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ace-to-develop-a-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19
"Organising trials after the peak subsides presents another problem, because so many people will have cultivated a natural immunity by then. Transmission will have dropped as well, Gilbert said – it’s hard to know how well a vaccine trial is going if the subjects aren’t being exposed to the virus at all. “This is herd immunity – good for the population, but it makes testing a vaccine more difficult,” she explained.
The best possible scenario involves delaying the pandemic’s peak – pushing it through the summer towards August, to buy scientists a few extra months to run their trials. “So we’d really be pleased,” Gilbert said sternly, “if everyone will just do what they’re being told and stay at home.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ace-to-develop-a-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19
"Organising trials after the peak subsides presents another problem, because so many people will have cultivated a natural immunity by then. Transmission will have dropped as well, Gilbert said – it’s hard to know how well a vaccine trial is going if the subjects aren’t being exposed to the virus at all. “This is herd immunity – good for the population, but it makes testing a vaccine more difficult,” she explained.
The best possible scenario involves delaying the pandemic’s peak – pushing it through the summer towards August, to buy scientists a few extra months to run their trials. “So we’d really be pleased,” Gilbert said sternly, “if everyone will just do what they’re being told and stay at home.”"
Sorry, but is there a reliable and representative age-gender distribution of fatals arising from COVID from any country’s data and researchers?
There seems to be questions about reliable data everywhere. CN is deferring to CDC, likely due to frail CN reporting systems, but there are questions on the definitions, reporting and other disputes that mars CDC’s reliability. And China stats/research are skewed by different societal factors and general prejudice in North America audiences. Perhaps the rigorous data collection in Scandinavian countries is giving a more reliable distribution? Can we really say with confidence that COVID is unlikely to kill younger age groups?
The reason for the question is that there is debate in Canada about the relaxation of school lockdowns. The underlying assumption is that kids are not dying from COVID, nor is it widely know that COVID will create severe impairments in young age groups.
Thanks,
J.
There seems to be questions about reliable data everywhere. CN is deferring to CDC, likely due to frail CN reporting systems, but there are questions on the definitions, reporting and other disputes that mars CDC’s reliability. And China stats/research are skewed by different societal factors and general prejudice in North America audiences. Perhaps the rigorous data collection in Scandinavian countries is giving a more reliable distribution? Can we really say with confidence that COVID is unlikely to kill younger age groups?
The reason for the question is that there is debate in Canada about the relaxation of school lockdowns. The underlying assumption is that kids are not dying from COVID, nor is it widely know that COVID will create severe impairments in young age groups.
Thanks,
J.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
From my reading it appears that this disease infects but does not kill healthy children under 10. Some teenagers have died but this is apparently rare. There is a new study that postulates there might be some undiagnosed damage to children. And there is always the mutation potential. I think the schools were closed in the U.S. because schools are super spreaders.
gsgs
Registered User
I also read recently that Children may not spread it to others. Age-gender lists from Italy(ISS),Spain(wiki),UK(ons),Germany(RKI),F(inse e),...
China:http://magictour.free.fr/study17.pdf
Germany https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-04-23-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
France: https://www.insee.fr/fr/information/4470857
Italy : https://www.epicentro.iss.it/corona...glianza-integrata-COVID-19_23-aprile-2020.pdf
China:http://magictour.free.fr/study17.pdf
Germany https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-04-23-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
France: https://www.insee.fr/fr/information/4470857
Italy : https://www.epicentro.iss.it/corona...glianza-integrata-COVID-19_23-aprile-2020.pdf
The age distribution data seems to be the one thing everyone can agree on. The problem comes with the children, they get it but without getting very ill. What is not clear is how efficient they are as vectors of spread. I have not seen PCR Ct values broken down for children, which is probably the best guide to re-opening of schools. I don't think the main concern is the children but who they may go on to infect.
Ronan Kelly
Retired 2020
Multiple states in the past few days have reduced their reported numbers of deaths - Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Kansas, Pennsylvania. In some cases only by a few, but for PA over 200 reduction. It almost seems like a directive to remove the "probable" deaths again.