Discussion thread IV - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

[Steffi]

#229 re math - there is no way that using an average for population vs confirmed infected persons gives an accurate picture. 341 persons that had traveled abroad brought Covid19 to Iceland and managed to infect 1.451 other people. One infected person did send 200 people he came in contact with to quarantine, others much fewer. This has to do with screening and testing numbers.

#231 confirmed infected pr 100.000 inhabitants

Iceland = 492 pr 100.000

Switzerland = 340 pr 100.000

USA = 305 pr 100.000

UK = 237 pr 100.000

The Netherlands = 219 pr 100.000

Germany = 190 pr 100.000

Sweden = 183 pr 100.000

Denmark = 149 pr 100.000

Norway = 141 pr 100.000

Canada = 127 pr 100.000

Finland = 85 pr 100.000

China = 6 pr 100.000
______________________________

In regard to the second picture, I do realize that test kits were not available, but there were other measures that could have been taken, right in the beginning - at least distancing and restrictions to hospitals and nursing homes. Lets just focus on getting these numbers down, put travel restrictions on countries that do publicly give their numbers on infected people and assist those not able to cope with this pandemic.

Pictures from https://daton.is/covid19/ that uses John Hopkins data

 

[Steffi]

•Apr 27, 2020 Iceland genetics expert says COVID-19 was 'widespread in the UK very early'

A genetics company in Iceland is gathering data from COVID-19 patients, to build a detailed picture of the behaviour of the virus. Founder Doctor Kari Stefansson also said that coronavirus was "widespread in the UK very early".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPJq...ature=youtu.be and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0khyGj98mk

deCode is now checking 3 types of tests to find antibodies - to find which gives the most reliable results (there has been questions raised in regard to different test being suitable for different agegroups) and to find out if people do get resistant to the virus. The plan is to check 10.000 people of each age group roughly 10 years apart.

 

[sharon sanders]

We can argue about this all day long. I am not going to change my mind either - unless someone can give me a good reason to.

You can't compare China to any other country. They did a fantastic job at limiting spread to the rest of the country from Hubei.

No one is wearing an N95 type mask except health care workers - good that is as it should be.

They are still closing neighborhoods and areas of some cities - which is keeping their daily numbers easily manageable.

So you are saying that China has great case and death numbers as compared to the US and Western Europe due to Chinese traditional medicine. No that is not what I said. I said you can not do a direct comparison between treatment in China and in Europe because nearly all Chinese patients got a treatment no one in Europe got and we do not know what effect that had. I also said the crude CFR was about the same in China and the US but the very different % of the population who have caught it to date is due to China pursuing containment while we opted to skip that step and go straight to mitigation. S Korea's numbers look like China's because they also pursued containment, albeit by a different route.

My main point is why start with the assumption that China is lying when it changes the way it counts cases "From the first minute China was engineering their case counts. Then they reset they way they count a few times. All along the way they have undercounted." but the UK and US have also changed their numbers as they add in deaths in nursing homes, deaths in the community and amend the way COVID with co-morbidities are counted. All 3 countries have under-counted and for the same reason - testing capacity is never going to match viral exponential growth.

They did not do a fantastic job limiting spread to the rest of the country from Hubei. We don't know much about the rest of the country. They did not allow much information out about anything. We know only about a few large cities. Silence is usually a bad indicator when it comes to China.

The comment about the government still closing cities, venues, etc. is to point out that their situation is not over and that they have not replicated South Korea's method or success.

China pursued containment only after letting the disease run wild for a couple of months which seeded Hubei province (and who knows where else). The local government allowing a huge banquet attended by 40,000 people on January 19th (when 62 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 at a local Wuhan hospital) is not "containment". link

I know they lied about their case counts from the beginning because they punished the doctors who told everyone about the cases they were seeing at their Wuhan hospital in late December. Everyone knows about this. link

The change in case counts in the U.S. has ADDED cases to the total. Not taken cases away. (i.e. adding nursing homes and jails, etc.)

There is no comparison between traditional Chinese medicine to anything in the West. Maybe it prevented the roughly 2 million missing cases. If this is true China must announce this now. Every day thousands are dying.

If China has a cure they should loudly tell the world now and present the evidence!

 

[flatlander]

#238
Today, 02:18 PM
#234 USA had the S-strain that seemed to be much milder than the L-Strain

Is there data out now that shows there is a known difference in the effects of the various strains they have found around the world? I know today in the WHO meeting this topic came up and they indicated that there is no known difference in how the disease reacts based on the strain variations. However I have seen in the past that things have come up in meetings before they are willing to comment on it(probably still need to determine a stance). If there is, it certainly might help in explaining many of the data differences we are seeing all over.

 

[bertrand789]

pr?alable concernant ceci :
Si la Chine a un rem?de, ils devraient le dire haut et fort au monde maintenant et pr?senter les preuves!

Ce sont des propos d'un joueur d'?chec, un jeu que je n'appr?cie gu?re. Vous imaginez un joueur de Go tenir ce type propos ? moi NON ...

Voyons, imaginer, des personnes d?tentrices de savoirs qui ont ?t? ridiculis?s, pendant des si?cles, venir vous expliquer comment il faut faire, vous plaisantez. Les ?bats herboriste, pharmacie , cela a toujours ?t? gracieux, non ?

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...nd-perspective

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...avirus-disease

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...osananakai-etc

M?me si le coeur de m?tier du plus grand laboratoire pharmaceutique au monde c'est encore des d?riv?s, notamment, de plantes, il me semble...

https://www.merckgroup.com/en/compan...y/mission.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merck_Group
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merck_&_Co.
En revanche, vous pourriez m'expliquer pourquoi l'O.M.S va inclure les donn?es concernant la m?decine traditionnelle chinoise et comment, dans le d?tail ?

Il a du y avoir bien des d?bats sur le sujet, ils sont ou ?

Une autre question qui pourrez ?tre pos?e est: la m?decine traditionnelle chinoise faisait-elle officiellement partie du plan d'action ?
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...-pandemic-plan

 

[gsgs]

the scientists, the experts do trust the Chinese numbers

 

[sharon sanders]

pr?alable concernant ceci :
Si la Chine a un rem?de, ils devraient le dire haut et fort au monde maintenant et pr?senter les preuves!

Ce sont des propos d'un joueur d'?chec, un jeu que je n'appr?cie gu?re. Vous imaginez un joueur de Go tenir ce type propos ? moi NON ...

Voyons, imaginer, des personnes d?tentrices de savoirs qui ont ?t? ridiculis?s, pendant des si?cles, venir vous expliquer comment il faut faire, vous plaisantez. Les ?bats herboriste, pharmacie , cela a toujours ?t? gracieux, non ?

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...nd-perspective

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...avirus-disease

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...osananakai-etc

M?me si le coeur de m?tier du plus grand laboratoire pharmaceutique au monde c'est encore des d?riv?s, notamment, de plantes, il me semble...

https://www.merckgroup.com/en/compan...y/mission.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merck_Group
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merck_&_Co.
En revanche, vous pourriez m'expliquer pourquoi l'O.M.S va inclure les donn?es concernant la m?decine traditionnelle chinoise et comment, dans le d?tail ?

Il a du y avoir bien des d?bats sur le sujet, ils sont ou ?

Une autre question qui pourrez ?tre pos?e est: la m?decine traditionnelle chinoise faisait-elle officiellement partie du plan d'action ?
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...-pandemic-plan

Yes. We post many studies on possible treatments for many different ailments.

As far as I know there is no proven safe and effective therapy that prevents COVID-19. Not from pharma or any traditional treatment. If China avoided 2 million COVID-19 cases with any type of therapy it would be great to know how they did this. The only proven effective prevention "therapy" is distancing and cleanliness. The available information about shut downs in China do not describe a whole country shut down. So if the entire country was not shut down and there is no announcement of any therapy that works effectively to prevent COVID-19 then how did China avoid 2 million cases?

There is no way out of this. Worldwide over 211k people have died so far - in 16 weeks. We owe to them a full investigation so we can prevent this destruction in the future.

This is the internet and surveillance age. The truth will come out at the international court proceedings.

I don't care that some people do not agree with me. I am not changing my opinion.

I can not be bought.

FluTrackers can not be bought.

We are Independent Media.

 

[bertrand789]

un peu d'humour, pour certains, am?ricain:
Les statistiques, c'est comme le bikini. Ce qu'elles r?v?lent est suggestif. Ce qu'elles dissimulent est essentiel.
http://www.1001-citations.com/citation-26978/

Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.
attributed, Laurence J. Peter Quotations for Our Time (1977)

https://www.oxfordreference.com/view...o-ed4-00016754

il y a des variances r?centes:
? Nous pouvons consid?rer qu'effectivement, la vie, ce ne sont pas des statistiques, et comme le disait Winston Churchill, ce qu'ils montrent est int?ressant, mais c'est comme les maillots de bain : ce qu'ils cachent l'est encore plus. ?.
https://www.demotivateur.fr/article/...ssemblee-15512

concernant le monde m?dical:
" En remontant sa trace en France, on retrouve ce bon mot dans la Revue des deux mondes du 5 mai 1964, au d?tour d'un texte sur le d?clin du prestige des m?decins : "Ces statistiques qui, le professeur Lemazelier l'a dit, comme les bikinis, montrent ? peu pr?s tout, mais cachent l'essentiel"."
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/replay-r...e_3160585.html

 

[ming]

What do you all think of the UK failing to close their airports or have any kind of checks on passengers coming in? Are we the only country who has failed to screen incoming travellers?

 

[Emily]

Youtube may be pulling down this video of an interview with two ER doctors in Calfornia. They are sharing the science against quarantining healthy people from now on based in real life data coming in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndL0uSmKTQU

Here's the original Part 2 of the interview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw It's the Part 1 that has been scrubbed by Youtube but that is reposted in the version above. We watched both earlier today. I don't understand why Youtube would be censoring the interview. They aren't suggesting a chaotic reversal of distancing measures, but they point out the dangers to immune functioning if this goes on in its current mode in the U.S. Also they report the social harm they and other ER's are seeing in terms of dramatic increases in child molestation and spouse abuse by intoxicated, angry unemployed workers. They question why treatment of all other illnesses are being overshadowed by a new disease that from their data is no worse that the flu.

They also said that doctors are being pressured to put COVID-19 down as a cause of death even if they don't agree.

 

[bertrand789]

concernant ceci :

"Que pensez-vous tous du fait que le Royaume-Uni n'a pas ferm? ses a?roports ou fait contr?ler les passagers qui arrivent? ​

Sommes-nous le seul pays qui n'a pas r?ussi ? filtrer les voyageurs entrants?"

Vu le choix du brexit , c'est ?conomiquement pertinent d'?tre original, donc de faire ce que les autres ne font pas.

De plus pourquoi aller chercher les variantes rares loin, si elles peuvent venir toutes seules ( je pense ? L'Inde) ?

Je suis en train de d?guster ceci : Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-b8420170203e

Parler de danse, c'est plus "fun" que de distanciation sociale ou de confinement ? une valse, un tango , ou ?

j'esp?re que vous avez pris plaisir ? d?guster ceci :

LE PRESTIGE DU M?DECIN DIMINUE-T-IL ?

https://www.revuedesdeuxmondes.fr/ar...-diminue-t-il/

bien s?r, il faut d?guster cela, avec ceci : D?nuement

https://www.jim.fr/medecin/debats/im..._semaine.phtml

On le proposerait, on serait critiqu?, mais comme elles le font seules!!!

c'est une ?poque formidable ...​

 

[kiwibird]

http://www.c-jcm.com/html/2020/1/20200201.htm Very interesting article on guidelines for nutrition for patients with coronavirus. From Chinese Journal of Clinical Medicine. Is it a chicken and egg thing here - with a problem with Protein S deficiency leading to thrombosis - and how is Protein S - Vitamin K dependent? Seems counterintuitive - but in the list of medicines and nutritional supplements in this article - they recommend vitamin k supplements!

It has also been bugging me - almost every photo of patients in China have an IV attached - and yet in Italy in the quarantine areas there are lots of people on army cots who do not even seem to have a jug of water to hand. Also here (UK) if people are in self isolation because they are symptomatic they will certainly not be popping in their own IV. Is there clinical evidence from China showing the IV helped? For certain hydration and fluid intake is always important with Pneumonia. Did the Chinese practitioners add anything to the IV's? Has anyone else any input?

 

[kiwibird]

I also never saw any compression socks on patients in Chinese hospitals - and yet very early on the Italian hospitals were using compression socks...

 

[kiwibird]

April 24th, 2020, 04:38 PM
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...clots-n1190491
Doctors report uptick in surprising coronavirus complication: dangerous blood clots

Blood clots are not usually associated with respiratory viruses.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/114620...lthy-patients/
Coronavirus causes blood clots and sudden strokes in young, healthy patients, doctors warn

Why are so many COVID-19 patients also seeing blood clots?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-...ry?id=70131612
Health experts have been confounded by this latest trend.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/...ronavirus-tpa/
Doctors treating the sickest Covid-19 patients have zeroed in on a new phenomenon: Some people have developed widespread blood clots, their lungs peppered with tiny blockages that prevent oxygen from pumping into the bloodstream and body.

A number of doctors are now trying to blast those clots with tPA, or tissue plasminogen activator, an antithrombotic drug typically reserved for treating strokes and heart attacks. Other doctors are eyeing the blood thinner heparin as a potential way to prevent clotting before it starts.

Without a rigorous study, though, it’s impossible to know the potential risks or benefits of tPA, blood thinners, or other drugs — or what makes a difference. Until more robust research gets underway, the body of evidence now is a handful of case reports and anecdotal observations on the use of drugs to combat clots.

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...ratory-failure From Tetano's post:tiphat:

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4 comments

• 
  #225.1
  Supa commented
  April 25th, 2020, 07:55 PM
  Clots are probably added to by silent hypoxia from collapsed sacks and its a spiral down from there. https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0802115657.htm
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  #225.2
  kiwibird commented
  April 26th, 2020, 04:22 PM
  Thank you Supa - food for thought.
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  #225.3
  kiwibird commented
  Today, 04:15 AM
  http://www.c-jcm.com/html/2020/1/20200201.htm Very interesting article on guidelines for nutrition for patients with coronavirus. From Chinese Journal of Clinical Medicine. Is it a chicken and egg thing here - with a problem with Protein S deficiency leading to thrombosis - and how is Protein S - Vitamin K dependent? Seems counterintuitive - but in the list of medicines and nutritional supplements in this article - they recommend vitamin k supplements!
  
  It has also been bugging me - almost every photo of patients in China have an IV attached - and yet in Italy in the quarantine areas there are lots of people on army cots who do not even seem to have a jug of water to hand. Also here (UK) if people are in self isolation because they are symptomatic they will certainly not be popping in their own IV. Is there clinical evidence from China showing the IV helped? For certain hydration and fluid intake is always important with Pneumonia. Did the Chinese practitioners add anything to the IV's? Has anyone else any input?
  • Edit
  • Flag
  
  #225.4
  kiwibird commented
  Today, 04:17 AM
  I also never saw any compression socks on patients in Chinese hospitals - and yet very early on the Italian hospitals were using compression socks...

 

[kiwibird]

Sorry - this is a very unprofessional way to pop this post to make it current - wasn't sure how to do it.... but it was languishing three pages back and this really has been bugging me - the thrombosis thing... - and I wanted to make sure the comments stayed with the bulk of the post..

 

[Emily]

Clotting problems seem a common problem in several diseases in severe cases, including influenza.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.5694/j.1326-5377.1971.tb92529.x
DISSEMINATED INTRAVASCULAR CLOTTING COMPLICATING VIRAL PNEUMONIA DUE TO INFLUENZA

 

[kiwibird]

Interesting - and troubling that they had poor outcomes. I wonder if we should start a new discussion just about this subject. I noted in Sally's post on the problems children are having that they are discussing the problem with strokes and clots in young people.

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...4615-coronavirus-syndrome-seen-in-uk-children

 

[Emily]

I wonder if vaping has something to do with this if there really is an unusual number of young adults having these unusual problems.

 

[Ronan Kelly]

"April 27, 2020

ACEP-AAEM Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation
The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.

COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of ACEP and AAEM are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. ACEP and AAEM strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Messihi as a basis for policy and decision making."
https://www.acep.org/corona/COVID-1...-joint-statement-on-physician-misinformation/

 

[JJackson]

They did not do a fantastic job limiting spread to the rest of the country from Hubei. We don't know much about the rest of the country. They did not allow much information out about anything. We know only about a few large cities. Silence is usually a bad indicator when it comes to China.

This is your opinion based on your distrust of anything China says because it is China saying it.

The comment about the government still closing cities, venues, etc. is to point out that their situation is not over and that they have not replicated South Korea's method or success.

China pursued containment only after letting the disease run wild for a couple of months which seeded Hubei province (and who knows where else). The local government allowing a huge banquet attended by 40,000 people on January 19th (when 62 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 at a local Wuhan hospital) is not "containment". link

China is not claiming the situation is over only that they are trying to detect and squash new cases before they become unmanageable which they seem to be doing very successfully. They are not trying to replicate S Korea they have their own system which is giving better numbers than S Korea's. If you start by assuming everything China says is a lie and everything S Korea says is the truth then you can make the numbers say what you like. The banquet was a mistake but on the 19th Jan no one had a very clear picture of what was going on.

I know they lied about their case counts from the beginning because they punished the doctors who told everyone about the cases they were seeing at their Wuhan hospital in late December. Everyone knows about this. link

Even I know that it is against the law in China to start spreading unverified rumors on the internet. That there turned out be some truth to them, with the benefit of hindsight, would not help them. HCWs in the US are talking to the press on condition of anonymity because they know they are in danger of losing their jobs, they should clear everything with their employer's press office. The captain of an aircraft carrier who was not being listened to by his superiors also lost his position for not following procedures. They all knew there were risks to whistle blowing this is not a China specific situation.

The change in case counts in the U.S. has ADDED cases to the total. Not taken cases away. (i.e. adding nursing homes and jails, etc.)

China has vastly increase their total cases over time, as we will all have to do. They did change their case definitions on Feb.12th as they did not have PCR capacity so changed to accept CT scans into their numbers which caused a one day quadrupling of their case count. Once they had PCR capacity they returned to PCR confirmation and tested samples assumed positive based on CT, it turned out a few of these tested negative and were removed from the totals but the vast majority stayed as positive.

There is no comparison between traditional Chinese medicine to anything in the West. Maybe it prevented the roughly 2 million missing cases. If this is true China must announce this now. Every day thousands are dying.

If China has a cure they should loudly tell the world now and present the evidence!

In the West we call it herbal medicine and it is a $100 Billion industry globally. The 2 million missing cases are a number you have invented based on the assumption China could not possibly have managed to contain their epidemic more effectively than us. If I have misunderstood where this number came from I apologise but I have seen nothing like this anywhere else and nothing to support it based on the level of free movement and economic activity in China. Neither China or I have ever asserted that TCM has stopped or cured any cases or that there are any unreported cases to cure. The draconian measures taken by China are what has saved them from the population levels of infection seen in those countries suffering from western hubris.