Discussion thread IV - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

[kiwibird]

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...clots-n1190491
Doctors report uptick in surprising coronavirus complication: dangerous blood clots

Blood clots are not usually associated with respiratory viruses.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/114620...lthy-patients/
Coronavirus causes blood clots and sudden strokes in young, healthy patients, doctors warn

Why are so many COVID-19 patients also seeing blood clots?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-...ry?id=70131612
Health experts have been confounded by this latest trend.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/...ronavirus-tpa/

Doctors treating the sickest Covid-19 patients have zeroed in on a new phenomenon: Some people have developed widespread blood clots, their lungs peppered with tiny blockages that prevent oxygen from pumping into the bloodstream and body.

A number of doctors are now trying to blast those clots with tPA, or tissue plasminogen activator, an antithrombotic drug typically reserved for treating strokes and heart attacks. Other doctors are eyeing the blood thinner heparin as a potential way to prevent clotting before it starts.

Without a rigorous study, though, it’s impossible to know the potential risks or benefits of tPA, blood thinners, or other drugs — or what makes a difference. Until more robust research gets underway, the body of evidence now is a handful of case reports and anecdotal observations on the use of drugs to combat clots.

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...ratory-failure From Tetano's post:tiphat:

 

[Supa]

Clots are probably added to by silent hypoxia from collapsed sacks and its a spiral down from there. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180802115657.htm

 

[Shiloh]

Interesting article on superspreader events by a layman: https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/co...n-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/

 

[kiwibird]

Thank you Supa - food for thought.

 

[gsgs]

interesting discussion in Germany :

by some (disputed) calculation
R0 went down _before_ the lockdown and then didn't change after lockdown

so the lockdown was maybe useless , and the COVID reduction could have
come from news-induced traveling reduction as shown by
google and apple mobility charts

in German :
https://politicaldatascience.blogspo...tehen-und.html

 

[Pathfinder]

Health 21:31, 27-Apr-2020

Experts: Little chance novel coronavirus will die out in summer

Updated 22:52, 27-Apr-2020

By Ma Ke

There's little chance of the novel coronavirus, that has caused the COVID-19 pandemic, dying out over the summer, and it's possible that it will become a common virus before a cure is found, said top Chinese microbiology and virology scientists at a press briefing on Monday.

Wang Guiqiang, director of the Infectious Diseases Department at Peking University First Hospital, said ,although the virus can be killed when the temperature reaches 56 degrees Celsius for longer than 30 minutes, the temperature in summer is not high enough to kill it.

He also warned the pandemic could become a seasonal disease. He said the family of seasonal flu viruses already contains coronaviruses, just other subtypes besides SARS-Cov-2. So it's possible that COVID-19 will break out again, like other coronaviruses, in autumn and winter.

Doctor Jin Qi from the Institute of Medical Biology at China Academy of Medical Sciences agreed, saying the colonization possibility of COVID-19 in human society is high.
...
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-04-...clinical-trial-in-China-Q2klS6xa8g/index.html

 

[sharon sanders]

It has been suggested that I am anti-China and do not criticize the U.S. or the U.K.

Well - I am responding - and publicly.

I am not anti-China. My comments about their reporting, their candor - their truthfulness - is a conclusion I have made after following their disease situation for 14+ years. I know nothing about the politics of China except it appears to be a single party rule where human rights are routinely violated. Also - they do not seem to have any pretense of a free press. There is no 4th estate there that independently verifies government claims.

As to the U.K. I do not know enough to make any conclusion about their truthfulness. I assume like all governments there is the usual amount of self preservation in all of their decisions. On the scale of human rights practice it is my impression that the U.K. is better than many countries but has some work to do like all countries.

As to the U.S. - Do not get me started. I could literally fill this forum with my complaints. From A to Z. I think the U.S. response to the COVID-19 crisis has been shockingly bad considering that we are the "richest" nation in the world. I also think that the U.S. - while more fair than many nations - also violates human rights.

I have said for many years that the U.S. statistics on many different levels are an "at least" situation. The national FluView report is an example. It is a collection of data that feeds up from the individual states. This causes a delay in real time reporting and depends on 50+ inputs. It gives only a general idea of where we have been.

I criticize other U.S. numbers too. For instance, I publicly stated in 2017 that I was not going to keep track of Zika cases in Florida because I did not believe the reports:

Florida - DoH Zika Updates 2017 ...look at the numbers with a critical eye

"I have not consistently posted this information because I find it hard to believe. In my opinion the case total is low due to the extreme proliferation of mosquitoes in Florida. It appears pregnant women account for roughly 71% of the total case number. It appears that routine testing for Zika is highlighting the number of pregnant women. So how are so many travelers to Florida testing positive? Do they land at the airport and then go to the doctor after a couple of days? How many of these travelers are on extended trips? Is it possible some of them acquired the illness locally?

Something just seems "off" here.

And if the Florida numbers are not accurate then the CDC numbers are not either."

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...938#post778938​

And human rights violations made by the U.S. government? This is a book. We have started wars. We incarcerate a huge percent of our population......a long list....

But do we have organ farms like it is alleged that China has? No. I do not believe the U.K. operates organ farms either.


"Hamid Sabi called for urgent action as he presented the findings of the China Tribunal, an independent panel set up to examine the issue, which concluded in June that China’s organ harvesting amounted to crimes against humanity.

Beijing has repeatedly denied accusations by human rights researchers and scholars that it forcibly takes organs from prisoners of conscience and said it stopped using organs from executed prisoners in 2015." link


As to the U.S. case counting as compared to China in this pandemic: The U.S. case count is off because the testing situation is not efficient and many people are asymptomatic. There are exponentially more cases in the U.S. than has been reported. Do I think that someone at the top of the CDC - like in China - is approving all case counts before a confirmation is declared on each individual case? No. Do I think there are problems at the state levels with counting? Yes. For example, it appears some states are not including all of the probable nursing homes cases and deaths.

Is the U.S. government manipulating the various many case/death counts calculated by the media and academia? I think no. Ask L.A. Times, New York Times, Johns Hopkins, others.

Is China? Yes. It is well known that the China government controls the press and also censors many in academia.

Look at the comparisons (JHU is source for cases and deaths) in reported numbers:

China population = 1,439,323,776
China COVID-19 cases to date = 83,912
China deaths = 4.637
1 in 17,153 people infected


US population = 331,002,651
US COVID-19 cases to date = 967,585
US deaths = 54,931
1 in 342 people infected


UK population = 67,886,011
UK COVID-19 cases to date = 154,038
UK deaths = 20,795
1 in 440 people infected


If you use the average of people infected in the US and UK [(342 + 440)/2] of 391 and then apply to China's population, the real reported COVID-19 case count in China should be 3,681,135.

There is a huge difference between 3,681,135 and 83,912. It would appear that China has not been truthful in the reporting of their case count based on the actual numbers in the US and UK.

My conclusions are not political. I am looking at the science and the math.

 

[bertrand789]

Pourquoi te justifier, ta neutralit? est l?gendaire. En revanche, ce qui peut ?tre indiqu? et argument? c'est que les chiffres sans le contexte, c'est peu ?clairant.
Pour ?clairer ces propos, dans une culture comme la su?doise la distanciation sociale est culturelle, mais qui le sait ?

 

[sharon sanders]

Pourquoi te justifier, ta neutralit? est l?gendaire. En revanche, ce qui peut ?tre indiqu? et argument? c'est que les chiffres sans le contexte, c'est peu ?clairant.
Pour ?clairer ces propos, dans une culture comme la su?doise la distanciation sociale est culturelle, mais qui le sait ?

Sweden population = 10,220,000
Sweden COVID-19 cases to date = 18,926
Sweden deaths = 2,274
1 in 540 people infected.


If you use the Sweden percentage and apply to China then the reported cases in China should be 2,665,414. This is also nowhere near the 83,912 figure reported by China.

According to official reporting North Korea has done the best job of handling the pandemic with 0 reported domestic cases. link


Here is a list of countries that are leaders in the world for having good public health systems:


Finland = 1 in 1,180 infected

Norway = 1 in 710 infected

Sweden = 1 in 540 infected

Switzerland = 1 in 291 infected

Canada = 1 in 800 infected

Denmark = 1 in 651 infected

Germany = 1 in 530 infected

The Netherlands = 1 in 446 infected


Compare to China and make your own assumptions. Add more countries and then average all of them...then apply to China. There will still be the same conclusions.

No politics. No bias.

Math.

 

[JJackson]

If you use the average of people infected in the US and UK [(342 + 440)/2] of 391 and then apply to China's population, the real reported COVID-19 case count in China should be 3,681,135.

There is a huge difference between 3,681,135 and 83,912. It would appear that China has not been truthful in the reporting of their case count based on the actual numbers in the US and UK.

My conclusions are not political. I am looking at the science and the math.

Why would you assume the same percentage of people in each country have been infected. China shut down massively, and early, so spread was contained. We did not. They also used their massive surveillance system to monitor their population and enforce quarantine and for contact tracing. It is not a system I would like to live under but for controlling an epidemic it is very handy. The number of deaths per infected case is about the same which seems a reasonable metric.

In case anyone was in any doubt I am the person who queried FluTrackers impartiality in dealing with China. It is not a criticism of Sharon per se but of the tone of the coverage on the site overall. I hate censorship but believe we should all be careful in what we choose to re-post and link to, there is a lot of very partisan, biased reporting along with outright misinformation and propaganda out there from all sides. I am concerned that MSM is doing a poor job in fact checking and we should be doing a better job not letting that get reflected here.

 

[sharon sanders]

Why would you assume the same percentage of people in each country have been infected. China shut down massively, and early, so spread was contained. We did not. They also used their massive surveillance system to monitor their population and enforce quarantine and for contact tracing. It is not a system I would like to live under but for controlling an epidemic it is very handy. The number of deaths per infected case is about the same which seems a reasonable metric.

In case anyone was in any doubt I am the person who queried FluTrackers impartiality in dealing with China. It is not a criticism of Sharon per se but of the tone of the coverage on the site overall. I hate censorship but believe we should all be careful in what we choose to re-post and link to, there is a lot of very partisan, biased reporting along with outright misinformation and propaganda out there from all sides. I am concerned that MSM is doing a poor job in fact checking and we should be doing a better job not letting that get reflected here.

Sure. China's system of control is much more convenient for a pandemic than in countries with less control. Even allowing for that it seems the counts are off. If you average the 8 countries who have much better public health systems than China (in post #231) which offsets some of China's population controls advantage the real case count that should have been reported in China is 2,238,451.

Even divide that by half = 1,119,225.

Still no where near the official count of 83,912. And if you have engineered a lesser case count, then you can apply a world average death rate, you can come up with a death count that fits expectations.

Again, the science and math will reveal the truth. There will be many studies and, I hope, national and international inquiries.

We owe this to everyone who has died. A full accounting so we can document for future generations how to better deal with this situation. So they did not die in vain.

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

"They started with the Marion Correctional Institution, which houses 2,500 prisoners in north central Ohio, many of them older with pre-existing health conditions. After testing 2,300 inmates for the coronavirus, they were shocked. Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95% had no symptoms".


Thoughts?

 

[sharon sanders]

"They started with the Marion Correctional Institution, which houses 2,500 prisoners in north central Ohio, many of them older with pre-existing health conditions. After testing 2,300 inmates for the coronavirus, they were shocked. Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95% had no symptoms".


Thoughts?

We have a thread on this here.

I think it is a travesty. It is clear by now that group living situations are a huge risk factor. We knew this since February in China. Then there was the Diamond Princess situation that demonstrated how fast this disease can spread in close quarters. The first Washington state nursing home outbreak also showed us what can happen. There should have been mass temporary release of non-violent offenders. Or maybe spread out in FEMA camps to continue their sentences? Violent offenders could been then placed though out in the prison cells newly vacated by the non-violent offenders. We can build temporary hospitals. What about temporary prisons for low risk inmates? There are so many possible scenarios.

Nursing home patients also need to be spread out. Moved into hotels, temporarily, as available - with their caretakers.

This is not rocket science. We know the most effective "treatment" is prevention. And that is distancing coupled with cleanliness.

 

[JJackson]

But these are bunch of European democracies that did not attempt anything like China. S. Korea's population again did not follow the same route as either China or Europe and never locked down like China yet with a population of 50M ish and 10,700 cases they are 1 in 4672. Should I assume they are lying like China? By the math you are using they should have at least 10 times as many cases.
I would argue a more reasonable explanation for the numbers is China were frightened by the explosion of numbers in Wuhan in January and their epidemiologist told them to shut the area down until they worked out what was going on. The big difference was the authorities listened to the science and used the full power of the state apparatus and never let it spread wildly over the whole country. The UK and US both thought if they let it burn they could cope and herd immunity would come to the rescue. When the epidemiologists and health care professionals finally managed to get the politicians to listen wide spread community transmission had already destroyed containment.
Another assumption is that the European countries had better health care systems. Over 80% of Chinese patients got some traditional Chinese medicine and we have no idea how much this helped, or hindered. The assumption hi-tech expensive pharmaceutical based medicine is more effective is just an assumption as there is no reliable data on any eastern or western medicine yet.

And if you have engineered a lesser case count, then you can apply a world average death rate, you can come up with a death count that fits expectations.

I am sorry but you can't. We could engineer a rate to match China, but not the other way around, as they had already had their first wave and published their data.

 

[sharon sanders]

But these are bunch of European democracies that did not attempt anything like China. S. Korea's population again did not follow the same route as either China or Europe and never locked down like China yet with a population of 50M ish and 10,700 cases they are 1 in 4672. Should I assume they are lying like China? By the math you are using they should have at least 10 times as many cases.
I would argue a more reasonable explanation for the numbers is China were frightened by the explosion of numbers in Wuhan in January and their epidemiologist told them to shut the area down until they worked out what was going on. The big difference was the authorities listened to the science and used the full power of the state apparatus and never let it spread wildly over the whole country. The UK and US both thought if they let it burn they could cope and herd immunity would come to the rescue. When the epidemiologists and health care professionals finally managed to get the politicians to listen wide spread community transmission had already destroyed containment.
Another assumption is that the European countries had better health care systems. Over 80% of Chinese patients got some traditional Chinese medicine and we have no idea how much this helped, or hindered. The assumption hi-tech expensive pharmaceutical based medicine is more effective is just an assumption as there is no reliable data on any eastern or western medicine yet.


I am sorry but you can't. We could engineer a rate to match China, but not the other way around, as they had already had their first wave and published their data.

We can argue about this all day long. I am not going to change my mind. You do not understand my point. From the first minute China was engineering their case counts. Then they reset they way they count a few times. All along the way they have undercounted. Now - yes - they are stuck with the numbers they have published to date. Oh wait..they did add a bunch cases...and then they subtracted them again. I believe it is all engineered - as they went along.

You can't compare South Korea to any other country. They do a fantastic job. They had early and effective testing. They required masks - everyone is wearing a version of N95. N95 type masks are much more effective than surgical masks for prevention. Great mask supply preparation! They did great contact tracing. And they quarantined tens of thousands of contacts of confirmed cases - many of them healthy. They did some school class size limits and work-at-home initiatives.

China did not have early and effective testing. Watch the videos of people crying when they can't get tested or treated at any hospital. No one is wearing an N95 type mask except health care workers. They are wearing surgical masks. China gave up on detailed contact tracing and, instead, closed whole cities because the situation was so out of control. They are still closing neighborhoods and areas of some cities.

Ummm....Chinese traditional medicine....ok....on par with the health systems of European countries? So you are saying that China has great case and death numbers as compared to the US and Western Europe due to Chinese traditional medicine. Well - I wish they would tell everyone what it is then! Please....hopefully they will tell everyone how the traditional Chinese hospitals and treatments achieved this excellence as soon as possible!

JJackson - honestly...this is ridiculous. I am not responding anymore.

 

[Steffi]

#234 USA had the S-strain that seemed to be much milder than the L-Strain

 

[bertrand789]

Concernant la m?decine traditionnelle, ils ont dit 80 ? 90 % en ont re?u . Ils ont indiqu? les produits recommand?s, mais, ? la question, comment g?rent-ils les stocks pour une telle masse de personnes, je ne trouve rien ...

Je sais bien qu'ils ont une tr?s grande exp?rience des probl?mes, mais cela repr?sente des volumes important. Dans un autre message vu les engagements au niveau O.M.S , en 2022, ils se sont engag?s ? fournir le d?tail des m?dicaments traditionnels utilis?s. Donc en 2022, les donn?es existerons. Comme en g?n?ral on doit anticiper un peu pour faire , je me demande si les donn?es n'existent pas d?j? . Mais comme le r?glement ne l'impose pas, pourquoi feraient-ils avant, dans le contexte actuel ?

 

[bertrand789]

Compl?ment, j'ai critiqu? une fois, certaines publications chinoises, qui ne notifient pas l'usage ou non de produits de m?decine traditionnelle chinoise.
Si je n'avais aucun respect, pour ce type de m?decine, je pourrai ?crire : ? quoi bon la signaler, c'est comme de l'hom?opathie, mais ce n'est pas mon cas. Les publications cit?es respectent la m?decine dite normale de l'O.M.S, ? ce stade.

Rien ne les contraint, avant 2022, de publier ce qui a ?t? et ce qui est, sauf s'ils veulent redorer leur image qui, ? ce stade, est gravement ?corn?e , vu la partialit? ou fausset? des faits publi?s.

 

[JJackson]

We can argue about this all day long. I am not going to change my mind either - unless someone can give me a good reason to.

You can't compare China to any other country. They did a fantastic job at limiting spread to the rest of the country from Hubei.

No one is wearing an N95 type mask except health care workers - good that is as it should be.

They are still closing neighborhoods and areas of some cities - which is keeping their daily numbers easily manageable.

So you are saying that China has great case and death numbers as compared to the US and Western Europe due to Chinese traditional medicine. No that is not what I said. I said you can not do a direct comparison between treatment in China and in Europe because nearly all Chinese patients got a treatment no one in Europe got and we do not know what effect that had. I also said the crude CFR was about the same in China and the US but the very different % of the population who have caught it to date is due to China pursuing containment while we opted to skip that step and go straight to mitigation. S Korea's numbers look like China's because they also pursued containment, albeit by a different route.

My main point is why start with the assumption that China is lying when it changes the way it counts cases "From the first minute China was engineering their case counts. Then they reset they way they count a few times. All along the way they have undercounted." but the UK and US have also changed their numbers as they add in deaths in nursing homes, deaths in the community and amend the way COVID with co-morbidities are counted. All 3 countries have under-counted and for the same reason - testing capacity is never going to match viral exponential growth.

 

[bertrand789]

Et comme tout le monde a envie de comprendre ce qui se passe et s'est pass?, on va continuer ? en apprendre tous les jours pendant un bon moment. Pour la petite histoire, la Chine se bat depuis bien longtemps pour imposer la m?decine traditionnelle chinoise, notamment au niveau O.M.S, ce qui va advenir en 2022, alors pourquoi ne pas leur demander leur avis avec courtoisie ?
La courtoise, cela permet bien des choses...