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Discussion thread IV - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

I don't believe the Chinese #s..just as I don't believe Iran's. Afghanistan's, Iraq's etc. What they report in China are pneumonia deaths. What about all the heart/stroke deaths induced by the virus? What about the early days, when peeps died at home? If China was so forthright in telling the world what was going on, they would have had WHO on the ground immediately. Instead the team sent there waited weeks before going to Wuhan. I suspect they were escorted and showed the team, what they wanted to show them...doubt if they were left to interview HCWs without an escort. Sure, draconian measures worked there, BUT, do you really want to see yourself locked in your apartment by the state for months on end...arrested for photographing what is happening in the streets and hospitals? Having your posts deleted on the site, because you have an opinion contrary to the state?
 
This is your opinion based on your distrust of anything China says because it is China saying it.

China is not claiming the situation is over only that they are trying to detect and squash new cases before they become unmanageable which they seem to be doing very successfully. They are not trying to replicate S Korea they have their own system which is giving better numbers than S Korea's. If you start by assuming everything China says is a lie and everything S Korea says is the truth then you can make the numbers say what you like. The banquet was a mistake but on the 19th Jan no one had a very clear picture of what was going on.

Even I know that it is against the law in China to start spreading unverified rumors on the internet. That there turned out be some truth to them, with the benefit of hindsight, would not help them. HCWs in the US are talking to the press on condition of anonymity because they know they are in danger of losing their jobs, they should clear everything with their employer's press office. The captain of an aircraft carrier who was not being listened to by his superiors also lost his position for not following procedures. They all knew there were risks to whistle blowing this is not a China specific situation.

China has vastly increase their total cases over time, as we will all have to do. They did change their case definitions on Feb.12th as they did not have PCR capacity so changed to accept CT scans into their numbers which caused a one day quadrupling of their case count. Once they had PCR capacity they returned to PCR confirmation and tested samples assumed positive based on CT, it turned out a few of these tested negative and were removed from the totals but the vast majority stayed as positive.
In the West we call it herbal medicine and it is a $100 Billion industry globally. The 2 million missing cases are a number you have invented based on the assumption China could not possibly have managed to contain their epidemic more effectively than us. If I have misunderstood where this number came from I apologise but I have seen nothing like this anywhere else and nothing to support it based on the level of free movement and economic activity in China. Neither China or I have ever asserted that TCM has stopped or cured any cases or that there are any unreported cases to cure. The draconian measures taken by China are what has saved them from the population levels of infection seen in those countries suffering from western hubris.


We all know what happened. You are correct that I do not believe anything from the Chinese government unless there is independent verification. I apply this standard to every government. In some societies there is a free press which helps. China does not have a free press.

I did a rough calculation on how many cases China should have reported based on the experience of 8 other countries (all of which have the best health care systems in the world). If anything, China should have a higher amount of cases per 100,000. Even when I halved the calculated amount which equals about 1 million cases - China still falls short of that figure by 900k cases. Rounded. I don't care if no one else has done an estimate of the real numbers of cases in China.

The real death figure will never be known because all dead people were cremated.

The West is has largely been locked down for a month which are draconian measures (except Sweden who does have some controls). China never imposed extreme draconian measures by locking down their entire country, and yet, they are claiming control of the disease (except for the occasional spark caused by imported cases) and reporting very low numbers per 100k. As to 80% of people taking traditional medicine to prevent the types of numbers that we are seeing in Western Europe - great! I still am asking the Chinese government to declare what this miracle treatment combo is. Since they did not lock down the entire country, it must be some fantastic discovery.

If you think you can deflect the issues with China in this outbreak by slamming the U.S. - hey...criticize the U.S. response. I don't care and I don't defend the U.S. You will not get any reaction from me. Cuz, you see, I am not an agent for the U.S. government. I am also not an agent of the W.H.O. So have at it. Make a list of everything that the U.S. has done wrong in this outbreak. It is a huge list. You can call for hearings in the U.S. and I will 100% support that. I want to know what has happened here so that it never happens again. A critical analysis of the U.S. response does not make anything China did go away.

So today you claim China's performance is even better than South Korea? I have no response to that.

It does not matter what you and I think JJackson because an international court will be convened and all of the issues will be exposed.
 
buh buh buh my china...:cool:


(unconfirmed)- Reading material for middle schoolers in China. Says the virus originated in America and that China was "too strong" for the virus.

:tiphat:The middle school student's newspaper published "The New Crown Virus Cries": China is too ruthless, I want to go back to the United States


http://dailynews.sina.com April 27, 2020 23:37 Phoenix Network

share to
wechat.png


Last month, the children's song "A Fantastic Cabin Hospital" was screened online, which made many people goose bumps after watching it.

Fortunately, under the attack of public opinion, this thunderous children's song finally failed to enter the campus and was sung by the children, which made parents feel relieved.

Unexpectedly, a more mysterious and more horrifying work than “Traffic in the Cabin Hospital” appeared again – it was also printed in the newspaper of the middle school student with the largest circulation in China and spread across many campuses.




Let's take a look at a few sentences in this poem "Flashing blind eyes":

"I'm leaving / I'm going back to the United States / I'll be home when I return to the United States ... I regret to come to China."

"I can't mix it up here."

I do n’t know if the new crown virus has cried, but I dare to assert that after reading this horrible child poem, many parents are probably crying.

Since the epidemic, various masterpieces have been published continuously, such as "Thank you, crown-shaped king", "The blood in the eyes of the secretary and the county magistrate has been woven into the flower of the spring", but these wonderful texts have little influence. Instead, it becomes a laughing stock in vain.

However, "New Crown Virus finally cried" is different. The "Secondary Student Guide" that published this work belongs to the national secondary publication and has a huge circulation in the country-note that "secondary" is currently the highest level of newspapers in supplementary education.

One can imagine how many children are reading this work and eagerly draw "spiritual food" from it.

In my opinion, this poem that anthropomorphizes the new crown virus and is written in the first person is indeed "poisonous".

It is more terrifying than similar articles like "No XXX, I don't know China is so powerful", because it is not only full of self-satisfaction and empathy, but also provokes opposition and hatred to cultivate children's sense of hatred; "Congratulations on the epidemic in the United States" banner, it is children who are poisoned.

This kind of "poetry" can actually be published on the regular teaching aids, and enter the campus with majesty, which is a slur for the word "education".


The Indian poet Tagore once said: "The purpose of education should be to convey the breath of life to mankind." Education should make people feel good, open their minds, and help their children grow in character.

The "Middle School Student Herald" published the purpose of "seeking high, accurate, realistic, and new", but now, the text it published easily crossed the value bottom line of a civilized society.

More precisely, the educational orientation promoted by this "poem" is not to train modern citizens who are caring, rational and respectful of common sense, but to guide students to be right and wrong and to bias them in their three views.:tiphat:https://translate.google.com/transla...ml&prev=search
 
Last edited by a moderator:
China is your friend:magnify:

....One can imagine how many children are reading this work and eagerly draw "spiritual food" from it.

In my opinion, this poem that anthropomorphizes the new crown virus and is written in the first person is indeed "poisonous".

It is more terrifying than similar articles like "No XXX, I don't know China is so powerful", because it is not only full of self-satisfaction and empathy, but also provokes opposition and hatred to cultivate children's sense of hatred; "Congratulations on the epidemic in the United States" banner, it is children who are poisoned.

This kind of "poetry" can actually be published on the regular teaching aids, and enter the campus with majesty, which is a slur for the word "education".

The Indian poet Tagore once said: "The purpose of education should be to convey the breath of life to mankind." Education should make people feel good, open their minds, and help their children grow in character.

The "Middle School Student Herald" published the purpose of "seeking high, accurate, realistic, and new", but now, the text it published easily crossed the value bottom line of a civilized society.

More precisely, the educational orientation promoted by this "poem" is not to train modern citizens who are caring, rational and respectful of common sense, but to guide students to be right and wrong and to bias them in their three views.

To a certain extent, it is precisely this kind of soil that is deeply rooted in "inciting national hatred". Only then will there be those who are happily blaming the alien disaster, and only then will there be "celebration of the epidemic in the United States" and wish Japan "the epidemic sailing smoothly" The big red banner-these practices are anti-human in nature, and are contrary to the community consciousness of "commonly fighting the epidemic and targeting the virus".

In the final analysis, disaster is disaster, and there should not be any praise and beautification. The distorted works of three views describing disasters as good things should not appear in a newspaper entering the campus.

At the moment, how should this article distorting human nature be published in the "Secondary Student Guide", the relevant parties should give an explanation to all parents....:tiphat:https://translate.google.com/transla...ml&prev=search
 
If you want to start a new discussion about this, please do. I can copy all of the existing posts on this subject to the new thread.
 
I don't care what other experts and scientists trust. gsgs - you are a probability guy. What is the probability that the Chinese numbers are correct given the experiences of other countries with outbreaks that started in the January/February time frame?
 
Yes, group living situations are a huge risk factor. Very bad and sad situations in nursing homes.
But I was wondering: so many a-symptomatic here?

Also in this study they found a very high % a-symptomatic: "Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Boston"

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765378

Followup studies of the same people could give some answers?
 
the issues _are_ being exposed in all the papers at medrxiv,biorxiv as well as
in the traditional journals (but delayed) now already (ask Tetano)

don't be misled by the Trump anti-China campaign
 
If you'd like to start a thread on this topic, kiwi, it sound like a good idea to me. I found a paper that reported the first case of influenza associated stroke in a child back in 2004. So something seems amiss in the modern immune response.
 
ACEP and AAEM seem like very fine organizations, Ronan, but their focus is strictly emergency medicine and Drs. Erickson and Messihi covered a lot more ground than that. They did disclose they owned urgent care clinics. Does that automatically condemn them that they want to provide needed care to communities? I hope people listen to their opinions and form their own conclusions.
 
Beware of CCP propaganda.

https://www.propublica.org/article/...anda-machine-then-let-it-loose-on-coronavirus
How China Built a Twitter Propaganda Machine Then Let It Loose on Coronavirus

ProPublica analyzed thousands of fake and hijacked Twitter accounts to understand how covert Chinese propaganda spreads around the globe.

...
Another account calling itself an “international cultural exchange” company offered 1,700 renminbi (around $240) per post to the Chinese Australian artist Badiucao. The political dissident has nearly 70,000 followers on Twitter. After a day of feigned negotiations with the company, he obtained and shared with ProPublica a sample of what he would be asked to post — a 15-second propaganda clip. The video sought to show that the government defeated the coronavirus and everything is back on track. “This is what Chinese propagandists call a ‘positive energy wave,’” he said. He didn’t get the name of the company. It ultimately declined to provide a contract, replying: “Upon client review, your posting style does not fit this promotional topic.”
Badiucao is confident, based on their interactions, that the company he was communicating with was working for the Chinese government. When asked why they would contact such an outspoken opponent of the regime, he speculated that the company used social media monitoring tools to identify their targets (evidence shows they reached out to Chinese-speaking Twitter users having more than 10,000 followers). But the company seemed unfamiliar with the diaspora community on Twitter, he said: “They’re marketing pros, but they don’t have a nuanced political understanding.”

Recently exposed to the coronavirus himself, Badiucao spoke to ProPublica from self-isolation in Melbourne. “I resettled in Australia because I wanted a free and safe environment. I believed in the democratic system here,” he reflected, “but with the virus, we’re not even safe if we move away. And just like the coronavirus, values can be contagious as well.
 
I did see their videos and have two key criticisms of the foundations they built their arguments on. 1. They took tests in hospitals in an area where testing was hard to come by (where only sick people would go or who thought they had been exposed) and then extrapolated those results to the population at large to get a prevalence.. It doesn't work this way, as most on here will know. You should not take a high risk sample and then apply it to a general population. 2. They tried to equate each single test with a single individual. Every case (or clinically suspect case) will have multiple tests over the course of their diagnosis or treatment. No adjustment was made for this nor acknowledgement of this limitation. Instead I saw two people who were quite desperate as the cessation of non-covid care is likely hurting their business quite badly. I admit I stopped watching after this, as this was the foundation of their arguments.
 
Vibrant, I get what you are saying about their sample, but in the interview or in a later one with another station they mentioned this study https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 and Giesecke's opinion https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...secke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html
They may be concerned about their business but their business is caring for human medical needs. There are other health problems besides one new infectious disease and they are all impacted by job losses and stress.
 
Stanford (I had been led to understand) withdrew this study for similar reasons to my comments above - partly recruitment, (which was done via Facebook) and the very poor sensitivity of the test concerned, which meant that there were (potentially) a large number of false positives... only 60 out of 3600 tested psoitive, which was well within the margins of error for the test concerned. There are better measures out there, that give a very different slant. I certainly agree that standard medicien needs to continue, and as fast as possible... ways need to be found to ensure that non-covid clinics dont get contaminated. That could lead to horrible situations too.
 
My opinion that China consistently down plays their disease events was formed about 12 years ago and I have observed that they have continued this methodology. In addition, they have systematically dismantled any semblance of a free press over that time. My opinion has nothing to do with any presidential campaign. My opinion is based on facts.
 
Like Shiloh referred above, many countries down play or outright lie about their disease events. China is not the only one. The evidence points to the emergence of this pandemic in China so they are the subject of many discussions. I agree with Shiloh about some of the other countries that she mentioned.
 
Sharon "We all know what happened." To what are you referring? You and I have very different ideas about what has happened I am basing mine on the WHO data and statements. I do not use, and have not looked at, Twitter, Facebook or similar. I also do not read many newspaper reports or watch television. I read all the published data I can lay my hands on and as many of the most interesting scientific papers as I have time for.

Your rough calculation shows what happens in some West European countries if you apply the tools and measures they had and used. Claiming that the same outbreak trajectory must have occurred in China and that they had millions of cases that they made disappear is illogical, as is saying that you are not holding S Korea to the same standard. China and S Korea have a surveillance system that allows them to look at exactly where an individual is and where they have been. S Korea can also look at your bank statement and see where you used your credit card and who else used their card in the same area at the time. In short they can test and contact trace in a way we can not. They also had SARS-1 and took the lessons learnt to heart. The laws S Korea put on the books to spy on their citizens were introduced post SARS-1 for exactly this eventuality. In China they completely revamped their pneumonia reporting system so they could pick up small changes in atypical case numbers in real time. There is no reason to assume China should have the same number of cases as any other country as it is unique in the way it has attempted to control the epidemic and if we had had their ability to control our populations we would probably have done as well or better.
The difference in the quality of healthcare systems is totally irrelevant to your argument as it relates to clinical outcomes and has no bearing on the number of infections per head of population. Are our healthcare systems better at treating COVID patients and if so why? China shipped 40,000 HCWs into the epicenter and Bruce Aylward's team were shocked by how well equipped the hospitals were in terms of Ventilators, ECMO and CT scanners. Neither I or China or WHO are claiming TCM prevented, or had any impact on spread, they did not have our numbers because they tested, contact traced and isolated positives and all their contacts.

I have not tried to deflect your issues with China, I do not have any, by comparison with the US, they are in no way comparable and are not my problem. I think China and S Korea's numbers are a lot more comparable to those from Europe although they have used different tools to solve the same problem.

Good luck with trying to bring any country before a court as none will submit themselves. Neither China or the US are state parties to the ICC.

Shiloh the WHO were on the ground before, during and are still no the ground there is a permanent office in country. They were not escorted and chaperoned I suggest you listen to Bruce Aylward's press conference which should clear up that false assumption. There was a lot of US press chatter about why China did not invite in a US CDC team but why would they? The US was obviously not a friendly state to China and the expertise in dealing with SARS-1 was not in the US but in China, S Korea and Canada. Unlike Sharon you seem to think that "draconian measures worked there" and as I stated earlier I think this is why they did not have the case numbers Sharon is accusing them of hiding. No I have also made it clear I would not want to live under their system but that is quite different to saying it is an almost ideal system for controlling an epidemic because of the draconian measures it allows you to take to control the viral vectors (your human population).
 
China knew they had a communicable disease and let everyone go on new years vacation all around the world.. that doesn't sound like good disease management
 
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